Is now the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y?

[Jman841]

Just to put everything in perspective, My Model Y AWD (Long story, but it's the 4680 structural pack build) is scheduled to be delivered in November. Looking at everything going on at the moment, it seems like this could be the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y for the following reasons:

1. Prices are at all time high and both new and used car demand is weakening very quickly. The idea that Tesla prices only go up is false and most likely will be coming down soon. Used Tesla prices are trending down quickly as we speak.
2. Removal of ultrasonic sensors with a yet to be proven alternative.
3. HW3 is over 3 years old with HW4 likely coming soon. Given that Tesla is betting everything on Camera + AI, HW4 will most likely be a significantly improvement over HW3 over the next 5-10 years if holding the car for a while.
4. Customer Service nightmares seem to become commonplace.
5. Quality control on the Model Y is still hit or miss, I was hopeful that Austin produced model Y's would be much better, but there seems to be a ton of reports of Quality issues out of Austin as well.

For an over $60k car, this seems like it's going to be a major regret at the moment. We do need a second car, but I'm considering something else for now and see what the EV Market is like in a year or so. Just would love other peoples thoughts who own the car and I realize this is going to be a biased audience towards Tesla.

 

[Chomlee]

This is very strange mentality indeed but I think most of us with investments and disposable income are in the same boat. I think I know how you are feeling. Spending 60K in this economy is not an easy decision. Last time I did that was in 2009 and I wished I had just use that money (I paid cash) to buy anything in the market, I would have flip my cash 5x over easily. And here we are again. You seem like a pragmatic guy and the things you are worrying about are probably excuses to talk yourself out of it. They are legit concerns but for Tesla, they will always be there at least for the short term.

I think you have earned this. You need to take a moment and enjoy the fruits of your hard work.

When they introduced the model 3, I had my finger on the reserve button on reveal night but last minute didn’t do it. I then thought of taking the 30k and buying the stock. Unfortunately, I chickened out of that too and only bought a tiny fraction of that. At least the tiny fraction is now as much as the Y is today. would have been nice to be able to retire on such a small investment but oh well.

 

[tesfinn78]

I am thinking of accepting MYP delivery with all those future changes in mind. However, I have 1.2% financing agreed, so what would you do? Guess that low rates aren't coming back for a while.

 

[Jman841]

I am thinking of accepting MYP delivery with all those future changes in mind. However, I have 1.2% financing agreed, so what would you do? Guess that low rates aren't coming back for a while.

Totally up to you. I don't know what price you have your Model Y P locked in at, but I just don't personally think the car is worth $70k. I decided to cancel my Model Y order and go with a Model 3 RWD as I enjoy driving the model 3 more and intentionally don't want it to become the family beater car. I do think the Model 3 RWD is worth $47k compared to the competition as I like it more than it's current rivals (Polestar 2 or the Ioniq 6).

But, it's totally up to you.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Totally up to you. I don't know what price you have your Model Y P locked in at, but I just don't personally think the car is worth $70k. I decided to cancel my Model Y order and go with a Model 3 RWD as I enjoy driving the model 3 more and intentionally don't want it to become the family beater car. I do think the Model 3 RWD is worth $47k compared to the competition as I like it more than it's current rivals (Polestar 2 or the Ioniq 6).

But, it's totally up to you.

I am with you, I really do not think it is worth $70K for me, now that my delivery is next month, I will try to push out and let Tesla cancel on me. I will not cancel and will wait and can wait..

 

[Tonedog77]

people are still not realizing the markups on other EVs are insane and will be for years, Tesla is also not gonna lower prices any time soon. rates are gonna go up, just take the car, 70k is the new 45k

 

[ElectricIAC]

people are still not realizing the markups on other EVs are insane and will be for years, Tesla is also not gonna lower prices any time soon. rates are gonna go up, just take the car, 70k is the new 45k

Tide is turning, I’m already discounting i4 and iX and while they’re not exactly stunners they definitely underpromise and over deliver.

 

[starship42]

I then thought of taking the 30k and buying the stock. Unfortunately, I chickened out of that too and only bought a tiny fraction of that. At least the tiny fraction is now as much as the Y is today. would have been nice to be able to retire on such a small investment but oh well.

Looking back, I had the means to invest a 2017-M3 worth of money in $TSLA at the time, but doubt I would have had the foresight or fortitude to hold that amount of stock to today.

If I had put that into my Roth IRA [at each of our annual contri limits back then]? Then yeah it would have been more locked in without an easy means of liquidation, but my wife and I are happy where we are today regardless. 2020 M3SR+ sold yesterday, 2023 MYLR coming next week, we have each other, life is good.

 

[Hamtaro7]

I would gladly have waited had i known the improved suspension was coming

 

[Tonedog77]

Tide is turning, I’m already discounting i4 and iX and while they’re not exactly stunners they definitely underpromise and over deliver.

thats good to hear, i cannot wait for dealers to not exist anymore, theres no need no a days, direct sales at msrp all the time, small service centers and get rid of all the pointless dealerships especially ones charging over msrp and screwing the consumer

 

[ElectricIAC]

thats good to hear, i cannot wait for dealers to not exist anymore, theres no need no a days, direct sales at msrp all the time, small service centers and get rid of all the pointless dealerships especially ones charging over msrp and screwing the consumer

Lobbies won’t allow it to happen.

