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Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis
- Thread starter Ktowntslafan
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- Energy Environment Policy
Ed Hart
Member
Big News: Last night at the Geneva Auto Show Banquet, Volkswagen Group CEO Matthias Muller said: "The car of the future is electric"
Now, we know VW needs to be making amends for Dieselgate, so "talking electric" is part of the strategy. However, it seems we are seeing enough energy being applied inside VW to believe this is real....especially if an affordable truly clean Diesel turns out to be impossible, as I believe is the case.
As to the Business Week story on the crash in oil prices because of EVs, that is the ultimate hypothetical. Many, many variables will play a role on the supply side of oil...and the prediction requires a lot of things to fall in place, including:
• No retreat from the current future emission and fuel economy standards…and, in fact, a possible global tightening of requirements to meet the CO2 commitments made by nations
• No retreat from incentivizing electric vehicles by states and/or federal governments
• An end to obstructionist anti-EV sales activities by traditional automakers, their attorneys, dealers and lobbyists.
• Commitments needed from cities, states, corporations and utilities to create a STANDARDIZED fast-charging charging infrastructure.
• The majority of EVs must adopt fast-charging capability
• The Gigafactory concept to quickly drive down battery costs must succeed….and deliver a 250 mile range vehicle at Honda Accord prices
I share again these graphics that show how simple a battery electric vehicle can be when compared to Diesel, gasoline or fuel cell propulsion. We can see, then, that the full focus of electric vehicle manufacturers should be on driving down the cost of batteries. I do not expect to see a Moore's Law effect on energy storage density, but I am confident there will be a Moore's Law on battery cost. Volume is the key!
Now, we know VW needs to be making amends for Dieselgate, so "talking electric" is part of the strategy. However, it seems we are seeing enough energy being applied inside VW to believe this is real....especially if an affordable truly clean Diesel turns out to be impossible, as I believe is the case.
As to the Business Week story on the crash in oil prices because of EVs, that is the ultimate hypothetical. Many, many variables will play a role on the supply side of oil...and the prediction requires a lot of things to fall in place, including:
• No retreat from the current future emission and fuel economy standards…and, in fact, a possible global tightening of requirements to meet the CO2 commitments made by nations
• No retreat from incentivizing electric vehicles by states and/or federal governments
• An end to obstructionist anti-EV sales activities by traditional automakers, their attorneys, dealers and lobbyists.
• Commitments needed from cities, states, corporations and utilities to create a STANDARDIZED fast-charging charging infrastructure.
• The majority of EVs must adopt fast-charging capability
• The Gigafactory concept to quickly drive down battery costs must succeed….and deliver a 250 mile range vehicle at Honda Accord prices
I share again these graphics that show how simple a battery electric vehicle can be when compared to Diesel, gasoline or fuel cell propulsion. We can see, then, that the full focus of electric vehicle manufacturers should be on driving down the cost of batteries. I do not expect to see a Moore's Law effect on energy storage density, but I am confident there will be a Moore's Law on battery cost. Volume is the key!
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Love that.
"The Chevrolet Volt is a complete ICE vehicle". (The BMW i8 is not apparently).
The Volt CAN run with the ICE engine broken. It CANNOT run with the electromotive drivetrain broken.
It's very hard to understand but it's an EV with a gas extender not a Plug In Prius or normal hybrid.
It always uses EV power. The gas generator is 75kW. When the battery is "dead", mash the go pedal. It pushes 120 kW. I can tell you this for a fact, kW's do not fly out of a monkey's butt, and full EV power is 120kW.
And your understanding about diesels is very poor. The "complexity" of engine controls is true for all modern vehicles, emissions or not. And no. No. No. Diesels normally run less than the allowed emissions, less CO2 than gasoline cars, and some electric cars that use coal powerplants to recharge.
VW screwed up. VW is only a fraction of diesels.
