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Israel/Hamas conflict
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Hamas just bought themselves a lifeftime subscription for lawn and garden care:
I expect buses are already moving the civilian population to the West Bank as we speak. I expect clearing operations in Gaza to take about a week. I don't expect Gaza to be repopulated; I expect it to be depopulated, pending legal resolution of the status of the Palestinians.
Was Hamas trying to force the issue with Russian & Iranian assistance? This will end poorly for all three parties...
I expect buses are already moving the civilian population to the West Bank as we speak. I expect clearing operations in Gaza to take about a week. I don't expect Gaza to be repopulated; I expect it to be depopulated, pending legal resolution of the status of the Palestinians.
Was Hamas trying to force the issue with Russian & Iranian assistance? This will end poorly for all three parties...
Tiger
Active Member
How will this affect Ukraine war and how will it affect global macroeconomics and Tesla? Let's speculate here to keep it separate from the Russia/Ukraine discussion.
A lot depends on how long it lasts. Hamas is already losing ground to Israel's IDF. World opinion may turn against Palestine to some extent though. They are siding with Russia and instead of being the victims of Israeli aggression as they have been selling for years, they went on the offensive and committed documented war crimes in the process.
A good chance the $6bil that Joe released to Iran probably played a factor in the attack. Sure gave them some extra money to work with.
How much of those funds have been released to Iran? How long has this attack been in planning? Would it have occurred if South Korea frozen Iranian' funds hadn't been negotiated to eventually be released?A good chance the $6bil that Joe released to Iran probably played a factor in the attack. Sure gave them some extra money to work with.
Answers:
0,
probably months if not well over a year,
definitely.
It is much easier to spend money if you know you are going to get money to replace it! Just like knowing when most people are going to get their paychecks they tend to splurge.
They likely have been in negotiations with the US for some time and know the US always folds (for the most part) to their demands. Once they knew the money was coming, lot easier to open up their pocketbook and spend. Not to mention all the billions they had already got that were supposed to be used for humanitarian purposes...
Don't be naive and don't think that didn't factor into their calculus. Never forget the billions Obama sent in cash previously. Pretty sure some of that money was funneled into terrorism.
thehill.com
foreignaffairs.house.gov
They likely have been in negotiations with the US for some time and know the US always folds (for the most part) to their demands. Once they knew the money was coming, lot easier to open up their pocketbook and spend. Not to mention all the billions they had already got that were supposed to be used for humanitarian purposes...
Don't be naive and don't think that didn't factor into their calculus. Never forget the billions Obama sent in cash previously. Pretty sure some of that money was funneled into terrorism.
Obama should apologize for shameful cash payment to Iran
Any honest assessment would conclude that Iran used at least part of America’s massive payment to finance terrorist attacks.
thehill.com
5 Times the Obama Admin Insisted Cash Was the Only Way to Pay Iran - Committee on Foreign Affairs
As details of the administration’s $1.7 billion cash payment to Iran began to leak last month, the administration argued – from President Obama on down – that there was simply no other way to pay Iran. “We couldn't send them a check and we could not wire the money,” the president said on August 4.
foreignaffairs.house.gov
Bet TSLA
Active Member
The constant reporting that this attack by Hamas was "unprovoked" is bizarre. Netanyahu and his allies have been provoking as hard as they can for as long as they can.
See Israeli settler violence - Wikipedia
Or this opinion piece in Haaretz: Netanyahu's government is responsible for the ’23 Israel-Gaza debacle | Opinion
See Israeli settler violence - Wikipedia
Or this opinion piece in Haaretz: Netanyahu's government is responsible for the ’23 Israel-Gaza debacle | Opinion
Yep. Though actually extremists on both sides looking to unleash a huge bloodletting just to prop up their own power. And sadly people will blame everyone but the evil people who created this tinder box.
I think it may be recent events at the Al-Aqsa Mosque that could be a catalyst to the unfolding events
www.aljazeera.com
Maybe not the main reason Hamas have decided to take these actions but it wouldn’t have helped relations between Palestine and Israel
How Al-Aqsa mosque, 3rd holiest site in Islam, became focal point of Israeli-Palestinian tensions
Holiest site in Judaism & 3rd holiest in Islam, Al-Aqsa complex is managed by Jordanian-appointed Jerusalem Waqf Council, while security there is overseen by Israel.
theprint.in
Israeli settlers storm Al-Aqsa Mosque complex on fifth day of Sukkot
Israeli settlers storm complex in groups and attempt to perform ‘Talmudic rituals’, according to a Waqf official.
Maybe not the main reason Hamas have decided to take these actions but it wouldn’t have helped relations between Palestine and Israel
As a second point I forgot to add. If the funds haven't been released to Iran yet, they should stop the transfer immediately.
I am sure Netanyahu might have poked a bit. At the same time, in general the IDF has been very surgical to minimize killing civilians. The indiscriminate slaughter and of Israeli citizens is where they lost any empathy from me.
