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Israel/Hamas conflict
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Jigglypuff
Member
If the US hadn't gotten distracted with Iraq which had nothing to do with 9/11 and had committed the forces to Afghanistan, the Al Qaeda leadership would have been rounded up by the end of 2001.
When I was watching the events on 9/11 unfold, I was wondering to myself how the US was going to screw up the response. Initially I was impressed, but as the rhetoric about Iraq ramped up, I saw it unfolding. I was dead set against the Iraq invasion and called it the biggest strategic mistake the US had ever made before it happened.
Authoritarians do get deposed, but it always happens when the population either gets so fed up with the regime they organize and rebel, and usually a fair number get killed in the process. Or a black swan event allows the population to rise up and depose the leader.
Authoritarians are usually quick to kill, sometimes horrifically, anyone who opposes them. They stay in power by keeping the population fearful, making examples of anyone who opposes them, and does everything they can to make the population believe they are powerless.
Hamas has a built in advantage to control their population. There is a very clear enemy they can point to and blame all the hardships on them. That keeps the population from deposing them because they feel it wouldn't help and might make things worse. The education system has also taught children that the real enemy is Israel. People grow up steeped in a world where Hamas is the hamstrung heroes fighting on the behalf of the population and Israel is the big bad enemy that wants to exterminate all Palestinians. The way Israel has conducted this war has just reinforced those memes.
Both sides in this war see this as an existential fight for the very existence of their people. These notions are deeply ingrained through education and experience.
There's a carrot for Israel to agree to a two state solution. Biden is probably the best deal maker president the US has had since Lyndon Johnson.
I dunno about that. Especially after last week. Israel is just going to wait Biden out.
Robert Gates (Defense Secretary for both Republicans and Democrats) famously said that Joe Biden has been wrong about every major foreign policy issue over the past 40 years. Watching Biden dither on both Ukraine and Israel, let alone the terrible bugout from Afghanistan and inexplicably trying to woo Iranians and their terrorist proxies (Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah) over Suni Gulf Arabs seems to continue with this pattern of being wrong.
Robert Gates Thinks Joe Biden Hasn't Stopped Being Wrong for 40 Years
"I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,” former Defense Secretary Robert Gates says of Vice President Joe Biden in his new book coming out later this month.
www.theatlantic.com
I am not a Trump fan, but thought he (and Kushner) worked some pretty good deals between the Arabs and Israel with the Abraham Accords. Of course, no one in our current government or Media wants to admit it. They all thought moving the embassy to Jerusalem and taking out Iran's Solomeni would cause greater strife in the Region.
I dunno about that. Especially after last week. Israel is just going to wait Biden out.
Robert Gates (Defense Secretary for both Republicans and Democrats) famously said that Joe Biden has been wrong about every major foreign policy issue over the past 40 years. Watching Biden dither on both Ukraine and Israel, let alone the terrible bugout from Afghanistan and inexplicably trying to woo Iranians and their terrorist proxies (Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah) over Suni Gulf Arabs seems to continue with this pattern of being wrong.
Robert Gates Thinks Joe Biden Hasn't Stopped Being Wrong for 40 Years
"I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades,” former Defense Secretary Robert Gates says of Vice President Joe Biden in his new book coming out later this month.
I saw an interview with him given by Tim Miller a few weeks ago. He's definitely anti-Trump, but he is incredibly critical of Biden for some reason. Miller was having to defend Biden in the interview and Miller is tepid about him.
One thing Biden got right in foreign affairs that Gates doesn't give him credit for is rallying NATO to Ukraine's defense before the war and in the early stages. Biden opened up and declassified quite a bit of intelligence the US had on Russia's build up for the war that he shared with Ukraine and the rest of NATO to convince them that Putin was serious about invading.
The pullout from Afghanistan was never going to be clean. And the plan Biden was following was one that Trump had made with the Taliban in 2020. According to the deal, the US had to be out by some date in 2021. Biden pulled the plug a big early, but it was within the time window to pull out.
