Hypothesis - Tesla only builds AWD Model 3 starting in July

[voip-ninja]

I have a hypothesis that Tesla will switch production 100% to DM cars starting in July until all AWD back-log is exhausted.

My rationale for this is that Tesla will make higher profit margins on Dual Motor and P cars. It also means no line split, no switchover to run RWD cars on one shift and then DM cars on another shift that same week.

Of course, I could be dead wrong on all of this, wouldn't be the first time!

 

[Chris350]

I think there would be quite a few rez holders that would be somewhat upset if they followed that path....

 

[dhrivnak]

It should be quite easy to build both on the same line. Virtually every other car maker can do so.

 

[Snow Drift]

I agree with the OP. The higher selling price will make the market happy as well.

More importantly, most entry-level luxury buyers want AWD. I can see RWD being phased out quickly, just like on the S. Maybe only offered on base model SR.

 

[ewoodrick]

I think that what we'll see are some DM days, or maybe a week to get through each color. There's still a lot of Day 1 folks to build cars for.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I don't see what they wouldn't. Why not serve the people who have had their invites the longest first? Also as you said it maximizes profit (minimizes losses? )

 

[McRat]

Especially if there are financial issues, it would make sense to switch over to AWD and P models to generate revenue. Once the orders are filled, then step it back until they finally reach the Model 3SR base. I don't believe they can sell a Model 3SR at a profit yet.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Hopefully they will also make cars for the people who deferred for white interiors too though (That were supposed to be available Fall 2017!).

 

[jimmyjohn]

Agree with OP.

Demand is off the charts.
Simplicity.
Higher GM rates,
Safer.
One Tesla - All D.
Precedence with S and X,
The yeahs will overwhelm the whiners.

 

[Zythryn]

I could see Tesla doing batches of AWD, but not 100% until AWD backlog is done. A full month at worst, more likely only a week.
There are still a lot of unfilled orders for the RWD.

 

[voip-ninja]

Agree with OP.

Demand is off the charts.
Simplicity.
Higher GM rates,
Safer.
One Tesla - All D.
Precedence with S and X,
The yeahs will overwhelm the whiners.

I think they continue to offer RWD this year but I could see RWD being offered on SR only next year.

The argument for a long burst of only AWD is profit margin.

 

[TT97]

Agree with OP.

Demand is off the charts.
Simplicity.
Higher GM rates,
Safer.
One Tesla - All D.
Precedence with S and X,
The yeahs will overwhelm the whiners.

Which ones are the whiners? The ones that keep going on about Dual Motors?

If they do go D only, I'm glad I ordered mine already. I've owned both (other makes) and have always preferred the way RWD drove though the twisties.

So, if Tesla decides to go single D line to avoid line switchovers - wouldn't that mean no P version either?

 

[thelastdeadmouse]

I think that they'll make as many dual motor models as they can until the backlog catches up, but for them to do nothing but DM you're assuming that they'll have the capacity to do so. Its taking quite a while to scale production up to 5,000 units a week, we have no reason to assume they'll be able to produce 5,000 cars worth of front drive units, front CV joints, front axles, ect from the word go. It would be foolish not to produce RWD cars also if the main line has more production capacity than they have parts available for DM.

 

[TerrapinThief]

I think it also depends on what motor availability is like. Using the same for front and back, you could build twice as many cars RWD vs AWD if you are motor constrained.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I could see Tesla doing batches of AWD, but not 100% until AWD backlog is done. A full month at worst, more likely only a week.
There are still a lot of unfilled orders for the RWD.

Obviously they're not going to make people that have already ordered wait for all the AWD orders.

 

[sitter_k]

I doubt it, but I hope so since I'm Waiting for awd! F RWD!

 

[vinnie97]

That's mature.

 

[drawfour]

No way. They might do it in batches - one week AWD, next week RWD, next week P, or perhaps AWD will just be a software limited P, so it's the same hardware. But I don't see them making exclusively Dual Motor configurations. They could go as far as something like 2 weeks AWD, 1 week RWD, so that they work through the AWD backlog quickly - since a lot of early invites have deferred. But I just don't see them switching over entirely. Elon would have mentioned that, IMO. He only said that they wouldn't add AWD until they reach 5k/wk capacity. I just don't see them not still outputting a lot of RWD.

 

[Mark Z]

I don't mind waiting until 2019 for a $35,000 Model 3. However, I would have to purchase two cars instead of one.

Since I can get a new CAV sticker in 2019 for my existing 2017 Model S, it would be best for me to wait until early 2022 to purchase a new Tesla so another CAV decal will allow use to September 30, 2025. It's all explained at this web page:

California’s Clean Air Decals | California Air Resources Board

 

[Daniel in SD]

I don't mind waiting until 2019 for a $35,000 Model 3. However, I would have to purchase two cars instead of one.

Since I can get a new CAV sticker in 2019 for my existing 2017 Model S, it would be best for me to wait until early 2022 to purchase a new Tesla so another CAV decal will allow use to September 30, 2025. It's all explained at this web page:

California’s Clean Air Decals | California Air Resources Board

My guess is that by then there will so many EVs in California they will discontinue the program or the stickers will be useless anyway.