Help me decide if I buy FSD this weekend, or not! ONCE AND FOR ALL.

[daniel]

Did I miss something? TSLA has hit the stratosphere without being anywhere near FSD. It did it by making the best cars around, even without FSD.

Or maybe you mean that if you'd believed in FSD you'd have bought a bunch of shares and that would have paid off even though the assumption would have been wrong?

Or you're making a joke that went over my head?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Did I miss something? TSLA has hit the stratosphere without being anywhere near FSD. It did it by making the best cars around, even without FSD.

Or maybe you mean that if you'd believed in FSD you'd have bought a bunch of shares and that would have paid off even though the assumption would have been wrong?

Or you're making a joke that went over my head?

The market is forward looking. Tesla is making the exact same cars it made a year ago (I suppose they added a taller Model 3 but that should have already been priced in). The only logical explanation for the share price increase is that FSD is working.
From the conference call yesterday:
"And we're currently testing Full Self-Driving software for intersections and city streets and narrow streets. So I personally tested the latest Alpha build of the Full Self-Driving software when I drive my car, and it is really, I think, profoundly better than people realize, yes, really profound. It's like amazing.
So it's almost getting to a point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions despite going through construction and widely varying situations. So this is why I'm very confident about its Full Self-Driving functionality being complete by the end of this year. It's because I'm literally driving it."
"So They seem to have just like a giant Improvement. Probably roll it out later this year. But, you know, it'll be able to do traffic lights, stops, turns, everything, you know pretty much and then it will be a long march of nines essentially. So definitely way better than human, but how much better is going to be?"

The funny thing is that I still don't believe! I do believe that markets are usually efficient though so the cognitive dissonance is upsetting.

 

[daniel]

The market is forward looking. Tesla is making the exact same cars it made a year ago (I suppose they added a taller Model 3 but that should have already been priced in). The only logical explanation for the share price increase is that FSD is working.
From the conference call yesterday:
"And we're currently testing Full Self-Driving software for intersections and city streets and narrow streets. So I personally tested the latest Alpha build of the Full Self-Driving software when I drive my car, and it is really, I think, profoundly better than people realize, yes, really profound. It's like amazing.
So it's almost getting to a point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions despite going through construction and widely varying situations. So this is why I'm very confident about its Full Self-Driving functionality being complete by the end of this year. It's because I'm literally driving it."
"So They seem to have just like a giant Improvement. Probably roll it out later this year. But, you know, it'll be able to do traffic lights, stops, turns, everything, you know pretty much and then it will be a long march of nines essentially. So definitely way better than human, but how much better is going to be?"

The funny thing is that I still don't believe! I do believe that markets are usually efficient though so the cognitive dissonance is upsetting.

I believe that the package of driver-assist options they choose to call the "FSD" options package is getting better and will get better. What I don't believe is that it will move from Level 2 (constant driver supervision required; driver responsible for the decision to take over) to Level 3 (driver attention not required; the car is responsible for telling the driver when the driver must take over) any time soon.

Of course, when Elon says "Full Self-Driving functionality [...] complete..." he's referring to the concept of "feature complete," wherein all the features exist but are still at a level of reliability that demands they be used as Level 2, not Level 3 or 4. No taking your hands off the wheel yet. On the plus side, in spite of all the hype and over-enthusiasm and Elon-level optimism, I don't believe that Tesla will release an unsafe system. When they finally go to Level 3, it will be safe at level 3, and the same for Level 4. I expect to be ready to trade up to the latest model when that time comes.

The markets are surprisingly good and also prone to wild flights of silliness, thus we get bubbles and crashes. Tesla has enormous upside potential but I think that the present peak is due to inexperienced investors on Robin Hood. I'm hoping it hits 1,700 again and I'll sell another small handful of shares.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think buying call options is the best idea. Buy 667 ($6k/$9 a piece) Jun 2021 call options @450. This gives some time just in case the robotaxi schedule slips to 2021. That should put Tesla's valuation at least equivalent to Waymo's estimated valuation of $175 billion which would be $977 a share. That works out to $351,509 which should be more than enough to pay for the FSD package even after the price increases.

Wow, stock is down a lot today! Even after the drop someone following my advice would still be able to afford FSD.

 

[daniel]

Oh. That was a joke. Okay. I almost fell for it.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think buying call options is the best idea. Buy 667 ($6k/$9 a piece) Jun 2021 call options @450. This gives some time just in case the robotaxi schedule slips to 2021. That should put Tesla's valuation at least equivalent to Waymo's estimated valuation of $175 billion which would be $977 a share. That works out to $351,509 which should be more than enough to pay for the FSD package even after the price increases.

I think the options would have expired today. Someone who followed my advice instead of buying FSD 2 years ago would have made $1,692,712.60.
I wish I had believed in Tesla's ability to achieve FSD.

 

[techlogik]

It's a myth. Only Beta users, 2000 of them, even have the ability to use the advanced features. The rest is glorified adaptive cruise control and lane keep assist. It can't be trusted IMO.

If they want to do a $50/mo subscription, I would be onboard for that...otherwise, useless in typical commuting mixed driving at this time.

 

[Microterf]

I think the options would have expired today. Someone who followed my advice instead of buying FSD 2 years ago would have made $1,692,712.60.
I wish I had believed in Tesla's ability to achieve FSD.

Btw, I read through the first 2 pages or this thread yesterday thinking it was a new one.