Is now the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y?

[Jman841]

Just to put everything in perspective, My Model Y AWD (Long story, but it's the 4680 structural pack build) is scheduled to be delivered in November. Looking at everything going on at the moment, it seems like this could be the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y for the following reasons:

1. Prices are at all time high and both new and used car demand is weakening very quickly. The idea that Tesla prices only go up is false and most likely will be coming down soon. Used Tesla prices are trending down quickly as we speak.
2. Removal of ultrasonic sensors with a yet to be proven alternative.
3. HW3 is over 3 years old with HW4 likely coming soon. Given that Tesla is betting everything on Camera + AI, HW4 will most likely be a significantly improvement over HW3 over the next 5-10 years if holding the car for a while.
4. Customer Service nightmares seem to become commonplace.
5. Quality control on the Model Y is still hit or miss, I was hopeful that Austin produced model Y's would be much better, but there seems to be a ton of reports of Quality issues out of Austin as well.

For an over $60k car, this seems like it's going to be a major regret at the moment. We do need a second car, but I'm considering something else for now and see what the EV Market is like in a year or so. Just would love other peoples thoughts who own the car and I realize this is going to be a biased audience towards Tesla.

 

[tangible1]

There’s a difference between volume dealers and profit dealers. I just happen to be on the volume side.

volume incentives from BMW in lieu of unit profit, different business models.
but if still reliant on discounts in a supply-constrained market it doesn't bode well.

 

[ElectricIAC]

volume incentives from BMW in lieu of unit profit, different business models.
but if still reliant on discounts in a supply-constrained market it doesn't bode well.

To be fair the discounted units have all been for cancellations that made it to the floor around end of month and all after IRA passed and signed. The motive is to not get dinged on next months allocation.

Anyway in the interest of keeping the thread on topic I can go into the weeds a bit more in PMs.

 

[tangible1]

To be fair the discounted units have all been for cancellations that made it to the floor around end of month and all after IRA passed and signed. The motive is to not get dinged on next months allocation.

Anyway in the interest of keeping the thread on topic I can go into the weeds a bit more in PMs.

all good
I understand the mechanics, having managed sales and marketing for several decades (different industry)

 

[barslag]

I missed my 2021 MYLR. I got rear ended with not so big bumper damage. It would cost 28k to fix and the insurance decided to total my car. I bought it for 60k+tax with 3rd row,tow hitch and the stupid midnight gray paint which is now free. My insurance paid me 83k market value. I made roughly 17k but then again once you go Tesla you never go back. The price is high now but no maintenance and no gas is a no brainer decision. I’m getting my 2023 next month and I will try my hardest to push it until January so I can get the rebate. But I miss driving a Tesla. So I might just go F**k the rebate and drive it home lol.

 

[pepperoni]

Wait, the repair costs would have been 28K so the insurance company decided to total the car and give you 83K instead? I thought a car becomes “totalled” only when the cost of repairs exceed the car’s value. Never heard of insurance offering more than the cost of repair.

 

[MP3Mike]

I thought a car becomes “totalled” only when the cost of repairs exceed the car’s value.

The car becomes totaled when the cost of repair plus the salvage value exceeds the car's value. (Some insurance companies set it at 75% of the car's value.) They also add in things like rental car/storage fees, and possibly diminished value.

 

[pepperoni]

The car becomes totaled when the cost of repair plus the salvage value exceeds the car's value. (Some insurance companies set it at 75% of the car's value.) They also add in things like rental car/storage fees, and possibly diminished value.

Fair enough, but my confusion remains. Am I to understand that the “salvage value” of @barslag ’s MYLR exceeded $83K - $28K = $55K, after sustaining $28K of damage? That’s more than I paid for mine back in March. Seems hard to believe.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Fair enough, but my confusion remains. Am I to understand that the “salvage value” of @barslag ’s MYLR exceeded $83K - $28K = $55K, after sustaining $28K of damage? That’s more than I paid for mine back in March. Seems hard to believe.

