A very significant percentage of my net worth is in TSLA. I'm very confident that TSLA will be worth more in 10 years than it is today. I would say the chance of it doubling in 10 years is over 95%. Odds of being 5x today is 80%. 10x growth 50%. 20x growth 20%. This is based on how I see TSLA disrupting multiple trillion dollar industries. Others have posted calculations, so I won't rehash. This is more of a - What's your best guess growth estimate with probabilities of achieving it as you see it thread.
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Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
The uncertainty of such long term estimates make complicated models less applicable. Too many guesses need to be made with respect to the parameters. So I stick with a very simple model:
The company is growing at 50 % per year. This seems to be the upper limit for its growth.
The value of the company lags behind that, so let's guess 30 % compounded growth. In 10 years this yields 13.8x (1.3^10).
Of course the growth rate may soften going forward. But I do not see any fundamental reason for this on the horizon
- the market is big enough
- the CEO is ambitious enough
- finding enough money to finance growth is available or becomes available as we go
The ride might be bumpy, but let's just watch how this plays out.
I expect the value of TSLA to double within the next 3 years. We should see TSLA at 1,000 in 2020.
The company is growing at 50 % per year. This seems to be the upper limit for its growth.
The value of the company lags behind that, so let's guess 30 % compounded growth. In 10 years this yields 13.8x (1.3^10).
Of course the growth rate may soften going forward. But I do not see any fundamental reason for this on the horizon
- the market is big enough
- the CEO is ambitious enough
- finding enough money to finance growth is available or becomes available as we go
The ride might be bumpy, but let's just watch how this plays out.
I expect the value of TSLA to double within the next 3 years. We should see TSLA at 1,000 in 2020.
Tiger
Active Member
Whatever you do, don’t put all your eggs in one basket, instead, Diversify Investments, Diversify Risks, even by By Age And Work Experience.
Remember that TSLA is not the best stock out there and that past performance is not indicative of future results. It all (investing) boils down to compounding your returns.
Remember that TSLA is not the best stock out there and that past performance is not indicative of future results. It all (investing) boils down to compounding your returns.
In 10 years 9000+ per share. (1,5T+ market cap).
Mark my words.
I hope this forum will still be there in 10 years
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Btw, 10 years, but I'll say 10-15 years, because in exactly 10 years we might be in the middle of a recession (no idea and don't think so, but still...) , thus prices would be down despite great value of a given company.
Mark my words.
I hope this forum will still be there in 10 years
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Btw, 10 years, but I'll say 10-15 years, because in exactly 10 years we might be in the middle of a recession (no idea and don't think so, but still...) , thus prices would be down despite great value of a given company.
If I really expected TSLA to only double in 10 years, I would sell my shares and put the money in something else!
ValueAnalyst
Closed
In 10 years 9000+ per share. (1,5T+ market cap).
Mark my words.
I hope this forum will still be there in 10 years
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Btw, 10 years, but I'll say 10-15 years, because in exactly 10 years we might be in the middle of a recession (no idea and don't think so, but still...) , thus prices would be down despite great value of a given company.
I second this, but must be discounted back with a higher than normal discount rate due to execution risk of new tech.
ACA Man
Member
berserk_sun
Member
At least will be 10 times like 500B market value. In 20 years, Tesla could be easily a trillion dollar company
I originally invested in TSLA in November 2012 at $31.xx believing it had a good chance of increasing 10X or more within 5-10 years. We initially hit 10X even faster than I hoped for (4.5 years). IMO, all the pieces are now in place for another 10X increase within the next 5-10 years (to $3000+) and potentially much more. While there are always risks, I like the odds of a 10X increase happening within 10 years better now than I did in 2012.
Funny you should ask that. I have a related, but different problem: when is it "ok" to get out and not kick myself about it for the rest of my life? I am a long, so not planning to sell my stock anytime soon, but, you don't keep a stock *forever* just for the sake of having it. At some point you want to monetize your success.
My initial plan was to sell stock form my 2015 long-term account account in early 2021 to pay back my mortgage. That's when i can start taking money out of that without paying taxes. To do that, I would only need the stock to be around 415 - but that would be all my '15 account which is 50% of my TSLA shares right now.
So what is the right time to sell any of those shares? This is what I've been thinking about a lot lately, and this is how it connects to the OP question. If TSLA is double of what it is today in 4 years, is it worth selling 2/3 of my '15 account? Or will it still have enough legs to just keep my stocks for fear of killing the goose that laid the golden egg? And if TSLA doubles again 4 years after that, is that a good time to sell?
So I think, the more relevant question may be, how do we recognize when TSLA starts to plateau and we can't expect any significant gains going forward.
My initial plan was to sell stock form my 2015 long-term account account in early 2021 to pay back my mortgage. That's when i can start taking money out of that without paying taxes. To do that, I would only need the stock to be around 415 - but that would be all my '15 account which is 50% of my TSLA shares right now.