I won't claim to be an expert on Israeli/Palestinian affairs. I was sort of on the fence between side I felt had a better position for me to support them. I have Israeli and Palestinian friends. I had listened to them both. I ended up going to Israel and the Middle East in as well multiple times. I ended up spending some time there in both the Israeli-controlled areas as well as the Palestinian-controlled areas. Maybe not a long time but about 6 weeks in total.
While I walked through the same checkpoints the Palestinians would cross over between the Palestinian and Israeli-controlled areas. The crudeness which I saw the Israelis manning the checkpoint by the Palestinians just blew me away. The Israelis I saw treated everyone with respect crossing through. The Palestinians would curse, spit at the Israelis, act belligerent and generally be uncooperative like nothing I've seen at a border crossing checkpoint. Once inside I was shocked at how often they tried to take advantage of me and my friends in some way or another. For example wanting to charge me $100 for a 5 mile taxi ride. They would try and cheat me at stores. About the only place I was treated normally, or even approaching "well" was at an international hotel.
By contrast, I was treated well almost everywhere I went in Israel. This wasn't because I was an American. I was as incognito with my national identity everywhere I went. At the time I had Russian flags on my backpack and Russian stickers on my suitcase. Easy to do as I speak, read and write Russian fluently.
I had long ago learned that nobody generally messes with Russians when they are traveling except for a few countries. So if anything, for the Palestinians, I would have been coming from a country that was more sympathetic to their plight. So if this was how they treated their "friends", it showed me a lot about their mindset. This was pretty much true everywhere I went in the Palestinian-controlled areas. Pretty much everywhere I went in the Middle East I traveled as a "Russian" until I had to produce my passport for travel or check-in. I can only imagine how they would have treated me in Palestinian areas if they had known I was an American. Even traveling with my Russian-speaking (and Arabic-speaking) Muslim girlfriend, they tried to cheat us at almost every turn. The verbal abuse, cat-calling, and disrespect she dealt with was pretty bad as well. She never let on that she was Muslim. I asked why not; she said it would just be worse... They even wanted to charge us $200 to go into the Al Aqsa Mosque.
I never saw a Palestinian treated poorly by Israelis. I did see a lot in the opposite direction. Suffice to say, after my last trip, I had a pretty good idea of which side I was more willing to support. I am not going to say I saw all the behind scenes conflict, but I definitely had enough experience with how I saw Palestinians treat others to have a solid opinion about that. My girlfriend at the time came away with a very negative opinion as well. She was strongly in favor of Palestinians prior and in about 3 trips there, they were able to lose her empathy.
ATPMSD
Active Member
Moderator:
I appreciate the comments, but as this has nothing to do with Tesla Investor Discussions perhaps we could move this to the “off-topic” forum?
I appreciate the comments, but as this has nothing to do with Tesla Investor Discussions perhaps we could move this to the “off-topic” forum?
The Ukraine/Russia thread is in this forum that is why I think that is why this one was put here as well.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Where these threads live is perhaps of interest to moderators. But as a contributor, I couldn't care less. The purpose of these threads on war stuff is to keep such content out of investor discussions.
So move it around if it makes you happy. I can't imagine anybody will care much.
ATPMSD
Active Member
We have a lots of postings that have nothing to do with the title of the forums they are posted too. But I guess if the moderators are OK then I really don’t care. Just an observation.
It is much easier to spend money if you know you are going to get money to replace it! Just like knowing when most people are going to get their paychecks they tend to splurge.
They likely have been in negotiations with the US for some time and know the US always folds (for the most part) to their demands. Once they knew the money was coming, lot easier to open up their pocketbook and spend. Not to mention all the billions they had already got that were supposed to be used for humanitarian purposes...
Don't be naive and don't think that didn't factor into their calculus. Never forget the billions Obama sent in cash previously. Pretty sure some of that money was funneled into terrorism.
Obama should apologize for shameful cash payment to Iran
Any honest assessment would conclude that Iran used at least part of America’s massive payment to finance terrorist attacks.
5 Times the Obama Admin Insisted Cash Was the Only Way to Pay Iran - Committee on Foreign Affairs
As details of the administration’s $1.7 billion cash payment to Iran began to leak last month, the administration argued – from President Obama on down – that there was simply no other way to pay Iran. “We couldn't send them a check and we could not wire the money,” the president said on August 4.
I am in favor of the sanctions on Iran, but the money Iran has gotten from US negotiation has been their own money that was freed up in exchange for doing something the US wanted.
PolitiFact - Donald Trump says Iran got $150 billion and $1.8 billion in cash. That's Half True
The most recent transfer were funds held by South Korea that were Iranian funds that came from selling oil (presumably to South Korea). These funds were put in a Qatari bank and are earmarked for humanitarian purposes only. With the corruption in the system, I'm sure the Iranians are working to get around these limitations, but the whole deal was part of a prisoner exchange. The US was trying to get 5 Americans out of prison in Iran. A few of these sorts of deals happen around the world every year.
US allows $6 billion transfer as part of Iran prisoner swap
If any foreign player is behind this, I would guess Putin is the puppet master. He wants the US to be as distracted as possible and probably thinks the US is going to drop everything to help Israel. It's another desperation move on his part. Israel is fully capable of taking care of itself here. Hamas is a powerful force as an insurgency organization, but in a straight up conflict they are very weak compared to the IDF. They chose to fight the IDF on the IDF's terms.
