With the recent news of Tesla and/or Mobileye dumping each other for future products (an interesting he said/she said in its own right) I got to thinking about the Auto-Pilot upgrades in Model X once more. Some of you may remember me charting the Model X/S mules for clues on new cameras, radars etc. back in 2015.
Of course we know an Auto-Pilot hardware upgrade is in the works. The best clue is the competition which has been placing far more hardware into their cars for years already. A high-end Audi or a Mercedes Benz has far more hardware situational awarence than any production Tesla to date, with multiple cameras, multiple radards back and front complementing the ultrasonics. Tesla only has one camera, one radar plus the ultrasonics. Yet, for whatever reasons (like the DrivePilot fiasco points out) Tesla is actually bringing all this together better, but still, there are limits to what the current hardware can do (for example, a Tesla can not detect cars approaching from the back until very close). We also know Audi is coming out with Level 3 autonomous driving in 2017.
The second clue has been the various mules we've seen. We have seen both surround cameras as well as Tesla's (includind Model X mules) with what look like rear-bumper radars similar to what the Germans have. We have even seen Lidar setups on Model X as well as very advanced looking computing gear in a Model S mule suggesting advanced autonomous driving testing - much of this already in 2015. Tesla also showed initial Model X press shots with dual front cameras in the windshield as well as what looked like a high-up rear camera between the falcon wing doors, possibly related to a Gentex camera rear-view mirror and/or future autonomous driving updates.
Mobileye also hinted at a trifocal camera coming to Tesla within a year. And of course, also back in 2015, Elon Musk also had this to say:
Then, of course, Model X launched with the same AP 1.0 as Model S, but with a windshield camera housing for two cameras, suggesting something more was or at least had been in the works during the much delayed Model X development process. Next clue came this year, with the Model S facelift launch, when leaked schematics showed triple frontal cameras for Model S. These schematics suggest only three additional cameras over the current AP hardware, not a all-around seeing full suite. Yet, again, the Model S facelift shipped without these cameras. We also possibly hear from inside Tesla that current AP is already considered legacy and that a replacement comes this year.
On the other hand, we have Elon Musk going on record that Tesla Model 3 likely to ship “autonomous ready” with new sensor suite and other quotes from him suggesting that full-autonomous requires more than just frontal cameras. Finally, with the breaking up of the Mobileye partnership, a lot of talk has come out suggesting Tesla wants to be more self-sufficient with their full-autonomous Autopilot, making it clear Mobileye will play no part in that phase of autonomous Teslas.
Putting all this together, it seems plausible to me, the three camera AP upgrade is not the full autonomous suite. It possibly is/was an evolutionary step for the AP 1.0, perhaps an "AP 1.5", that included an upgraded Mobileye system and was/is intended to ship with the Model X and the Model S facelift - if the full-autonomous capable hardware (with Level 3/4 software updates coming out in the future) is the "AP 2.0" Tesla wishes to launch before Model 3 shipping. It is also possible given the talk, that this "AP 1.5" was/is either delayed and/or not fully satisfactory to Tesla and/or AP 2.0 hardare (Tesla's in-house efforts?) is expected to be ready sooner than initially planned.
This begs the question: Will this "AP 1.5" still come out - or has it been cancelled entirely? The permanence in talks between Tesla and Mobileye, and the fact that Tesla has been upping the talk (with Mobileye concurring) on significant software upgrades coming to the current hardware, certainly makes it possible "AP 1.5" has been cancelled and the end of Tesla's and Mobileye's co-operation happening sooner than expected. On the other hand, the wording is vague enough to support the possibility that the "AP 1.5" upgrade might still happen - and Tesla's in-house efforts coming only a bit later (unless Tesla also has some other replacement for "AP 1.5" that is ready sooner).
But certainly, if the "AP 1.5" is really an intermediate step to a full-autonomous "AP 2.0", skipping it might sense if it is delayed too much compared to the launch of the full suite. Very little point in introducing a new hardware suite if it is to be replaced by another in a less than year. If "AP 1.5" is cancelled, it might mean we won't see an upgraded AP suite until sometime next year. If "AP 1.5" is still a go, I would expect to see it in 2016 for new upcoming Model X/S facelift production.