What the US did not anticipate was how fast the Afghan forces and government would crumble when the Taliban started moving. In Vietnam the South Vietnamese hung in there for a year after the US pulled out, but in Afghanistan the government forces folded like a cheap suit in days. Because of the agreement the Taliban did not attack US forces as they retreated. The pull out became a humanitarian crisis because there were thousands of Afganis who wanted to escape.
The day after the pull out was over, Lawrence O'Donnell summed up the whole operation. "The US does not do retreats well." Whenever the US has had to pull out of a fight, it has never gone well. An army does well what it trains for, and that is not something the US Army trains for. Afghanistan went better than most.
The Biden administration has not been perfect in their response to Ukraine and Israel, but they have done a decent job. I'd give it a B-. The response to the situation in Israel has been hamstrung by the Democratic coalition being divided with some siding with each side and decrying any efforts to support the other side. Additionally money for aid has mostly been hung up in Congress since the war started.
The administration has been overly cautious about giving aid to Ukraine, but Putin keeps drawing lines in the sand and threatening to expand the war if that line is crossed. But when the line is crossed he doesn't act. Putin has been bluffing, but a miscalculation could trigger a much bigger conflict that would draw in the US. I understand the caution. If Russia wasn't a nuclear power Ukraine would probably have gotten whatever it wanted from the start of the war.
As far as waiting out Biden, Netanyahu would probably be waiting until 2029. Trump is fading in recent polling and as I've said before the polls have been weighted towards Republicans when you look at election results since 2022.
The deals Trump worked out involved selling out state secrets. Nothing has been proven for sure, but there is a possibility that Koshogi's movements were given to the Saudis so they could lure him into a trap. A number of the documents scooped up at Maro Lago may have been sold to other countries. Kushner got handed $2 billion by the Saudis and we don't know what he gave them in return.
The assassination of Solomeni probably has contributed to Iran's support of Russia and they are supporting Hamas, Hezbolah and other terrorist organizations in the region. They have stepped up their support since the assassination. It just took a while for it to show up on the ground.
A couple of high ranking Iranian officers were killed in an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Demascus.
Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of deadly airstrike on Syria consulate in deepening Middle East crisis
Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of deadly airstrike on Syria consulate in deepening Middle East crisis
Jigglypuff
Member
The USC student at the same meal had the same ignorance and questions. It's a problem across most schools. My own daughter experiences it at Santa Cruz. My son gets crap in high school. Antisemitism is rife.
The had both just graduated. The Harvard grad was headed to a tech company, and the USC grad went to, I kid you not, Council on Foreign Relations.
I had trained them well in high school, so they at least knew that they were missing a lot of the story. Brilliant kids, both.
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Tam
Well-Known Member
(This paywall New York Times article is free for 30 days)
OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
José Andrés: Let People Eat
April 3, 2024
"From Day 1, we have fed Israelis as well as Palestinians. Across Israel, we have served more than 1.75 million hot meals. We have fed families displaced by Hezbollah rockets in the north. We have fed grieving families from the south. We delivered meals to the hospitals where hostages were reunited with their families. We have called consistently, repeatedly and passionately for the release of all the hostages.
All the while, we have communicated extensively with Israeli military and civilian officials. At the same time, we have worked closely with community leaders in Gaza, as well as Arab nations in the region. There is no way to bring a ship full of food to Gaza without doing so.
That’s how we served more than 43 million meals in Gaza, preparing hot food in 68 community kitchens where Palestinians are feeding Palestinians.
...
Israel is better than the way this war is being waged. It is better than blocking food and medicine to civilians. It is better than killing aid workers who had coordinated their movements with the Israel Defense Forces."
OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
José Andrés: Let People Eat
April 3, 2024
"From Day 1, we have fed Israelis as well as Palestinians. Across Israel, we have served more than 1.75 million hot meals. We have fed families displaced by Hezbollah rockets in the north. We have fed grieving families from the south. We delivered meals to the hospitals where hostages were reunited with their families. We have called consistently, repeatedly and passionately for the release of all the hostages.
