How much of a deposit do you think will be required?

[Trev Page]

All I hope is that the down payment is in the local currency as the USD is so high right now. Especially compared to the CAD, which will probably be bottoming out riiiight around the time of the Model 3 unveiling

Model S requires the same deposit amount ($2500) on either the US or Canadian site and is charged in the local currency. Model X is $5000, same deal.

I suspect Model 3 will be the same way. Keep in mind it's a pre-order, not a sale deposit. Model S when introduced was $40K for a Signature and $5K for general production, same thing happened for Model X.

If Tesla is a creature of habit, and they appear to be, Model 3 should come in perhaps half of those amounts when pre-orders begin. When production ramps up and the backlog is cleared sales downpayments should also drop.

 

[gigglehertz]

I was looking at CPO cars in the Seattle area, and they wanted $1000 down on a ~ $50,000 car. I believe the reserve amount for M3 will be $1000.

 

[ImEric]

I was looking at CPO cars in the Seattle area, and they wanted $1000 down on a ~ $50,000 car. I believe the reserve amount for M3 will be $1000.

Nah, they also ask $1000.00 for a $95,000.00 pre-owned car. Still, I think it would be great (and maybe really smart) if they only asked $1000 to $1500 for the deposit amount. I would love to put down a deposit, but I won't do it at $5000. Not with a two year wait ahead of me. I'll put down two deposits at $1500.00 each, though. I could see them getting 35-50k preorders at $5000.00 each, or as many as 250,000 pre-orders by the fall 2017 launch if the deposit is only $1000.00.

The less you can afford to spend on a car, the less you can afford to spend without getting your car for two years... ImJusSayn.

 

[Lonnie123]

I've come around on this issue a bit, I think it will be $1,000

The competition is heating up, and they will want to "lock" as many people into their car as possible. How many people are going to be on the fence between a Bolt/Volt/Leaf 2.0/Model 3/whatever else? If they can get people to put some cash down, get a nice early reservation number... Those people are less likely to look too seriously at other options. A $2,500 depost reduces the number of people who will be willing to do it, and a $5,000 one does so significantly.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think there will be a signature. This money is too good to pass up for Tesla. Let's say 10k Sigs at 15k USD per sig, that's 150 million USD that can be used for design work, tooling and supercharger buildout. If there are no signature reservations, and the production reservation costs 1.5k USD, that's only 15 million USD.

The Sigs won't necessarily be fully loaded. Tesla could just say that a signature reservation guarantees early delivery, and special colours, etc, and that the lowest config Sig will start at 35k USD. *Very few* Sigs would be configured to cost 35k USD, but it would allow Tesla to use that figure in the marketing.

 

[ImEric]

Before launch, there were over 20,000 Model X reservations for an $80k+ car, and a $5k+ reservation, plus minimum 1 year wait for a still somewhat obscure car company.

By the time Model 3 (and if rumors are correct, the concurrent Model Y) Launch date, I hardly doubt that there will only be 10,000 reservations. More people will be able to afford this car, more people can part with $1500.00 than can part with $5000.00 for two years without getting the car. And perhaps most importantly, Tesla and it's cars gaining popularity every single day. Add to that the FTC (which as an agency, believe that consumers should be able to purchase however they choose to do so), is currently hearing arguments that might end with federal regulation of protectionist state laws like Michigan's. You can believe that the number of reservations will be at least 10 fold by the time the car (or cars) are released.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I agree. If you were referring to my use of 10k in my calculations, I was talking about signature reservations, which will be limited to some number by Tesla, maybe 10k. The general production reservations will be unlimited.

Assuming 200k reservations total before launch, and 15k USD for a Sig reservation and 1.5k USD for a general production resservation, having Sigs means Tesla will recieve:

10k Sigs x 15k USD/Sig + 190k Production x 1.5k USD/Production = 435 million USD

And only having regular production reservations means Tesla will recieve:

200k Production x 1.5k USD/Production = 300 million USD

An additional 135 million USD is important. It can for instance buy something like 1350 supercharger stations, while today there are 593 globally. (I'm assuming the number of reservation holders will be the same, regardless of whether you have Sigs or not. I think this is accurate, as the number of people interested is likely to be the same regardless of whether you have Sigs - some reservations holders will merely be willing to go the extra mile to get their cars sooner.)

 

[EVNow]

An additional 135 million USD is important. It can for instance buy something like 1350 supercharger stations, while today there are 593 globally. (I'm assuming the number of reservation holders will be the same, regardless of whether you have Sigs or not. I think this is accurate, as the number of people interested is likely to be the same regardless of whether you have Sigs - some reservations holders will merely be willing to go the extra mile to get their cars sooner.)

That additional $135k is nice - but it cements the view that Tesla is for elites and that they will significantly delay the release of $35k model - preferring to sell loaded $70k models the first few months (or years). That will also give talking points to Chevy & Nissan to lure people away from Tesla (saying they will eventually cancel $35k model like they did with S).

Can imagine Apple saying they will only sell the 128GB iPhones first ?

Tesla has two options - democratize or stay elitist.

 

[Lonnie123]

That additional $135k is nice - but it cements the view that Tesla is for elites and that they will significantly delay the release of $35k model - preferring to sell loaded $70k models the first few months (or years). That will also give talking points to Chevy & Nissan to lure people away from Tesla (saying they will eventually cancel $35k model like they did with S).

