Is the Austin / Fremont after April 7th MYP kept secret because it's brilliant or boring?

[Yperformance]

Have at it guys and gals.

 

[beantownrich]

I'm going with boring. I still don't think they're going to tell us anything special at the CyberRodeo other than maybe when they can start delivering cars. As I've speculated elsewhere, I don't think they're seeing the first gen 4680 batteries as useful in performance vehicles right now (hence starting with lower end models and not putting them in the plaid cars as originally planned). And the notion of the AWD Model Y is probably the amount of 4680 batteries they can put in the pack to make it structurally sound while allowing them not to consume their entire stockpile. If 1 million batteries filled 1000 LR maybe it fills 1500 AWD (napkin math) so they can ramp smoother.

I think despite all our hopes and dreams, the economic reality in a chip constrained world with high gas prices and low competition is Tesla doesn't need to stop production of their highest selling vehicle for a factory changeover anytime soon, they don't need to make them more performant or efficient, they don't need to add additional features such as air suspension, ventilated seats, HW4, a birdseye camera, etc. Tesla's goal right now is to pump out as many cars as it can. Which kinda makes sense for their mission and share price.

I think it's worth noting that while the 3 has been out since 2017, the Y has only been in the market for 2 years and other than the manufacturing efficiencies gained with megacasts and structural battery packs there is no real need to refresh the car's feature set.

 

[Destiny1701]

Those mega casts and structural packs are the holy grail in my view wrt weight savings and handling. Heck I’d be fine with a 2170 in a new structural design. Probably some marginal efficiency right there and better curb weigh/handling.

 

[Yperformance]

Not sure there is much weight saving without changing from 2170 to 4680. There would hopefully be some increase in rigidity and tolerances.

 

[Geocvl]

I am just hoping to hear that ramping up production is going better than expected and everyone's EDD will move up significantly

 

[voip-ninja]

I'm going with boring. I still don't think they're going to tell us anything special at the CyberRodeo other than maybe when they can start delivering cars. As I've speculated elsewhere, I don't think they're seeing the first gen 4680 batteries as useful in performance vehicles right now (hence starting with lower end models and not putting them in the plaid cars as originally planned). And the notion of the AWD Model Y is probably the amount of 4680 batteries they can put in the pack to make it structurally sound while allowing them not to consume their entire stockpile. If 1 million batteries filled 1000 LR maybe it fills 1500 AWD (napkin math) so they can ramp smoother.

I think despite all our hopes and dreams, the economic reality in a chip constrained world with high gas prices and low competition is Tesla doesn't need to stop production of their highest selling vehicle for a factory changeover anytime soon, they don't need to make them more performant or efficient, they don't need to add additional features such as air suspension, ventilated seats, HW4, a birdseye camera, etc. Tesla's goal right now is to pump out as many cars as it can. Which kinda makes sense for their mission and share price.

I think it's worth noting that while the 3 has been out since 2017, the Y has only been in the market for 2 years and other than the manufacturing efficiencies gained with megacasts and structural battery packs there is no real need to refresh the car's feature set.

That would make sense for a normal car company but does not fit with Tesla's Modus Operandi one bit.

Tesla has continually pushed and introduced innovation as soon as they were able and never have been comfortable to rest on their laurels or coast on present success.

Despite what things look like on the surface Tesla has increasing competitive pressure this year and in the next two years for certain. It's worth noting that competitors get a $7500 federal tax cushion to help them compete against Tesla. That tax credit isn't coming back to Tesla.

I expect Tesla to do something this year, whether it's 4860 or something else. The only reason they won't is that they simply can't get the parts/materials.

Elon's goal is to still have cars that are far enough ahead of his competition that they can't catch up.

 

[Yperformance]

That would make sense for a normal car company but does not fit with Tesla's Modus Operandi one bit.

Tesla has continually pushed and introduced innovation as soon as they were able and never have been comfortable to rest on their laurels or coast on present success.

Despite what things look like on the surface Tesla has increasing competitive pressure this year and in the next two years for certain. It's worth noting that competitors get a $7500 federal tax cushion to help them compete against Tesla. That tax credit isn't coming back to Tesla.

I expect Tesla to do something this year, whether it's 4860 or something else. The only reason they won't is that they simply can't get the parts/materials.

Elon's goal is to still have cars that are far enough ahead of his competition that they can't catch up.

Like the way you think, that gives us with MYP on order some hope.