 

[z335is]

Tesla will not be lowering prices in the US anytime soon and in the context of the Model Y, probably never. The floor has been permanently raised.

 

[Tonedog77]

Lobbies won’t allow it to happen.

It will eventually happen as more and more makers allow online orders. Once all the supply catches up. I think in the next 10 years the dealership framework will be a dying breed

 

[Kokukenji]

Looking back, I had the means to invest a 2017-M3 worth of money in $TSLA at the time, but doubt I would have had the foresight or fortitude to hold that amount of stock to today.

If I had put that into my Roth IRA [at each of our annual contri limits back then]? Then yeah it would have been more locked in without an easy means of liquidation, but my wife and I are happy where we are today regardless. 2020 M3SR+ sold yesterday, 2023 MYLR coming next week, we have each other, life is good.

Very good outlook in general. There's a lot of could have, would have scenarios but at present, it is what it is. Congrats on the 2023 MYLR coming in soon.

 

[tangible1]

Just to put everything in perspective, My Model Y AWD (Long story, but it's the 4680 structural pack build) is scheduled to be delivered in November. Looking at everything going on at the moment, it seems like this could be the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y for the following reasons:

1. Prices are at all time high and both new and used car demand is weakening very quickly. The idea that Tesla prices only go up is false and most likely will be coming down soon. Used Tesla prices are trending down quickly as we speak.
2. Removal of ultrasonic sensors with a yet to be proven alternative.
3. HW3 is over 3 years old with HW4 likely coming soon. Given that Tesla is betting everything on Camera + AI, HW4 will most likely be a significantly improvement over HW3 over the next 5-10 years if holding the car for a while.
4. Customer Service nightmares seem to become commonplace.
5. Quality control on the Model Y is still hit or miss, I was hopeful that Austin produced model Y's would be much better, but there seems to be a ton of reports of Quality issues out of Austin as well.

For an over $60k car, this seems like it's going to be a major regret at the moment. We do need a second car, but I'm considering something else for now and see what the EV Market is like in a year or so. Just would love other peoples thoughts who own the car and I realize this is going to be a biased audience towards Tesla.

sounds like buyers remorse driven by too much internet blog time. blogs exaggerate everything in each direction, good and bad.
there's no middle on the internet since it's not special.

demand remains strong and prices aren't coming down. especially with tax rebates kicking in Jan 1.
USS vs cameras is minutiae. NBD either way. It's good for Tesla but doesn't matter to the customer. Same functional result.
HW3 vs HW4 only matters if you're ordering FSD, which is not a good option at $15K, but would likely include an HW4 upgrade if it needed it.
Customer Service issues crowd the internet. It's out of proportion to reality. Yes, *sugar* happens but much less than the internet exaggerations.
MY QC is excellent, regardless of factory made at. Compare tales 18 months ago to today on TMC. It's hardly mentioned any more.

 

[tangible1]

Wait. I wouldn’t recommend anyone buy a Tesla right now. Overpriced junk, albeit quick off the line. I’d say this forum is biased towards fanboys although there seems to be a nonzero number of realists.

find something NOT overpriced.
tax rebates have directly kicked up pricing across the EV industry.
find a more mature, solid solution EV than Tesla. I'm waiting..... then get delivery...... I'm waiting - again.
find a charging infrastructure more supportive of your EV than Tesla Supercharging. I'm still waiting....

I'm no fanboi, Tesla isn't perfect, but it's very good and there's no better solution on offer now or the near future.
price / performance / charging / software function and stability / Tesla has no equal at this time.

 

[tangible1]

BMW IX has about 111.5 kWh battery size vs. Model Y has 75-77ish kWh battery, and about 800 lbs heavier than Model Y.

BMW iX xDrive50

All details and specs of the BMW iX xDrive50 (2021). Compare price, lease, real-world range and consumption of every electric vehicle.

ev-database.org

View attachment 862851

and what does battery size matter if the net range isn't better?
it means the vehicle is less energy efficient; ie it gets lower 'gas mileage'.

 

[tangible1]

Tide is turning, I’m already discounting i4 and iX and while they’re not exactly stunners they definitely underpromise and over deliver.

tide is turning again when tax rebates kick back in January 1.
BMW EV's being discounted in today's market says a lot about their competitiveness. Not in a good way.

 

[ElectricIAC]

tide is turning again when tax rebates kick back in January 1.
BMW EV's being discounted in today's market says a lot about their competitiveness. Not in a good way.

i4 and iX won’t be eligible for tax credit and aren’t today.

They’re plenty competitive.

 

[tangible1]

i4 and iX won’t be eligible for tax credit and aren’t today.

They’re plenty competitive.

not if they're giving discounts they're not.
they don't give that unless required to move them.
everyone else is tacking on "market adjustments".

but I'm biased.
I don't care for BMW after my experience with them ($17K maintenance over 5 years). Never again.
and having owned many German cars, no German manufacturer does electrics, or especially software, very well.

 

[ElectricIAC]

not if they're giving discounts they're not.
they don't give that unless required to move them.
everyone else is tacking on "market adjustments".

but I'm biased.
I don't care for BMW after my experience with them ($17K maintenance over 5 years). Never again.
and having owned many German cars, no German manufacturer does electrics, or especially software, very well.

There’s a difference between volume dealers and profit dealers. I just happen to be on the volume side.