How many of you will/may transition to CyberTruck?

[johnnycnote]

Too true - except for the loss of market momentum. Being able to be in the news via having delivered even the handful that they already have, keeps people thinking they're in the game. But they've got to get those battery prices down or they're going to die. Then again, maybe that's not a bad thing.

Agree, but a see another bailout in the horizon...

 

[johnnycnote]

Your guest for this year is probably in the right ballpark. Although delivering $500 wouldn't be a big surprise, nor that much of a feat for Tesla. However I can't imagine Tesla not delivering at least 50k units next year. Once they get the factory running, there's no reason not to keep it humming. All this, of course, depends on battery supply. I believe the long delay has been because of that. So, if they actually do have it fixed, then deliveries can go on. But, if they can't produce those big cells at rate, it ain't happening!

I meant 60k in 2024. Tesla has refined it's manufacturing process and learned a lot over the last 10 years. I agree, no reason to believe that they won't ramp up very quickly

 

[johnnycnote]

Rivian is losing more than Ford/GM with every EV and has *zero* highly profitable ICE sales to offset those losses... or the economies of scale Ford is deploying by using a lot of ICE parts from the F150 for the F150 Lightning

once folks realize that pretty much every EV can be charged at SuperChargers (without even using an adapater starting late next year)... EV sales will pick up.

That's the point though. Even though Ford is repurposing parts, they are still loosing money on their EVs. Plus it looks like Rivian will be profitable in 2024. Not so much any EV from legacy auto, especially with the UAW adding to the fire

 

[texas_star_TM3]

That's the point though. Even though Ford is repurposing parts, they are still loosing money on their EVs. Plus it looks like Rivian will be profitable in 2024. Not so much any EV from legacy auto, especially with the UAW adding to the fire

https://www.motortrend.com/news/rivian-loss-per-vehicle/#:~:text=In%20its%20Q2%202023%20letter,How%20could%20this%20be%3F

 

[uscbucsfan]

From the sound of it, Elon thinks the CT will either lose money or be close as well.

 

[johnnycnote]

https://www.motortrend.com/news/rivian-loss-per-vehicle/#:~:text=In%20its%20Q2%202023%20letter,How%20could%20this%20be%3F

I hear you, and no one is denying the fact that Rivian is loosing cash with every vehicle it sells. The point is that Rivian's quarter over quarter trend is positive and the expectation is that Rivian will be positive in 2024. From the Motortrend article you posted:

"...While Rivian lost over $32,500 per vehicle in Q2, in Q1 it was losing $67,329 per vehicle, and $124,162 per vehicle in the quarter before that. As long as Rivian continues to increase its production volume and potentially introduce new models, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the EV start up..."

Those are solid production savings in a very short period of time. IMHO, legacy manufacturers will get there eventually, but as of right now, they haven't even reached the tunnel

 

[HankLloydRight]

It's amazing that Ford makes any money at all. With Dealers ripping people off and vehicles not selling because of high prices and high interest rates. Dealers still markup their vehicles. Check out what this dealer is selling these vehicles for vs the sticker price.

New Ford Trucks in Franklin, MA | Franklin Ford

Visit us to shop a large selection of new Ford Trucks at Franklin Ford. We have something for everyone. Shop online or visit us in Franklin, MA for a test drive today.

www.franklinford.com

By the time the vehicles hit the dealer lots, Ford [the company] has already sold the cars (to the dealers).

What happens to the cars on the dealer lot does not effect Ford [the company] sales.

And as mentioned the dealer gouging is mostly a myth.

edit: Yes, of course good ole' supply and demand and interest rates effect Ford [the company], but dealer markups do not.

 

[voyager]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714952036901400684

 

[texas_star_TM3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714952036901400684

I think early adopters might see the Service Center more than they like...

 

[lowtek]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714952036901400684

He didn't say "We dug our own grave" when I was listening, at what point did he say those words?

 

[SO16]

He didn't say "We dug our own grave" when I was listening, at what point did he say those words?

At 29:32 but I don’t think it’s as horrible as what some make it out to be when listened to in its entirety.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1BdxYrakZlAKX

 

[T3SLAROD]

He saying they dug their own grave by putting out a price without knowing what the economy would be like 5 years later.

The market right now is not right for $50K+ vehicles that aren’t future classics.

