Inventory Discussion

[Hiline]

I’m still trying to wrap my head around the fact that the delivery-production gap narrowed last quarter when inventory on display clearly ballooned. Is this because:
1. This inventory growth was specific to the US? Are other markets not growing inventory?
2. A huge number of vehicles were in transit at the end of March and finally hit delivery center inventory in early April, and for the rest of the quarter Tesla sold all cars it produced, with few units in transit at the end of June? I did see an alarming amount of Model 3 SR inventory just before the April 18th IRA credit reduction.
3. Something else I couldn’t think of?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Total inventory grew by 13.5k in Q2, to 108k+. We don't have China numbers yet (looks flattish) and we'll never have US, Europe or ROW numbers so we can't know the split. Nor will we ever know the split between "in transit" to fill existing orders and true unsold inventory.

The bigger issue is what inventory Tesla chooses to display. In the past they hid most/all inventory. A "custom order" would come along sooner or later and get matched to any unsold cars (perhaps after a wheel swap or s/w tweak). At EOQ they'd reach out directly to people with orders that couldn't be filled by the stroke of midnight and offer the chance to switch to a slightly different configuration.

Lately they've been showing more inventory, and experimenting with discounts to get people to pull the trigger. That's much more labor-efficient than all the manual calling and wheel swapping and such. It also brings in a new group of buyers who can't or won't wait 2-6 weeks (or more) for a car.

 

[Hiline]

The Model 3 RWD is now discounted by $4k. Wonder if this is the bottom price for a new Tesla.

On the other hand, there is no longer a discount on an inventory Model Y!

 

[tesluv108]

The Model 3 RWD is now discounted by $4k. Wonder if this is the bottom price for a new Tesla.



View attachment 954263

On the other hand, there is no longer a discount on an inventory Model Y!

This must have been a quick test because I’m not seeing it today in Ohio. They actually raised the prices up to 39k for a silver 3

 

[Doggydogworld]

They show me 66 Model 3s and 39 Ys in south TX. Most I've ever seen, but I don't check often. About 40% of the 3s are discounted by ~2k, in the past I've seen as much as 2.7k. I only saw a few $500 Y discounts.

 

[Hiline]

In just a couple of days, the cost of an inventory Model 3 went up by almost $3k. There's still plenty of inventory left.

 

[Buckminster]

For anyone concerned about "building inventory":

Vehicles in-transit, test-drive and display vehicles account for a substantive majority of our total days of supply.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1683629040123641856

 

[Doggydogworld]

In just a couple of days, the cost of an inventory Model 3 went up by almost $3k.

They've dropped back somewhat. It's more of a mix now, with some 3k+ discounts on 3s but some barely discounted at all. Many Ys are still at list price, but some discounts in the 500-1500 range which is a bit higher than before.

 

[Hiline]

Inventory prices are increasingly divorced from custom-order prices. Furthermore, it seems like we're starting to see some resemblance to per-unit pricing rather than per-configuration pricing, as two identical cars are listed at two different prices.

 

[Hiline]

The cheapest Model 3s are now priced at $37k.

After federal rebate and before taxes and fees, a Model 3 is now under $30k!

 

[navguy12]

The cheapest Model 3s are now priced at $37k.

View attachment 961201

After federal rebate and before taxes and fees, a Model 3 is now under $30k!

Wasn’t the TM3 supposed to something like $36k when it was unveiled back in spring of 2016?

I’m sure with inflation, the 2016 $36k must be greater than $42k in todays dollars.

 

[Hiline]

Wow it's like inventory evaporated overnight. The Model 3 RWD is basically gone. Last night when I checked there were some Model 3 units listed at $40k. At this moment, there's one demo vehicle and that's it.

 

[tivoboy]

Wow it's like inventory evaporated overnight. The Model 3 RWD is basically gone. Last night when I checked there were some Model 3 units listed at $40k. At this moment, there's one demo vehicle and that's it.

View attachment 963570

Maybe they are going to sell them all to HERTZ since Highland will be here soon enough? And the HERTZ pricing is probably already contractually locked in? Just a thought.

 

[Hiline]

Maybe they are going to sell them all to HERTZ since Highland will be here soon enough? And the HERTZ pricing is probably already contractually locked in? Just a thought.

Does Hertz buy only the RWD version? The AWD version has plenty of inventory.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689714070289612800

 

[Hiline]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689714070289612800

Used inventory is a bit different, because it depends on how many cars Tesla decides to sell vs auction off to dealerships. New inventory would be a much stronger indicator of demand. The US used inventory has plenty of units across all configurations.

 

[tesluv108]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689714070289612800

Lol they do. Especially in the USA

 

[tesluv108]

More price cuts coming in the USA. Highland can’t get here soon enough.

 

[tivoboy]

More price cuts coming in the USA. Highland can’t get here soon enough.
View attachment 964766

Sadly, It would appear that the Chinese learned that the best way to market share is a price reduction and ensuing price war. Ok they’ve done this for centuries, so it’s nothing new. The CCP purse is bigger than anything Tesla has.