So what is the right time to sell any of those shares? This is what I've been thinking about a lot lately, and this is how it connects to the OP question. If TSLA is double of what it is today in 4 years, is it worth selling 2/3 of my '15 account? Or will it still have enough legs to just keep my stocks for fear of killing the goose that laid the golden egg? And if TSLA doubles again 4 years after that, is that a good time to sell?
So I think, the more relevant question may be, how do we recognize when TSLA starts to plateau and we can't expect any significant gains going forward.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
My stand on this is:
1. it depends on personal situation (as you quoted, for example you need the money otherwise)
2. if you never sell, you will probably some time in the distant future receive dividends
3. that might be a good time to start selling because it also means the company no longer has enough investment opportunities for its capital; I don't think Elon is that kind of a guy: he always has more ideas than cash
For what it's worth my plan is to wait until Tesla is a $300 billion company and then sell 5% per year for 20 years. Some portion of that money will go into other investments. If it isn't at $300 billion by 2025 I'll sell it all. That depends on the reasons, of course, but if Tesla isn't there by then they clearly haven't disrupted as many industries as we thought they would.
I will be looking for when the growth starts dropping, or I need the money.
As long as they are growing at 50% plus, and have a chance at eventual decent profitability, it is an easy decision to stay in.
Maybe when they drop below 25% growth?
I'll be watching for *serious* competitors. Like if BYD or Geely starts shipping 2 million cars a year outside of China.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
berserk_sun
Member
You have to be out of your mind to believe Chinese companies, they have never been "serious" competitors in any tech related industry like ever.
cpa
Active Member
I have no answers. Everyone here is sanguine about the prospects of Tesla's stock price skyrocketing in the future to 10^3 and more. I cannot refute that. I am not an investment wizard by any stretch.
I see substantial differences between Tesla and companies mentioned above like Alphabet, Facebook, and Amazon. On the one hand all these companies are heavy tech companies without question. But Tesla is a manufacturer. Tesla has raw materials, work in process and finished goods inventories for its vehicles, Powerwall, and solar products. Tesla makes its profits by manufacturing. Alphabet and Facebook do not. Amazon carries a finished goods inventory, but is not on the hook for manufacturing to my knowledge.
Yes, there is a significant part of all of Tesla's products that are tech, and they are selling tech. But in the end, they are selling cars, battery storage systems, and solar panels.
When Tesla starts to be profitable consistently and having surplus cash to pay down debt or invest in expansion, will the markets view Tesla more like a manufacturer or a tech company like Alphabet? Or perhaps a hybrid?
My uninformed guess is that Tesla's stock will be valued much higher than traditional automobile manufacturers, but not as consistently as high as the major tech players out there.
And then, if Tesla ever has the cash to pay dividends, yield begins to creep into the equation.
Left unsaid is the future operations of Tesla. Is it possible that one day Tesla will split into two or more companies? Or perhaps Tesla sells off a large segment of its business?
We will have to revisit this topic in 15 years!
I see substantial differences between Tesla and companies mentioned above like Alphabet, Facebook, and Amazon. On the one hand all these companies are heavy tech companies without question. But Tesla is a manufacturer. Tesla has raw materials, work in process and finished goods inventories for its vehicles, Powerwall, and solar products. Tesla makes its profits by manufacturing. Alphabet and Facebook do not. Amazon carries a finished goods inventory, but is not on the hook for manufacturing to my knowledge.
Yes, there is a significant part of all of Tesla's products that are tech, and they are selling tech. But in the end, they are selling cars, battery storage systems, and solar panels.
When Tesla starts to be profitable consistently and having surplus cash to pay down debt or invest in expansion, will the markets view Tesla more like a manufacturer or a tech company like Alphabet? Or perhaps a hybrid?
My uninformed guess is that Tesla's stock will be valued much higher than traditional automobile manufacturers, but not as consistently as high as the major tech players out there.
And then, if Tesla ever has the cash to pay dividends, yield begins to creep into the equation.
Left unsaid is the future operations of Tesla. Is it possible that one day Tesla will split into two or more companies? Or perhaps Tesla sells off a large segment of its business?
We will have to revisit this topic in 15 years!
Is this a joke?
How old are you? Do you remember when they took over the semiconductor industry? The solar industry? Pretty much all of manufacturing? Basically, one by one, they have taken over *every* tech related industry.
Go through your house: nearly everything you own is probably made in China. Yes, the firmware's mostly from China too. An iPhone is definitely a Chinese product, manufactured end-to-end by Foxconn, with branding and design styling by Apple, which is arguably basically a fashion house.
Foxconn alone manufactures 40% of all consumer electronics in the world. It's HQed in Taiwan but has the bulk of its operations in China.
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