 

[aerodyne]

Really? With all the production equipment already in place and in testing. With numerous public statements for which they would get in serious trouble, as to investment guidance. With Tesla's now proven track record with building out factories, etc, you seriously don't believe they'll begin producing trucks for more than 2 years?

I'm one of many ex Tesla fans, but, were I a betting man, I'd put a thousand at 10 to 1 odds, that we'll see the first shipments this year.

Let's revisit this around Christmas, shall we?

Christmas is coming, and the last earnings call was not encouraging.

 

[electrifyme]

Never believed the 39k price. Wishful thinking for most. Elon being Elon... BSer.

 

[voyager]

Never believed the 39k price. Wishful thinking for most. Elon being Elon... BSer.

¨Addressing all of these manufacturing and engineering issues is likely to have substantially pushed up the price of the Cybertruck. Musk initially said the pickup’s price would start below $40,000. However, by 2021 those attractive price estimates had already been removed from Tesla’s website. Musk told shareholders last year that the vehicle’s specifications and pricing had changed since its introduction in 2019."

Leaked Tesla report shows Cybertruck had basic design flaws

“Alpha” version had problems with braking, handling, noise, and leaks.

arstechnica.com

 

[texas_star_TM3]

¨Addressing all of these manufacturing and engineering issues is likely to have substantially pushed up the price of the Cybertruck. Musk initially said the pickup’s price would start below $40,000. However, by 2021 those attractive price estimates had already been removed from Tesla’s website. Musk told shareholders last year that the vehicle’s specifications and pricing had changed since its introduction in 2019."

Leaked Tesla report shows Cybertruck had basic design flaws

“Alpha” version had problems with braking, handling, noise, and leaks.

arstechnica.com

that's the risk when you roll something out which is clearly more a "concept" or "design study" than anything else and later have to figure out how to mass produce it and how it actually drives and how to produce it while not exceeding costs... it pains me to see Tesla now pouring engineering resources into a product which can only be sold in North America and will never have the market size to spread out costs/economies of scale like the 3 and Y

 

[T3SLAROD]

that's the risk when you roll something out which is clearly more a "concept" or "design study" than anything else and later have to figure out how to mass produce it and how it actually drives and how to produce it while not exceeding costs... it pains me to see Tesla now pouring engineering resources into a product which can only be sold in North America and will never have the market size to spread out costs/economies of scale like the 3 and Y

Agreed. The CT won’t sell in mass quantities outside of NA. Although I do believe it will be the most stolen vehicle in NA.

Cartels are anxiously awaiting its arrival

 

[lowtek]

that's the risk when you roll something out which is clearly more a "concept" or "design study" than anything else and later have to figure out how to mass produce it and how it actually drives and how to produce it while not exceeding costs... it pains me to see Tesla now pouring engineering resources into a product which can only be sold in North America and will never have the market size to spread out costs/economies of scale like the 3 and Y

Eh? The truck has potential to do amazingly well for Tesla in NA. Since UAW is basically forcing Ford out of business there's the bonus of that gap to fill.

Also curious how you know there wasn't a detailed design study?

Also curious how you know they didn't figure out how to mass produce it?

Also curious how you know the amount being poured into engineering and resources?

But nobody around here has a crystal ball so let's see what happens before condemning Tesla, just take a look at their history of executing. Elon gets overly ambitious about timelines but the team executes well.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Eh? The truck has potential to do amazingly well for Tesla in NA. Since UAW is basically forcing Ford out of business there's the bonus of that gap to fill.

Also curious how you know there wasn't a detailed design study?

Also curious how you know they didn't figure out how to mass produce it?

Also curious how you know the amount being poured into engineering and resources?

But nobody around here has a crystal ball so let's see what happens before condemning Tesla, just take a look at their history of executing. Elon gets overly ambitious about timelines but the team executes well.

exoskeleton ! --> not really
500 miles of range ! --> would be highly surprising
Tesla armored glass ! --> from reporting it's just normal glass

also the UAW is not forcing Ford out of business... and The Cybertruck ain't competing with a F150 gasoline or a HD F250 / F350

again... a detailed design study at roll-out... but ~4 yrs later we still dont have specs or pricing?

 

[StanMI]

Not to turn is thread hostile, but I must comment on the U.A.W. knock.

What they are doing is trying to get back some (not all) of what they gave back with the last contract. None of the Big 3 would be in business today without the concessions that were agreed to in the last contract. Anybody on here know someone who hasn't had a wage increase in 8 years.........it's time