Here's How Tesla will launch the 'Tesla Network' as L2 ADAS!

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Alternatively, they'll just try to tell people how much the new processor will improve FSD, to try to get more people to pay for it before the "price increase" on May 1st.

The autonomy-or-bust companies like Waymo and Cruise are wanting to make money by running a fleet of taxis, so it makes sense that they _have_ taxis, where the Tesla Network is a way of selling cars.

 

[VT_EE]

So Elon might pull off another hat trick. I have always considered the initial launch of AP1 to be dangerous only because Tesla allowed up to 30 mins of no nags and put absolutely no restrictions on it. Now they are learning but the 4 deaths that have happened with AP could have been avoided. But since actual full autonomy isn't here and won't be here for a while, although Elon has been saying its "two years away" since 2015.

Elon will no doubt continue to deceive and say that FSD is here. But since he can't deliver, he will instead will do 'FSD' as a L2 system. I have believed this before but now i know i'm right Looks like i was right. Elon will try to launch "Tesla Network" as L2 ADAS. It will be a uber-like Bird/Limes with pick up spots in downtowns and parking lots. The driver being responsible.

It will be similar to AP but for streets. It will require a driver and require the driver to pay attention to supervise the "FSD" system. Here's why Its brazen, brilliant & dangerous but might actually work.

Its brazen because it relies on untrained drivers who ain't familiar with Teslas to be attentive. Its brilliant because it solves the problem of waiting for L5 (L4 everywhere), increases mind-share, adds revenue, app market-share, but continues myth that Teslas are actually self-driving and are the leader. Dangerous because people will die as result.

It will be a Uber-like Bird/Limes/MoGo. There will be two ride options, miles base and time(hours) based.
There will pickup spots which are also drop off spots around downtown areas and parking lots in downtown around the country.

Miles Based Option:

You go to a pick up spot, use your phone and request a ride to your destination, it will select a drop off spot closest to your destination, it will assign you a car which you get in.
And it will drive with you as the driver and will alert you to be fully prepared to take over at any time that you have to accept. They will also use the rear mirror camera to watch you to make sure you don't fall asleep or do anything crazy (would be crazy if they just relied on the wacky steering sensor). Once you get to the pick-up spot that is closet to your destination, it will park and you get out and go about your day.

Time Base Option:

The car will take you to any destination with you supervising. You get out, do whatever you want to do and then when its time to drop the car back, you get in and have it navigate to the closest pickup/drop off.

This is similar to electric scooters bikes that are based on hours(time) based not miles based, so you are allotted say 6 hours and you can take it home, run errands, etc.

This can actually work and allow Elon to still claim FSD, winning mind-shares as people will continue to believe Teslas are self driving, while also making money. It will technically still be "Tesla Network". But there will be casualties.

This makes a lot of sense. I wouldn’t be surprised at all with a Zip Car on steroids Tesla Network. The driver is there for weird edge cases, but for the most part, the car does 99.99% of the driving. Getting someone else to pay for the vehicle depreciation is smart.

 

[CarlK]

Alternatively, they'll just try to tell people how much the new processor will improve FSD, to try to get more people to pay for it before the "price increase" on May 1st.

The autonomy-or-bust companies like Waymo and Cruise are wanting to make money by running a fleet of taxis, so it makes sense that they _have_ taxis, where the Tesla Network is a way of selling cars.

April 22 is an investor day not an unveil event. That should give you the clue of what it's about. In his master plan part deux Elon said this. "In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are." Tesla does have its sight on Uber, Lyft and likes.

 

[electronblue]

Didn't you just describe Turo?

Not quite (but in many ways of course). The difference would be the autonomous features of the car managing the geofencing and other similar potential security features of the network.

I agree this whole theory is ”out there”. Just trying to wrap head around what Tesla might do with the Tesla Network assuming Level 3-5 driving is out of the question in the short-term (and possibly medium-term).

 

[OPRCE]

Autonomous cars have to be 2x better than the best human drivers.

Odds are the better drivers will be those that adopt self-driving cars first. We're likely older, more educated, and have more stable lives.

So why in world would we engage L3/L4 (as in unsupervised) autonomous driving on a car that wasn't significantly better at driving than ourselves?

Some rough calculations:

Avg. drivers produce 1 death every 1.8M miles

Teslas on AP produce 1 death every 3.4M miles

"Amnon Shashua, CEO of Israeli autonomous vehicle computing company Mobileye, says cars with 360-degree cameras and front facing radar could drive autonomously, but they would not be as safe as human drivers. Careful humans can drive 10 million hours without a mistake leading to a fatal crash, but cars without full redundant sensors cannot, he said."
Tesla gears up for fully self-driving cars amid skepticism

At avg 30mph = 300M miles for 1 fatality from own fault for "careful human" driver, defined let us say as one who obeys all rules of road [including speed limits] and is never distracted, drunk or asleep.

Then we arbitrarily allow the faults of all avg drivers on the road will worsen CHD's score 6x down to 50M.

Tesla still needs to improve AP/FSD performance by a factor of ~15 to rival that of a CHD.

It is a tall order, no doubt.

 

[mongo]

Some rough calculations:

Avg. drivers produce 1 death every 1.8M miles

Teslas on AP produce 1 death every 3.4M miles

"Amnon Shashua, CEO of Israeli autonomous vehicle computing company Mobileye, says cars with 360-degree cameras and front facing radar could drive autonomously, but they would not be as safe as human drivers. Careful humans can drive 10 million hours without a mistake leading to a fatal crash, but cars without full redundant sensors cannot, he said."
Tesla gears up for fully self-driving cars amid skepticism

At avg 30mph = 300M miles for 1 fatality from own fault for "careful human" driver, defined let us say as one who obeys all rules of road [including speed limits] and is never distracted, drunk or asleep.

Then we arbitrarily allow the faults of all avg drivers on the road will worsen CHD's score 6x down to 50M.

Tesla still needs to improve AP/FSD performance by a factor of ~15 to rival that of a CHD.

It is a tall order, no doubt.

Teslas have over 1.2 billion miles of AP usage. Based on your 3.4 million number, there have been 353 deaths due to autopilot. Seems high. You need to separate 'mistake leading to a fatal crash' and being in a fatal crash.
Tesla's have redundant sensor where is counts, looking straight ahead.

 

[CarlK]

Teslas have over 1.2 billion miles of AP usage. Based on your 3.4 million number, there have been 353 deaths due to autopilot. Seems high. You need to separate 'mistake leading to a fatal crash' and being in a fatal crash.
Tesla's have redundant sensor where is counts, looking straight ahead.

Not only that but the CHD argument is just a cop out invented by someone who does not want to see autonomous cars because his company is hehind. George Hotz once said the only thing Mobileye did well was know how to lobby regulators to restrict technologies it does not have. Even if you agree with that hilarious (even that he did say it with a straight face) CHD argument we can still disallow only CHD to buy autonomous cars and let average drivers to use them. Probably should mandate drivers with bad record to use only autonomous cars.

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla gives update on Tesla Network including glimpse at ride-sharing app.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/22/tesla-robotaxi-network-self-driving-fleet-ride-sharing-cars/