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Israel/Hamas conflict

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Yuval (Jewish) has been almost pro Palestinian previously. Now more balanced:
There were some interesting points in this interview:
  • The brutality of the attack and the filming of it is aimed at inciting revenge that is over the top. The goal is to destroy any possibility of peace process. That is the goal of Iran in particular
  • Netanyahu’s approach to governing is to sow divisions between factions, and tear down state institutions. This playbook sounds familiar if you live in the US
  • He condemns the brutality of the attacks and does not suggest, not delivering justice to the perpetrators

This interview and a set of posts from relatives of Israelis killed by Hamas, who argue for avoiding revenge killing against innocents, is causing me to re-think how to approach the situation. I still think Israel must destroy Hamas leadership and ability to wage war. But also, dump Netanyahu, and try to find a way to bring peace. I still think it requires the neighboring Arab countries to support, potentially including land. And it still requires addressing adversarial state actors such as Iran.

Not mentioned in this interview, but increasingly noted elsewhere, is the involvement of Russia. That play is somewhat obvious, but it is really making me think about an axis of evil.

I will be with some people this weekend who are even closer to this situation than I am, likely with family members affected. I will be interested to get their perspective.
 
The speed and reliability of the owner’s M3P saved his life during the recent attacks in Israel.

 
I don't know why people keep harping on the Iranian money that was held in South Korea that was transferred to a Qatari bank and has not been paid is supposedly funding the Hamas operation when the extra money for this operation probably came from Russia. It's in the Russian's best interests to cause as much turmoil in the Middle East as possible to try and distract the west from Ukraine.
In that post, I am referring the previous money sent to Iran. Remember the plane load of cash Obaman sent to Iran? Again the point I made about the $6B that was going to be released, doesn't have to directly go to Hamas to have an impact. It will allow Iran to free up $6b somewhere else if and use it, if they want, for terrorism since they know they'll be getting $6B in the future.

A similar analogy would be I have $50k in the bank. I don't want to spend it on a new Tesla. Oh wait, I am getting my bonus check in a few week. and it happens to be $50k. Oh snap, I'll just spend the $50k I have in the bank to buy my new Tesla. I could legitimately say I didn't use my bonus check to buy my Tesla. To say it had no impact or didn't facilitate the purchase would be disingenuous. Technically I didn't spend my bonus check to buy the car. No dollars from it were used. Knowing I'd soon be receiving that money sure as hell made it an easy decision to drop the money on the Tesla.

The same thing could be at play in Iran. I'll gladly fund terrorism out of my normal budget if I know it will be replaced by funds coming in soon. BTW, thanks, Obama for the parting gift of untraceable cash shipped by a plane to Iran! I hope nobody here is naive enough to believe that Iran didn't factor getting money from the West into their terrorism budget expense forecast.

As for Russia, they'll do whatever they can to win the war. If this op has been planned for years, you can bet Hamas has been putting the influx of money from the West for Humanitarian aid as well as Iran's toward terrorism.
 
If other countries start getting involved Israel will have no choice but to absolutely indiscriminately obliterate the Gaza strip. No country with competent leadership wants to fights on multiple fronts with limited resources. Precision strikes and ground fighting in Gaza will be replaced with bombs and bunker busters. Then after nothing is left alive in the Gaza strip you are back to being able to focus personnel and resources on a single front.
 
This was interesting. I haven't seen it anywhere else. So it isn't validated. At the same time, it aligns with what I have been thinking: Hamas has set up a killing zone in Gaza with booby traps in the event the IDF invades. They've had a long time to plan this.


I have also seen several reports of Hamas blocking Gazans from moving South. This is just one source where I've seen it. They are a bunch out there already. The obviously want human shields and a high body count.
 
In that post, I am referring the previous money sent to Iran. Remember the plane load of cash Obaman sent to Iran? Again the point I made about the $6B that was going to be released, doesn't have to directly go to Hamas to have an impact. It will allow Iran to free up $6b somewhere else if and use it, if they want, for terrorism since they know they'll be getting $6B in the future.

