Hi. The tax credits situation is explained
here on the fueleconomy.gov website. Scroll down and expand the "Phaseout" section. If Tesla hits 200K in Q1 2018, the deadlines will be as follows:
If Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries in Q1 2018:
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
Notice that the deadlines don't change whether Tesla hits 200K on January 1st, 2018 or March 31st, 2018. We don't need to know the exact date they will hit 200K USA sales. We just need to know the quarter. As of today, I'm calculating 113,568 units delivered in the USA and I would expect Tesla to hit 200K on Jan 11th, 2018. For more details, click
here and scroll to the right. Of course, there is a chance they might hit 200K in Q4 2017. In that case, the deadlines would look like this:
If Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries in Q4 2017:
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
Hi,
@azred. I'm the author of that tool. I'm more confident about the accuracy of the tax credits deadlines it shows than the accuracy of the estimated delivery dates. It is hard to estimate when somebody might get their Model 3 but it is easier to estimate how much tax credits they might receive as long as you can guess the 200K date within a quarter and the delivery date within a 6 month period. For example, if Tesla hits 200K USA deliveries on any day in Q1 2018 and the delivery date is between 1 Jan 2019 and 30 Jun 2019, tax credits will be $1,875 USD. If delivery is between 1 Jul 2018 and 31 Dec 2018, then $3,750 USD and for deliveries until 30 Jun 2018, it's $7500.