What do you guys think? Anything to this admittedly wild speculation?
Of course we know an Auto-Pilot hardware upgrade is in the works. The best clue is the competition which has been placing far more hardware into their cars for years already. A high-end Audi or a Mercedes Benz has far more hardware situational awarence than any production Tesla to date, with multiple cameras, multiple radards back and front complementing the ultrasonics. Tesla only has one camera, one radar plus the ultrasonics. Yet, for whatever reasons (like the DrivePilot fiasco points out) Tesla is actually bringing all this together better, but still, there are limits to what the current hardware can do (for example, a Tesla can not detect cars approaching from the back until very close). We also know Audi is coming out with Level 3 autonomous driving in 2017.
The second clue has been the various mules we've seen. We have seen both surround cameras as well as Tesla's (includind Model X mules) with what look like rear-bumper radars similar to what the Germans have. We have even seen Lidar setups on Model X as well as very advanced looking computing gear in a Model S mule suggesting advanced autonomous driving testing - much of this already in 2015. Tesla also showed initial Model X press shots with dual front cameras in the windshield as well as what looked like a high-up rear camera between the falcon wing doors, possibly related to a Gentex camera rear-view mirror and/or future autonomous driving updates.
Mobileye also hinted at a trifocal camera coming to Tesla within a year. And of course, also back in 2015, Elon Musk also had this to say:
Then, of course, Model X launched with the same AP 1.0 as Model S, but with a windshield camera housing for two cameras, suggesting something more was or at least had been in the works during the much delayed Model X development process. Next clue came this year, with the Model S facelift launch, when leaked schematics showed triple frontal cameras for Model S. These schematics suggest only three additional cameras over the current AP hardware, not a all-around seeing full suite. Yet, again, the Model S facelift shipped without these cameras. We also possibly hear from inside Tesla that current AP is already considered legacy and that a replacement comes this year.
On the other hand, we have Elon Musk going on record that Tesla Model 3 likely to ship “autonomous ready” with new sensor suite and other quotes from him suggesting that full-autonomous requires more than just frontal cameras. Finally, with the breaking up of the Mobileye partnership, a lot of talk has come out suggesting Tesla wants to be more self-sufficient with their full-autonomous Autopilot, making it clear Mobileye will play no part in that phase of autonomous Teslas.
Putting all this together, it seems plausible to me, the three camera AP upgrade is not the full autonomous suite. It possibly is/was an evolutionary step for the AP 1.0, perhaps an "AP 1.5", that included an upgraded Mobileye system and was/is intended to ship with the Model X and the Model S facelift - if the full-autonomous capable hardware (with Level 3/4 software updates coming out in the future) is the "AP 2.0" Tesla wishes to launch before Model 3 shipping. It is also possible given the talk, that this "AP 1.5" was/is either delayed and/or not fully satisfactory to Tesla and/or AP 2.0 hardare (Tesla's in-house efforts?) is expected to be ready sooner than initially planned.
This begs the question: Will this "AP 1.5" still come out - or has it been cancelled entirely? The permanence in talks between Tesla and Mobileye, and the fact that Tesla has been upping the talk (with Mobileye concurring) on significant software upgrades coming to the current hardware, certainly makes it possible "AP 1.5" has been cancelled and the end of Tesla's and Mobileye's co-operation happening sooner than expected. On the other hand, the wording is vague enough to support the possibility that the "AP 1.5" upgrade might still happen - and Tesla's in-house efforts coming only a bit later (unless Tesla also has some other replacement for "AP 1.5" that is ready sooner).
But certainly, if the "AP 1.5" is really an intermediate step to a full-autonomous "AP 2.0", skipping it might sense if it is delayed too much compared to the launch of the full suite. Very little point in introducing a new hardware suite if it is to be replaced by another in a less than year. If "AP 1.5" is cancelled, it might mean we won't see an upgraded AP suite until sometime next year. If "AP 1.5" is still a go, I would expect to see it in 2016 for new upcoming Model X/S facelift production.
What do you guys think? Anything to this admittedly wild speculation?
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