If multiple state actors got involved as they did in some of the earlier wars, it might be more existential for the Israelis. This is a mess and Israel has taken some damage, but the situation is well within their capabilities.
Iran is most likely involved in the Israeli conflict right now, and they may have more capabilities because of funds they have received in the last year or so, but they have received a lot more funds from Russia than from the west. Since the war began Russia has been investing in Iran as well as buying whatever military goods they can from there. If Iran needed funds to stimulate Hamas into action, Russia would fund it if they thought it would help distract the west from the war in Ukraine. And funds from Russia have no strings attached unlike funds from the west that are freed up as part of some negotiation.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Some interesting observations in this X thread from a historian:
(or the thread unroll here)
"But how is slaughtering hundreds of civilians winning? Because in simple terms of raw power, they've done something Israel was powerless to stop. They've hurt Israel. That's what matters...."
"Netanyahu's goal was to manage the Gaza conflict at a sustainable level indefinitely. That's now been exposed as impossible...."
"A conventional battlefield victory by Hamas inside Gaza is entirely possible. I don't think the Hamas leadership would have launched yesterday's attack if they thought otherwise."
(or the thread unroll here)
"But how is slaughtering hundreds of civilians winning? Because in simple terms of raw power, they've done something Israel was powerless to stop. They've hurt Israel. That's what matters...."
"Netanyahu's goal was to manage the Gaza conflict at a sustainable level indefinitely. That's now been exposed as impossible...."
"A conventional battlefield victory by Hamas inside Gaza is entirely possible. I don't think the Hamas leadership would have launched yesterday's attack if they thought otherwise."
I have been reading about what is occurring in Israel intensely. I will post articles as I have time. First, I have seen several articles that suggest there is a link between the war in UKR and the attack, and soon to be war in Israel. Here is one from @avoigt. The gist is that Putin is trying to siphon funding and resources (primarily) from the US away from UKR and starting conflicts elsewhere helps that. Other examples are given, that affect other countries. Of course we know that Russia and Iran are collaborating.
Second as @wdolson notes above, the $6B in “payment” to Iran for the release of hostages, has not been paid. Several articles on this. Here is one from Mark Hertling.
Another good post pointing out why letting conflicts where one party has a defined intent to eradicate the other (read Hamas charter wrt to Israel and Jews; and of course Putin and the the intent to wipe-out Ukrainians) become “frozen” to allow for a compromise peace approach doesn’t work.
It should be obvious from the articles noted above that there is a connection(s) between these conflicts.
I will just finish with saying the intentional killing of civilians, and intentional brutalizing of women, children, elderly non-combatants is evil. Period. There is no justification for it. Not in UKR. Not in Israel. Not anywhere.
Second as @wdolson notes above, the $6B in “payment” to Iran for the release of hostages, has not been paid. Several articles on this. Here is one from Mark Hertling.
Another good post pointing out why letting conflicts where one party has a defined intent to eradicate the other (read Hamas charter wrt to Israel and Jews; and of course Putin and the the intent to wipe-out Ukrainians) become “frozen” to allow for a compromise peace approach doesn’t work.
It should be obvious from the articles noted above that there is a connection(s) between these conflicts.
I will just finish with saying the intentional killing of civilians, and intentional brutalizing of women, children, elderly non-combatants is evil. Period. There is no justification for it. Not in UKR. Not in Israel. Not anywhere.
Conjecture. Show any proof at all. Besides something coming out of Israel.A good chance the $6bil that Joe released to Iran probably played a factor in the attack. Sure gave them some extra money to work with.
There are enough RW talking heads out there already.
Much of the Republican criticism focused on a complex deal announced by the Biden administration in September to release five US citizens detained in Iran. As part of the deal, roughly $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets that were being held in South Korea were transferred to an account in Doha, Qatar.
WATERLOO, Iowa: Former President Donald Trump and other GOP contenders tried to lay blame on the Biden administration after Hamas militants launched the deadliest attack on Israel in decades, citing a $6 billion transfer to Iran.
The $6 billion figure is not US taxpayer money, senior Biden administration officials stressed at the time of the deal, but rather payments made by South Korea to Iran to buy oil in recent years. The funds had been stuck in South Korea due to US sanctions. That money is now held in a restricted account in Doha, and is meant to be used for solely humanitarian purposes — such as food and medicine for Iranians — and handled by what the administration described as vetted non-Iranian vendors.
Brian Nelson, the undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at Treasury, also stressed that “these restricted funds cannot go to Iran” and that “any suggestion to the contrary is false and misleading.”
Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, said she could not directly address Republican criticism due to federal restrictions.
“But I can clarify the facts: Not a single cent from these funds has been spent, and when it is spent, it can only be spent on things like food and medicine for the Iranian people,” she said Saturday in a statement. “These funds have absolutely nothing to do with the horrific attacks today and this is not the time to spread disinformation.” BBC News
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