Iamthecaliflower

[VolkerP]

Honest attempt to answer OP question.

This weekend's discussions on TMC added to an emotion that Tesla will deliver a sub-par product. With the focus on engineering, many design decisions were/are made that impact creature comfort / amenities. While Model S is the best EV to enter the market, one poster stated that this excuses only so much and I can fully agree with that.
Another issue is the delayed ramp-up which shifts delivery of 4500 cars in Q4. Some concerns were raised how Tesla can handle a 9X scale up of delivery activities, hire & train the required number of specialists and manage the logistics.

So with some clouds on the horizon, some investors decided not to wait if they clear up or darken all the sky. They got out ASAP. Due to low volume, and lack of buyers, the stock fell by 7%.

Well now I am an armchair analyst. Take it as it is. And I post in this thread because I think it's a better fit here than in the investor thread.

 

[Eberhard]

You can compare Tesla with other carmakers only. Tesla is worth 1/10 of GM. But how many car does GM make every year? and (most important) whats their profit per car?
With raising production numbers, the profit per car will drop. The Gen III will generate less profit then a premium car like Model S or a Roadster! (but production volume will be higher)

Tesla's share are fair priced, regarding the risk and chances it offers. Don't forget IPO price was much less 2 years ago.

 

[Norbert]

You can compare Tesla with other carmakers only. Tesla is worth 1/10 of GM. But how many car does GM make every year? and (most important) whats their profit per car?
With raising production numbers, the profit per car will drop. The Gen III will generate less profit then a premium car like Model S or a Roadster! (but production volume will be higher)

Every stock has its own story. GM investors may be afraid of the government selling its shares at some point, or this or that. If you look at the development of GM's stock price over the last 2 years ($35 -> $20), some may be afraid it will just continue that way no matter how many cars they sell.

 

[Doug_G]

This discussion seems to have wandered on-topic???

 

[Teslawisher]

I am hoping someone has some educated insight into this. I'm not looking for the result of a survey, simply an educated explanation by someone that can honestly say their views are based on more then hope. I have read a handful of such comments from people on this forum before. These people know who they are, and I hope they will respond.

I have been reading these rants for quite some time and kept my mouth shut. But, I guess I now just have to say... If you have been given the same kind of answer over and over (that you obviously don't like much), why keep posting the questions. And if you have seen individuals who have provided insight more to your liking, why don't you focus just on their posts and ignore the others you don't like. Or, private message those individuals for your "answers".

 

[dsm363]

Or try an investor's forum or pay a financial advisor you trust for advice instead of looking for free advice on the web from people you dislike and make you angry?

 

[ggr]

Here's my take. Last week some people noticed that expected early deliveries weren't happening. People sold stock, either because they became less confident in the stock they were holding or they sold short because they became more confident that the stock would fall. Or, like me, they have confidence in the company but were sure that the price would drop because of the above factors. Then when the earnings confirmed that early deliveries were a bit delayed it dropped some more. But the earnings report was actually somewhat positive, and late in the week the price picked up. I bought back what I'd sold, at pretty close to last week's bottom. This week, there've been a number of people talking about having second thoughts, or cancelling, and some press reflecting this, with no particularly corresponding good news. So it went down some more. I wish I'd predicted this drop, but I didn't. Oh, well.

Emotion is your enemy in the stock market. Cool down, or get out. This is not the first time I or others have suggested this. Now you can hate me too, if you want, but that's an honest attempt to explain what I think is going on, and what you should do about it.

 

[zack]

Cali, take a look here:

Tesla Motors Inc: NASDAQ:TSLA quotes & news - Google Finance

There's a series of flags at the bottom of the main graph where you can click to links on the right highlighting things that might have influenced the stock price (but often didn't). If you look at the general progress of the stock's price as evidenced by the smooth green 200 day moving average line on the right, it seems apparent that the average stock price is rising despite all of the roller-coaster moves. I went through all of the hair-pulling you're going through now a couple of months ago and finally got out at a break-even point because I decided I don't have the constitution for it. I still study it, and imagine what I could have made riding the ups and downs and guessing the right moment to buy or sell, because if you're terribly connected to the day-to-day price you're living life like a day trader anyway.

So my suggestion, like many others (and I have taken my own advice) is... next time it gets to a price that you can live with (and it will), simply sell. And don't kick yourself if it continues to rise, on average, because over time, there is no reason why it won't. Tesla Motors has cash and machinery and space and they're making cars that are pre-sold, plus they're being extra-specially careful, which is why they've slowed production.

On the way to the mountains you encounter a series of foothills, and those foothills have valleys between. Elon has placed his company firmly on a course to the mountains and he's headed straight there, terrain be damned. You're suffering from motion sickness. The question is not why does it do this? but instead knowing it does this, can I deal with it? I couldn't. I got out, and next time I feel like it, I'll probably put buy about 20% of what I owned in the first place, and put the rest of my money into projects that actually need my personal attention, which I can assure you I could not provide while I was obsessing over what was happening with tsla all day a couple of months ago.