Can imagine Apple saying they will only sell the 128GB iPhones first ?

Tesla has two options - democratize or stay elitist.

Flash forward 30 years to a world where Electric cars are the new standard and Tesla was the one that started it... Do you think it will make a lick of difference if Tesla gets its $35k model off the production line in January or June of the calendar year?

There will always be head line writers casting FUD onto any situation... As far as I can tell this week Apple is completely doomed because their sales only grew 2%

The people who actually care about Tesla headlines at this point in time are Tesla fans, and we arent going to care if the WSJ says "omg Tesla for the elites only!" An extra $135 Million could actually be quite useful for Tesla in terms of ramp up and getting those cars out faster... And if that is the case I say let them skip ahead in line a few weeks

 

[Yggdrasill]

That additional $135k is nice - but it cements the view that Tesla is for elites and that they will significantly delay the release of $35k model - preferring to sell loaded $70k models the first few months (or years). That will also give talking points to Chevy & Nissan to lure people away from Tesla (saying they will eventually cancel $35k model like they did with S).

Can imagine Apple saying they will only sell the 128GB iPhones first ?

Tesla has two options - democratize or stay elitist.

Like I said earlier, Tesla doesn't have to require that the Signatures must be fully loaded. They could allow people to configure the Signatures any way they want, thus preserving the 35k USD starting price, while at the same time collecting the 15k USD. Of course, initially everything off the line will be higher spec cars, so if you configure a 35k USD Sig, you probably wouldn't recieve it the first few months. But you would receive it before anyone else receives a 35k USD Model 3, and some people are likely willing to prepay the higher reservation amount to do that.

 

[Rebel44]

IMO, it will be around $2K

 

[DavidM]

I believe the Model 3 deposit will be $1,500. If Tesla wants to create an even bigger frenzy, they'll only require a $1,000 deposit. In that case, they may take in 250,000 deposits before the first car ships. Either way, there will be historic demand for the Model 3. The major automakers will be really confused, and then scared.

 

[Model 3]

I believe the Model 3 deposit will be $2,500, half of what it was for Model S, but it maybe smarter of them to lower it a bit more...
But I don't really care - I have that money on the savings account for the TM3 anyway, and don't get an interest on that money that make any differences...


... well, ok, if Tesla goes bankrupt I may care...

 

[aronth5]

$2k max and won't be surprised if it is $1k to $1,500.

 

[EVNow]

The people who actually care about Tesla headlines at this point in time are Tesla fans, and we arent going to care if the WSJ says "omg Tesla for the elites only!" An extra $135 Million could actually be quite useful for Tesla in terms of ramp up and getting those cars out faster... And if that is the case I say let them skip ahead in line a few weeks

Tesla is a media created story - so I'm sure Musk cares about headlines (whether you do or not). The headlines are important to investors onboard - and get their money - which is quite important to make 3 a reality.

- - - Updated - - -

... while at the same time collecting the 15k USD.

$15k is definitely not democratizing EV ownership.

I understand a lot of Tesla owners are attracted to Tesla because of Premium branding - and would be disappointed if it goes mainstream.

 

[Yggdrasill]

$15k is definitely not democratizing EV ownership.

I understand a lot of Tesla owners are attracted to Tesla because of Premium branding - and would be disappointed if it goes mainstream.

If the final price will 35k USD, it doesn't make much difference whether you require a 15k USD deposit or a 2k USD deposit. Even assuming you borrow the additional 13k USD at 5% interest, that's only about 1.3k USD before you're likely to take delivery. 1.3k USD isn't extremely much for a spot at the front of the line.

 

[Lonnie123]

If the final price will 35k USD, it doesn't make much difference whether you require a 15k USD deposit or a 2k USD deposit. Even assuming you borrow the additional 13k USD at 5% interest, that's only about 1.3k USD before you're likely to take delivery. 1.3k USD isn't extremely much for a spot at the front of the line.

Except not everyone has 15k sitting around, much less that they can tie up for 2-3 years. This might be the mark for Sig production however. I dont think many people are going to take out an interest accruing loan just to get a spot in line.

More people have 2.5k but that still is a fair amount of money to tie up for many people. 1k I think will hit the sweet spot for the production model queue. Gets people in line and committed to getting a model 3 (versus a competitor car), counts as a down payment, and is an amount most people buying a $35-40k car can afford to do without for a few years

 

[Red Sage]

I believe that a general Model S Reservation cost was at $5,000 originally, but dropped to $2,500 once Production seemed to be humming along, right around Q1 2014, if I remember correctly.

It turns out that $2,500-to-$3,000 seems to be the going rate for a Lease down payment in the market segment.

So, it would make sense for a Model ≡ reservation to follow suit.

 

[Trev Page]

I wouldn't commit my whole kitty to a reservation but I could go as far as $5k for a Signature. Any more and I'd have to consider just a production reservation.

 

[JuJoo]

I believe that a general Model S Reservation cost was at $5,000 originally, but dropped to $2,500 once Production seemed to be humming along, right around Q1 2014, if I remember correctly.

It turns out that $2,500-to-$3,000 seems to be the going rate for a Lease down payment in the market segment.

So, it would make sense for a Model ≡ reservation to follow suit.

That will be likely. If anything, if they were going to cut the reservation costs, they would probably do $2,500 initial deposit, then ~$1,500 deposit after production ramp.