How is Tesla going to meet 2017 goals for service centers and superchargers

[eye.surgeon]

I'm interested in people's thoughts on how Tesla is going to meet their 2017 goals for expanded superchargers and service centers prior to the launch of the M3. It seems like an almost insurmountable job, especially when I look at the Tesla map of new superchargers in the permit stage. There's like a dozen or so in the US right now when it seems like there should be many times that in order to meet their stated goal. I thought for sure there would be a service center here in Fresno in time for the M3 launch, but as far as I can see there aren't any new service centers at all in the permit stage in the whole western US. What am I missing here? The goals seems so far from the actual ground game.

 

[dhanson865]

I'm interested in people's thoughts on how Tesla is going to meet their 2017 goals for expanded superchargers and service centers prior to the launch of the M3. It seems like an almost insurmountable job, especially when I look at the Tesla map of new superchargers in the permit stage. There's like a dozen or so in the US right now when it seems like there should be many times that in order to meet their stated goal. I thought for sure there would be a service center here in Fresno in time for the M3 launch, but as far as I can see there aren't any new service centers at all in the permit stage in the whole western US. What am I missing here? The goals seems so far from the actual ground game.

Good question. I hope we are pleasantly surprised but I haven't seen any signs of movement on service centers en masse.

Superchargers can spring up almost overnight so I'm not worried about not seeing those. When the cars are being produced they can ramp up the supercharger locations in a quarters time easily.

Getting staff hired/trained and getting buildings built/remodeled takes a lot longer.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Perhaps through partnerships with existing repair chains, gas stations, restaurants, other car manufacturers?

 

[Az_Rael]

With the talk of the expanded Ranger program from Tesla, I think they are giving up on meeting the service center goals mentioned during the 3 reveal.

I dont know how many service centers have opened since the event, but it is not even close to what they were projecting during the reveal.

 

[TexasEV]

It seems like an almost insurmountable job, especially when I look at the Tesla map of new superchargers in the permit stage. There's like a dozen or so in the US right now when it seems like there should be many times that in order to meet their stated goal.

There is no such thing as a Tesla map of new superchargers in the permit stage. If you're referring to supercharge.info, that's organized by a TMC member based on crowdsourced information. Who knows how many sites are permitted or even under construction that haven't been found yet by our intrepid reporters?

 

[DrGuest]

I asked a Service Center Technician how many cars are needed in a city to get a Service Center and the answer was roughly 150 Cars/city. I am hoping that when we get 150 cars in the whole State of Montana, which has the population of some cities, Tesla might put a Service Center in Bozeman or Helena. I think there are less than 50 Model S/X & Roadsters in the whole state so far, and we currently use SLC, UT for our service. I'd think any Montanan would be glad to drive anywhere in Montana for Service as opposed to Salt Lake City, Denver or Seattle. Does anyone have a guess how many Tesla's there are in Montana, now? Mine was the first and I knew the owner of the first 6 or 7 but have lost track a while ago. Yesterday I saw 2 Model X's here in Bozeman in less than an hour, so the numbers are growing.

 

[Pdub2015]

Do you have a link to the 2017 goals, or perhaps you could summarize them here for this discussion?

 

[cpa]

I believe that the recommissioned Ranger service will be the nonce solution to opening up service centers. The additional labor costs to Tesla will be a fraction of the costs of leasing/buying real estate, utilities, property taxes, service managers and assistants, that are at every service center. It might take six-twelve months to get the kinks ironed out before the service is reasonably prompt and efficient. My personal experiences with the Fresno Ranger included two trips to the Service Center (new motor, replace the battery cooling system) and two home visits (window repair, new 12V). Tomorrow the Ranger will do the odd-year service here as well.

Fresno is fairly close to Monterey/Seaside, so I do not think that we will be getting a service center until well after the Model 3 is released, and Tesla determines how many owners are in the Central Valley.

I would think that for those in more remote areas of the country might see a few pop up to take the strain off places like Denver. I do not know how large Denver's service territory is, but it has to be quite a chunk of real estate.

 

[CT200h]

Service centers are expensive , but I just don't see Tesla getting away with what they have now.
The good thing is Tesla can be flexible on choosing an existing building as they did in Maryland and near richmond Va.( former furniture store)
An existing retail building that's vacant can be turned over into a SC rather quickly. Especially if it's already setup as a car service shop. Former dealerships , or Sears auto centers. They better get moving , these cars will need repairs and no one in the aftermarket can work on them so they don't have that to fall back on.
I do tend to be on the pessimistic side on the production estimates myself so I'm betting they have a bit more time to build service capacity.

 

[Az_Rael]

Do you have a link to the 2017 goals, or perhaps you could summarize them here for this discussion?

441 service locations worldwide by the end of 2017

 

[mikevbf]

View attachment 216588

441 service locations worldwide by the end of 2017

If memory serves right (which it might not) I believe they made the goal a little grayer by saying 441 sales and service not specifying how many would be new sales outlets and how many would be service.