A BMW i8 with 357HP doesn't have a significantly smaller carbon footprint than a 460HP Corvette V8 pure gas car (which pretty much clobbers it as far as sportscars go for less than 1/2 the price). Both have real ICE transmissions, something Volts don't have. A Volt can't move from a stoplight using gasoline, only electricity.
"The Chevrolet Volt is a complete ICE vehicle". (The BMW i8 is not apparently).
The Volt CAN run with the ICE engine broken. It CANNOT run with the electromotive drivetrain broken.
It's very hard to understand but it's an EV with a gas extender not a Plug In Prius or normal hybrid.
It always uses EV power. The gas generator is 75kW. When the battery is "dead", mash the go pedal. It pushes 120 kW. I can tell you this for a fact, kW's do not fly out of a monkey's butt, and full EV power is 120kW.
And your understanding about diesels is very poor. The "complexity" of engine controls is true for all modern vehicles, emissions or not. And no. No. No. Diesels normally run less than the allowed emissions, less CO2 than gasoline cars, and some electric cars that use coal powerplants to recharge.
VW screwed up. VW is only a fraction of diesels.
A BMW i8 with 357HP doesn't have a significantly smaller carbon footprint than a 460HP Corvette V8 pure gas car (which pretty much clobbers it as far as sportscars go for less than 1/2 the price). Both have real ICE transmissions, something Volts don't have. A Volt can't move from a stoplight using gasoline, only electricity.
Ed Hart
Member
"And your understanding about diesels is very poor. The "complexity" of engine controls is true for all modern vehicles, emissions or not. And no. No. No. Diesels normally run less than the allowed emissions, less CO2 than gasoline cars, and some electric cars that use coal powerplants to recharge."[/QUOTE]
Yes, Diesels are more efficient than gasoline engines because Diesels burn fuel at much higher temperatures, extracting more energy. Inherently, then, Diesels generate less CO2 per mile. But, these higher temperatures are what cause a higher percentage of nitrogen to combine with oxygen to form oxides of nitrogen, or NOX (typically NO or NO2). To cool the combustion slightly, exhaust gas is recirculated into the combustion chamber to dilute the O2 in the intake airstream; this EGR valve is controlled based on load demand. (EGR was probably also reduced during the VW cheat in order to boost performance). After leaving the engine, Diesel exhaust goes through a very complex set of after treatment devices, as show in this video link from VW:
VW Touareg TDI and Audi Q7 Adblue emissions explained - YouTube
A number of these sub-system are not present in a gasoline engine after treatment system, including the Diesel particulate trap, urea tank, urea injector and a Diesel exhaust deNOX catalyzer. It is not easy to clean up any engine; Diesels are tougher.
Yes, I understand that Europeans have been more focused on CO2 than some of the other emissions, but they now realize they are paying a price. Diesels are polluting their cities with a particularly nasty set of pollutants, including fine particulates not present in gasoline engines. For those of us in Los Angeles, knocking down NOX was the key to cleaning up our air, and it has worked!
In January, 2016, VW produced an excellent - albeit defensive - video on how emissions are controlled on a Diesel and also tells how they cheated.
How Do Modern Diesel Engines Work? VW Explains It On Video
BTW: I was told that even in a well-controlled Diesel with urea injection (often referred to in the trade as panther piss!) a small amount of ammonia into the atmosphere. But because no one every imagined spraying urea into the exhaust system back when emission standards were written, ammonia (and other stuff) is not a controlled pollutant.
The VW cheat answers the question we engineers have had for over a decade: how the hell does VW do it?!
Sadly, other companies will probably also be caught cheating....in part driven by a demand on the company's engineers that "If VW can do it, then so can we!"
