I was curious so I read the "Happiness Guarantee" for leases, since I briefly thought about switching to 1.49% Alliant Purchase (keep a new one in August) instead of 4% Lease money factor (definitely replace it in 3 years with another one buy instead of lease it will be more mature then). The idea was to also make some other config changes, e.g. black leather. Then I read the fine print, including "you or anyone in your household cannot acquire another Tesla for 6 months" (unless it's more expensive and I'm already maxed except for Ludi which I don't want).
So that was the end of that exercise!!
Anyway, this is what the Happiness Lease Return scenario in California would have been for me:
02/10/2012 P83 Reservation $5,000.00
03/22/2016 Factory pick-up payment $2,229.03
$2,024.49 ($1,848.85 base rent + $175.64 9.5% sales tax Fremont)
$2,024.49 month #2
$2,024.49 month #3
Total Payments $13,302.50
Excess mileage $187.50 @ $0.25/mi
Total Cost $13,490
Obviously the above is not worth it because you are also out the $7,229.03 -- unless one is *really* unhappy!! I knew based on the S that even a P83 reservation might have some issues after the Sigs, but I didn't care because Factory service is only about 5 miles from my home.