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Inventory Discussion

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A ship filled with cars is “inventory”. Cars on a train to the final delivery point is “inventory”. Cars in a service center being cleaned and prepped for delivery “inventory”.

The more cars you produce, the more are in each of these steps of the process. The more delivery locations you have, the more logistics and en-route vehicles you have. Tesla does not have a separate “in transit” category. It is all “inventory” and there is a direct relationship between production and the number of vehicles you have in transit.

It’s not semantics. There is $150 difference in payments. This will disqualify many buyers. The delay between purchase and refund is also significant (1/6th of ownership of the vehicle). If you think it’s semantics, how about you lend me $7,500 I can use as a down payment until next tax season interest free?


Price increase happened in June…. For the next 6 months Tesla was still servicing deliveries from orders prior to the increase. Come December **when June orders were finally being serviced** deliveries crashed hard. Very clear evidence consumers had no appetite for $66k Model Ys.

Put another way, the backlog stopped growing—deliveries were happening faster than orders—when prices got over $65k. It took 6 months for the backlog from prior orders to empty.
 
Gary Black seems confused. People buy performance models for...... performance. 3P has better performance than YP. It does not need a huge discount to compete. I do expect a 3 LR at some point. Maybe even RWD with ~375 mile EPA rating.
Moreover people want to buy performance "cars" are different from those who buy "performance" SUVs.

Y doesn't look anywhere as good as 3.
 
Just curious, but is all this data just wrong? Or skewed by X inventory, or bias?
Tesla typically used to put cars on inventory that were not bought by order holders. Not sure what they exactly do now ... because they now manufacture mix of trims according to orders. But by the time they deliver, the order mix might be different (because of cancellations, not taking delivery etc). So, where there are more cars of a particular trim than orders in a particular geographic location, they put it on inventory to sell quickly (and cheaply).

I guess the inventory numbers may approximately tell us how many of the not yet sold cars Tesla has. But I don't think it has much validity in tracking absolute numbers. But relative numbers might give an indication of how fast these cars are getting snapped up ... afterall in periods of high known demand (like during pandemic) the shown inventory was very low. But week by week or day to day tracking is probably totally useless and just noise.
 
So now that we have a dedicated thread to discuss inventory … do you guys think that the days of order backlog are soon to be over and everyone will mostly be buying cars off the lot except for certain configurations, just like they would for non-Tesla vehicles? Is there concern that the delivery centers are not large enough to hold the growing inventory?
 
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So now that we have a dedicated thread to discuss inventory … do you guys think that the days of order backlog are soon to be over and everyone will mostly be buying cars off the lot except for certain configurations, just like they would for non-Tesla vehicles? Is there concern that the delivery centers are not large enough to hold the growing inventory?
I noticed deliveries are being pushed up, i think a round of price cuts is imminent
 
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So now that we have a dedicated thread to discuss inventory … do you guys think that the days of order backlog are soon to be over and everyone will mostly be buying cars off the lot except for certain configurations, just like they would for non-Tesla vehicles? Is there concern that the delivery centers are not large enough to hold the growing inventory?
Tesla has always used overflow lots. The small store near me used to have one across the freeway, but they recently moved it.

Massive lots holding 2 months of inventory is mostly a US thing. European dealers carry minimal inventory, with most customers placing custom orders and waiting a couple months for delivery. The US model smooths things out on the manufacturing side, but it's inefficient overall. Especially when interest rates are non-zero. With online ordering and modern flexible production lines (not Tesla's) there's less need to have massive inventory as a buffer between manufacturing and end users.

I don't see Tesla building massive inventory. They use pricing to control it in the short term and factory output to control it over time. That's why they slow-rolled the Berlin plant, curtailed Shanghai production (and tabled the next expansion phase), no longer make 25k S/X per quarter, etc.
 
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I don't see Tesla building massive inventory. They use pricing to control it in the short term and factory output to control it over time. That's why they slow-rolled the Berlin plant, curtailed Shanghai production (and tabled the next expansion phase), no longer make 25k S/X per quarter, etc.
If you write this in the main market thread, you will get a dozen angry replies and 50+ down votes ;)
 
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Tesla is discounting inventory units by $250 apiece to offset the latest price increases. Both Model 3 and Model Y have this discount, in a couple of markets I’ve checked. Let’s see if Tesla continues to cut inventory prices - if they do, we’ll know Tesla really doesn’t want to grow inventory.
 
Inventory in Southern California is building up. 12 Model Y Long Range configurations with induction wheels are available in Greater LA. A week ago there was no configuration available for the Model Y Long Range.

Obviously the $250 inventory discount is still there.
 
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This is interesting. I've noticed that the Model Y LR inventory in Greater LA has grown over time but the Model Y AWD has been cleared, based on the number of configurations available.

Perhaps Tesla has already run out of the 4680 packs to put in the cheapest Model Ys in the US?

Meanwhile, inventory for Model 3 is quite concerning.
 
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With the recent price increase on new orders, inventory Model 3 units are being discounted by $500. Pretty much all configurations are available in inventory.

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Meanwhile, Model Y inventory units are being discounted by only $250.

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There are only 4 Model Y configurations available at this moment in Greater LA. Looks like Model Y inventory is clearing fast, in contrast to the bleak picture on the Model 3.
 
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Looks like Model Y Long Range inventory is all cleared, and the Model Y AWD has taken over. There are currently 6 AWD configurations in inventory in Greater LA, at a $250 discount. It sounds to me like Tesla is deliberately building up inventory since these configurations seem to come in batches, and the good news is that Tesla is clearing Model Y inventory pretty fast. The bad news is of course that Model 3 inventory is moving very slowly despite a $500 discount compared to order price.
 
Not as many Model 3 RWD configurations are available now as a couple of weeks ago. Some of the configurations are duplicates:

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So either inventory units are selling, or Tesla is no longer producing these models. There's also the possibility that Tesla is simply moving inventory around, but given that the inventory discounts are applied everywhere, I doubt this is the case.

Model Y inventory is stable. 9 configurations across multiple locations.

No inventory discounts on Model S or Model X, except for demo units. Tesla is not in a hurry to clear their most expensive models.