A similar analogy would be I have $50k in the bank. I don't want to spend it on a new Tesla. Oh wait, I am getting my bonus check in a few week. and it happens to be $50k. Oh snap, I'll just spend the $50k I have in the bank to buy my new Tesla. I could legitimately say I didn't use my bonus check to buy my Tesla. To say it had no impact or didn't facilitate the purchase would be disingenuous. Technically I didn't spend my bonus check to buy the car. No dollars from it were used. Knowing I'd soon be receiving that money sure as hell made it an easy decision to drop the money on the Tesla.

The same thing could be at play in Iran. I'll gladly fund terrorism out of my normal budget if I know it will be replaced by funds coming in soon. BTW, thanks, Obama for the parting gift of untraceable cash shipped by a plane to Iran! I hope nobody here is naive enough to believe that Iran didn't factor getting money from the West into their terrorism budget expense forecast.

As for Russia, they'll do whatever they can to win the war. If this op has been planned for years, you can bet Hamas has been putting the influx of money from the West for Humanitarian aid as well as Iran's toward terrorism.

During the Obama administration several countries released money that had been held in their countries as part of the Iran nuclear deal, which the Senate refused to even consider (controlled by the other party) and Trump tore up soon after coming into office which allowed Iran to go back to enriching uranium. It was a fir of pique that made the world a more dangerous place.

There was $400 million in cash transferred as part of a deal to release Americans held in Iran. That money again was Iranian money that had been in the US since 1979 as part of an arms deal that was in process when the Shah was overthrown. None of the money Iran got was US taxpayer money.

Obama Didn't Give Iran '150 Billion in Cash' - FactCheck.org

Investigating the Obama administration’s $400 million payment to Iran

This money transfer was also over 8 years ago.

The recent $6 billion is too recent to have affected the current Hamas operation in Israel. Even if they were planning on offsetting other expenses with the $6 billion they didn't know they were getting it until a month ago and this Hamas operation has been in the planning stages for six months to a year. The money used to fund the operation was spent many months ago and it most likely came from Russia, not anywhere in the west.

If the nuclear deal had been ratified and not torn up, Iran would be now moving out of Russia's orbit and into the greater world community. Tearing up the deal was a stupid move that made the world more dangerous.

Iran desperately doesn't want Israel to eliminate Hamas as a threat. But they know better than to confront Israel directly. The last time they tried that Israel collected a trove of Iranian military hardware.

When did Iran confront Israel directly? There are, at minimum, two countries between Iran and Israel and none of them are going to allow Iran to send an army through their territory.
 
The recent $6 billion is too recent to have affected the current Hamas operation in Israel. Even if they were planning on offsetting other expenses with the $6 billion they didn't know they were getting it until a month ago and this Hamas operation has been in the planning stages for six months to a year. The money used to fund the operation was spent many months ago and it most likely came from Russia, not anywhere in the west.
We'll agree to disagree. I think it likely negotiations have been going on for some time and maybe was finally fruitful for Iran. As for the money during the Iran deal, anyone with a right mind knew what Iran was going to do with the money. Still want to know why it was sent in cash.

Obama's foreign policy was terrible and helped set up a lot of the issues we have now. They did nothing when Russia invaded Crimea (heaven knows how many calls I made to the State Dept.) and sure helped Iran with the nuclear deal. Almost everyone, except the idiots on our side, could figure out that Iran would cheat everywhere they could.
 
When did Iran confront Israel directly? There are, at minimum, two countries between Iran and Israel and none of them are going to allow Iran to send an army through their territory.

I believe 2018 was the most recent incident where Iranian forces fired missiles at targets in the Israeli Golan Heights. Israel destroyed Iranian military hardware in Syria would be more accurate than collected. They did collect quite a lot of Egyptian, Syrian, and Iraqi military hardware in past conflicts, though.