If you think that’s wild, there’s people that paid less than 40K for their MY

 

[Jman841]

I ended up canceling my Model Y order and going with a Model 3 RWD. Saving nearly $19k for basically the same car minus the extra height and cargo space. Very happy with my decision as I did not want this to become the family beater car.

In the future, once Model Y prices come down or the competition has something we're interested in for a family beater, we'll grab one to fill that role. For now, I feel like the value of the Model 3 RWD With the LFP pack is much better at $47k vs. $66k for a Model Y LR.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I ended up canceling my Model Y order and going with a Model 3 RWD. Saving nearly $19k for basically the same car minus the extra height and cargo space. Very happy with my decision as I did not want this to become the family beater car.

In the future, once Model Y prices come down or the competition has something we're interested in for a family beater, we'll grab one to fill that role. For now, I feel like the value of the Model 3 RWD With the LFP pack is much better at $47k vs. $66k for a Model Y LR.

I have a theory on this: The model 3 may end up becoming the loss leader/thin margin car until they can introduce a cheaper model and the Y will be the bread and butter car.

S/X remain as flagship.

 

[Jman841]

I have a theory on this: The model 3 may end up becoming the loss leader/thin margin car until they can introduce a cheaper model and the Y will be the bread and butter car.

S/X remain as flagship.

I mean the Model 3 LR is $58k, so $11k more than the RWD model. I do believe they will bring the price under $55k in January and introduce a non LFP RWD/SR variant if it does not qualify for the tax credit due to the batteries.

We know the Model Y AWD variant is coming soon, priced at $62k and will qualify for the tax credit, so $55k for the AWD if someone qualifies (I won't).

 

[voxel]

We know the Model Y AWD variant is coming soon, priced at $62k and will qualify for the tax credit, so $55k for the AWD if someone qualifies (I won't).

Nobody knows for sure. Most likely half due to the battery components/assembly in the US. Probably 100% for 4680 cells in 2023 but again that's a guess.

2024... yeah.. good luck. My guess is 0% of all EVs with current rules.

 

[tangible1]

Nobody knows for sure. Most likely half due to the battery components/assembly in the US. Probably 100% for 4680 cells in 2023 but again that's a guess.

2024... yeah.. good luck. My guess is 0% of all EVs with current rules.

to further muddy the waters, Congress is now making noises that they want all EV's to qualify, and the EU and Japan are badgering for the same.
in addition, buying votes has become policy.
political odds are fair that the rules will get relaxed, the rebates will get approved, but the exact amounts subject to ..... arbitration in smoke-filled rooms.

 

[Kokukenji]

I have a theory on this: The model 3 may end up becoming the loss leader/thin margin car until they can introduce a cheaper model and the Y will be the bread and butter car.

S/X remain as flagship.

I can see this. The way they price the Y is going to be more important moving forward than folks that want to just move the slider to the max and buy the flagships. The Y will be cross shopped often and other manufacturers will use it as a pulse check.

 

[Robert Franco]

I had a model y performance for like 1 year. I traded it in because of it's lack of quality and luxury. Happy with my decision. I would never buy another Tesla. Would recommend a different brand if quality and luxury are important to you.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I had a model y performance for like 1 year. I traded it in because of it's lack of quality and luxury. Happy with my decision. I would never buy another Tesla. Would recommend a different brand if quality and luxury are important to you.

I never considered Tesla to be a luxury brand personally, Luxury item though? Absolutely.

 

[Kokukenji]

I had a model y performance for like 1 year. I traded it in because of it's lack of quality and luxury. Happy with my decision. I would never buy another Tesla. Would recommend a different brand if quality and luxury are important to you.

What did you end up buying that met your needs?

 

[Robert Franco]

What did you end up buying that met your needs?

I got a Genesis gv80. Would have probably gotten the gv60 if they were available in my state.

 

[ElectricIAC]

What did you end up buying that met your needs?

Fat etron isn’t bad and has a nice charge curve despite being a pig on range…

 

[Kokukenji]

I got a Genesis gv80. Would have probably gotten the gv60 if they were available in my state.

Ah, very cool. Enjoy the new ride.

Fat etron isn’t bad and has a nice charge curve despite being a pig on range…

lol, still can't get used to the nickname for this car.