Yes, Diesels are more efficient than gasoline engines because Diesels burn fuel at much higher temperatures, extracting more energy. Inherently, then, Diesels generate less CO2 per mile. But, these higher temperatures are what cause a higher percentage of nitrogen to combine with oxygen to form oxides of nitrogen, or NOX (typically NO or NO2). To cool the combustion slightly, exhaust gas is recirculated into the combustion chamber to dilute the O2 in the intake airstream; this EGR valve is controlled based on load demand. (EGR was probably also reduced during the VW cheat in order to boost performance). After leaving the engine, Diesel exhaust goes through a very complex set of after treatment devices, as show in this video link from VW:
VW Touareg TDI and Audi Q7 Adblue emissions explained - YouTube
A number of these sub-system are not present in a gasoline engine after treatment system, including the Diesel particulate trap, urea tank, urea injector and a Diesel exhaust deNOX catalyzer. It is not easy to clean up any engine; Diesels are tougher.
Yes, I understand that Europeans have been more focused on CO2 than some of the other emissions, but they now realize they are paying a price. Diesels are polluting their cities with a particularly nasty set of pollutants, including fine particulates not present in gasoline engines. For those of us in Los Angeles, knocking down NOX was the key to cleaning up our air, and it has worked!
In January, 2016, VW produced an excellent - albeit defensive - video on how emissions are controlled on a Diesel and also tells how they cheated.
How Do Modern Diesel Engines Work? VW Explains It On Video
BTW: I was told that even in a well-controlled Diesel with urea injection (often referred to in the trade as panther piss!) a small amount of ammonia into the atmosphere. But because no one every imagined spraying urea into the exhaust system back when emission standards were written, ammonia (and other stuff) is not a controlled pollutant.
The VW cheat answers the question we engineers have had for over a decade: how the hell does VW do it?!
Sadly, other companies will probably also be caught cheating....in part driven by a demand on the company's engineers that "If VW can do it, then so can we!"
All VW has to do to reduce NOx is to reprogram the engine, but the mileage and HP will suffer. By reducing the injector duration and retarding the injection timing, boost falls, NOx levels fall, HP falls, and mileage falls. When you race diesel engines, you advance the timing and increase the shot to make more boost, which is a violation of EPA and CARB restrictions if done on street licensed vehicles.
Ford, Dodge, and GM have all solved the diesel particulate and NOx emissions problems. VW just wanted better mileage and HP and cheated to do it.
Ford, Dodge, and GM have all solved the diesel particulate and NOx emissions problems. VW just wanted better mileage and HP and cheated to do it.
Ed Hart
Member
All correct. I would add that Mercedes appears to have simply shut off the entire Diesel emission control system (low EGR and no urea injection) below 50F!! If true, someone there needs to have a cell next to the VW guys.
If you look at tables for most ICE engines, you will see scalar tables (1D tables, not 2D or 3D) that affect various emissions test loops so they don't "code" on startup.
But IAT (intake air temp, pre-turbo) shut-off should be far lower than 50°F. That sounds like deliberate tampering with emissions controls.
For racing, you zero out all those tables. When you run very high boost levels, with modest fueling and a shiit-load of injector timing advance, the engines run very, very clean. But the NOx levels are off the charts. Run enough boost, and you can actually ignite the aluminum piston crowns, this starts to be an issue at about 45PSIG boost and up. This is what killed our first year at Bonneville Salt Flats. We did set a record, but ate up all 8 pistons in the process and destroyed a $30,000 engine. We were running 75psig of boost by using compound turbocharging.
But IAT (intake air temp, pre-turbo) shut-off should be far lower than 50°F. That sounds like deliberate tampering with emissions controls.
For racing, you zero out all those tables. When you run very high boost levels, with modest fueling and a shiit-load of injector timing advance, the engines run very, very clean. But the NOx levels are off the charts. Run enough boost, and you can actually ignite the aluminum piston crowns, this starts to be an issue at about 45PSIG boost and up. This is what killed our first year at Bonneville Salt Flats. We did set a record, but ate up all 8 pistons in the process and destroyed a $30,000 engine. We were running 75psig of boost by using compound turbocharging.