 

[Az_Rael]

If memory serves right (which it might not) I believe they made the goal a little grayer by saying 441 sales and service not specifying how many would be new sales outlets and how many would be service.

That is possible. Question is the 215 worldwide number from March 2016 just SCs or SCs plus sales locations.

Edit: you are correct. I listened to the audio and he was talking sales AND service locations.

 

[FlatSix911]

I'm interested in people's thoughts on how Tesla is going to meet their 2017 goals for expanded superchargers and service centers prior to the launch of the M3. It seems like an almost insurmountable job, especially when I look at the Tesla map of new superchargers in the permit stage. There's like a dozen or so in the US right now when it seems like there should be many times that in order to meet their stated goal. I thought for sure there would be a service center here in Fresno in time for the M3 launch, but as far as I can see there aren't any new service centers at all in the permit stage in the whole western US. What am I missing here? The goals seems so far from the actual ground game.

Tesla just opened a Giga Service Center in Santa Clara to relieve some of he backlog in the Bay Area
It's not connected to a Tesla showroom or sales center ... just a giant service center in an industrial area.

Santa Clara Service Center -- Location confirmed, construction started

 

[Doug_G]

Most likely they will NOT roll out anywhere near that number of service centers in time for the Model 3 launch. They've promised a location here for years and have yet to execute.

These things take time - and staff to design the locations, get building permits, etc. At the same time, if they build it all out and Model 3 is delayed all of these expensive assets and personnel will be sitting idle.

So my best bet is that they'll commit to the buildout late, the initial Model 3 release and service will be chaotic, and then they'll eventually catch up. Exactly like what happened for Model S, only bigger.

 

[jimmyjohn]

I think Tesla will attempt to bring on Carmax to support this function.

 

[jbcarioca]

I think Tesla will attempt to bring on Carmax to support this function.

On one basis or another Tesla and CarMax probably will cooperate. That already seems vestigially true with tradein valuations.

CarMax certainly could help with, say, CPO disposition, and maybe some other functions. However CarMax has only ~150 locations, all in the US and almost all in suburban major population centers. In almost all of those except TX, MI and other anti-non-franchise laws CarMax is located near existing Tesla facilities.

So, the major Tesla 2017/2018 issues in distribution and support are similar almost everywhere they operate worldwide:

1. Need about one sales facility for every ~500 vehicles sold annually, on average. Obviously they need coverage in some smaller areas, compensated by high volume major urban locations. That means roughly 1000 facilities by 2019, compared with ~200 less than six months ago.
2. Need service center or equivalent for every 1000 vehicles in service. Some other brands work with servicing for vastly higher fleet numbers but they all have vehicles, especially older ones, serviced by third parties without mfr direct control.
That suggests something in the order of 1500 facilities by end 2019.
Both of those depend largely on Model 3 buildup. The major issue is how Tesla will accomplish that and the Supercharger buildout also.

I think there will be third party cooperation on all three areas, with Superchargers almost a certainty and sales and service both certainties in several non-NA markets with fairly high probabilities of substantial cooperation with AutoNation, CarMax and/or other large multi-brand companies. Elon has dropped small hints in years past. Now something of the sort is becoming a necessity, in my opinion. As a relevant aside Mike Jackson has paid lots of attention to Tesla:
AutoNation CEO to Tesla's Elon Musk: Call me maybe!

 

[TexasEV]

I don't think Tesla will give in to the possible short term gain of collaborating with dealers. At least I hope not. In the long term we're better off breaking the auto dealer cartel, both for Tesla, the EV startups coming, and consumers. .

 

[cpa]

What makes sense to me is that Tesla could open private, undisclosed service facilities that have one or more resident Rangers. I know that there are scores of locations near me in industrial parks or the like that have 1200 ft^2 spaces for rent for less than $1,000 per month. Tesla could install a lift and a secure storage locker for parts and be able to pick our cars up and take them to these secret locations for the repairs that cannot be done on site. The Ranger could disable the geotracking of our cars when they pick it up for service. This way, the customer won't know where these clandestine repair shops are, and drop by to bug the technicians.

This would certainly be less expensive than hauling a car hundreds of miles to a Service Center for repairs that cannot be done in our driveways.

 

[eye.surgeon]

I see that as a viable option for a boutique specialty manufacturer like Tesla used to be. For a half million cars a year? No way.

 

[SageBrush]

Independent mechanics, sooner rather than later.
This also strikes me as the obvious run-around the idiotic franchise monopoly.

And it solves the problem of low density area Tesla owners. The Model S and X were expensive enough to mostly be concentrated in urban areas but the lower priced Model 3 will be less so.

I can imagine a two tier service structure that funnels the more complex repairs to the Tesla centers. I know Elon is enamored with constant innovation and improvement but it sure stresses the service infrastructure and limits company options. The promised simplicity of the Model 3 is going to have to be for maintenance and repairs, not just manufacturing.

This will all look obvious in retrospect as part of a nascent industry maturation.