 
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We'll agree to disagree. I think it likely negotiations have been going on for some time and maybe was finally fruitful for Iran. As for the money during the Iran deal, anyone with a right mind knew what Iran was going to do with the money. Still want to know why it was sent in cash.

Obama's foreign policy was terrible and helped set up a lot of the issues we have now. They did nothing when Russia invaded Crimea (heaven knows how many calls I made to the State Dept.) and sure helped Iran with the nuclear deal. Almost everyone, except the idiots on our side, could figure out that Iran would cheat everywhere they could.
Do you think Crimea would have fought Russia like Ukraine has been if Crimea had US support?
 
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To be consistent with Egypt, the CIA also knew about the impending attack from Hamas and issued the reports twice on 9/28 and 10/5/2023. Where's the warning from Israel's intelligence agency Mossad?

 
To be consistent with Egypt, the CIA also knew about the impending attack from Hamas and issued the reports twice on 9/28 and 10/5/2023. Where's the warning from Israel's intelligence agency Mossad?


Stories like this are why I think Netanyahu's government was deliberately looking the other way so they could have an excuse to go to war and distract from the other problems the government has caused.
 
Stories like this are why I think Netanyahu's government was deliberately looking the other way so they could have an excuse to go to war and distract from the other problems the government has caused.
If that was the thought by Netanyahu and his government, they are in for a rude awakening, once the dust settles. Thomas Friedman penned an Op-Ed in the New York Times this morning, that included the following,
“But what makes this war different for me from any war before is Israel’s internal politics. In the past nine months, a group of Israeli far-right and ultra-Orthodox politicians led by Netanyahu tried to kidnap Israeli democracy in plain sight. The religious-nationalist-settler right, led by the prime minister, tried to take over Israel’s judiciary and other key institutions by eliminating the power of Israel’s Supreme Court to exercise judicial review. That attempt opened multiple fractures across Israeli society. Israel was recklessly being taken by its leadership to the brink of a civil war for an ideological flight of fancy. These fractures were seen by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah and may have stirred their boldness.
If you want to get just a little feel for those fractures — and the volcanic anger at Netanyahu for the way he divided the country before this war — watch the video that went viral in Israel two days ago when Idit Silman, a minister in Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party, was tossed out of the Assaf Harofeh Hospital in Tzrifin when she went to visit some wounded.
“You’ve ruined this country. Get out of here,” an Israeli doctor yelled at her. “How are you not ashamed to wage another war?” another person told her. “Now it’s our turn,” the doctor can be heard screaming in a video published on X, formerly known as Twitter, and reported by The Forward. “We are in charge. We will govern here — right, left, a nation united — without you. You’ve ruined everything!”

There were a number of other good points in his article. I will note a few here as well as link it. I know sometimes the NYT’s artcles are paywalled:
  • He believes the goal of Hamas is to disrupt the peace process which was showing progress
  • He refers to the way that Hamas acts and how Israel and other Middle Eastern countries have acted in return is to “out crazy each other.” This bears striking resemblance to the Russian strategy of “escalate to deescalate”
  • He cites the example of what happened in Syria in 1982, when “Hamas’s political forefathers, the Muslim Brotherhood of Syria, tried to topple Assad’s secular regime by starting a rebellion in the city of Hama.” He goes on to say, “Assad pounded the Brotherhood’s neighborhoods in Hama relentlessly for days, letting no one out, and brought in bulldozers and leveled it as flat as a parking lot, killing some 20,000 of his own people in the process. I walked on that rubble weeks later. An Arab leader I know told me privately how, afterward, Assad laconically shrugged when he was asked about it: “People live. People die.”
It isn’t just Israel who has struggled with solving the Palestinian problem. Other Arab nations have also, and it has typically resulted in societal disruptions leading to government instability. This is why any solution must involve other Arab states, and they can’t pretend that it is an “Israeli” problem.

If you are able to view it, I recommend reading it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/14/...ytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
 
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