All the while, we have communicated extensively with Israeli military and civilian officials. At the same time, we have worked closely with community leaders in Gaza, as well as Arab nations in the region. There is no way to bring a ship full of food to Gaza without doing so.
That’s how we served more than 43 million meals in Gaza, preparing hot food in 68 community kitchens where Palestinians are feeding Palestinians.
...
Israel is better than the way this war is being waged. It is better than blocking food and medicine to civilians. It is better than killing aid workers who had coordinated their movements with the Israel Defense Forces."
Jigglypuff
Member
Tam
Well-Known Member
Israel prides itself on its precision in killing Hamas and minimizing civilian casualties:
Column: We don't know how Israel's military is using AI in Gaza, but we should
Given the myriad practical and ethical questions that continue to surround the technology, Israel should be pressed on how it’s deploying AI in its fight against Hamas.
www.latimes.com
"the IDF had begun “using artificial intelligence to select targets for air strikes and organize wartime logistics.”
Israeli officials said at the time that the IDF employed an AI recommendation system to choose targets for aerial bombardment, and another model that would then be used to quickly organize ensuing raids. The IDF calls this second system Fire Factory, and, according to Bloomberg, it “uses data about military-approved targets to calculate munition loads, prioritize and assign thousands of targets to aircraft and drones, and propose a schedule.”
If there's a choice to submit your travel route to the terrorist or free democratic Israel, there's no brainer that the World Central Kitchen has kept the IDF informed of their real-time traveling coordinates.
On 2/29/2024, if you have a choice to deliver food by the UN or by securing the dominant force in Gaza, it's a brainer to choose to be escorted by the IDF military tanks.
How did 118 people die in Gaza's Al-Rashid aid convoy violence?
NBC News used video filmed at the scene, IDF drone footage, and interviews with eyewitnesses and health workers to piece together how the deadly event unfolded.
www.nbcnews.com
"This convoy was unusual. Rather than being delivered by the United Nations or another international aid agency, it was arranged by Palestinian businessmen and escorted by Israeli tanks “to secure the humanitarian corridor,” according to IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari."
That secured escort with the IDF tanks resulted in 118 civilians dead and 700 injuries, mostly from gunshot wounds.
The IDF drone attack procedure is very sophisticated and very precise. It includes intelligence on the coordinates of where the targets are.
In these 2 incidents, the mistake of these aid convoys was that they revealed their coordinates in real time to Israelis, resulting in deadly consequences.
Jigglypuff
Member
This is not the end of the war. This is, "Hey, Hamas, you wanna run the place? Just try. Also, watch all these Rafah people head north. We'll be visiting soon."
This also puts Israel on a better footing if Iran or Hezbollah get frisky.
This also puts Israel on a better footing if Iran or Hezbollah get frisky.
Tam
Well-Known Member
True.
At the beginning of the year, the IDF withdrew its 36th Division but the destruction and deaths continued.
In January:
"The Israeli military says it has successfully destroyed Hamas as an organised fighting force in northern Gaza and has shifted its focus to the centre and south of the battered territory in a fresh stage of its war against the Palestinian militant group."
That meant the IDF has been in control of the Northern Gaza for the past 3 months and secured the area to kill humanitarian workers.
Troops withdrawals don't mean "drone" withdrawals. Professional IDF Drones can still chase after aid convoys.
Gaza is very small (Detroit size) so drones can be operated from Israel without the ground troops in Gaza with no range problem.
"Defense minister says pullout aims to prepare army for incursion into Rafah; Herzi Halevi says Israel is engaged in a ‘multi-front war,’ prepared for any attack from Iran"
By the way, Israeli TV 13 did a poll (use Google to translate as needed): 61% do not believe the war would destroy the terrorist organization in the end while 24% do. 15% undecided.
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Jigglypuff
Member
It's kind of funny isn't it? The Nazis never attacked America, never pulled a "Pearl Harbor". Yet we waged war against Germany and virtually obliterated the nation, flattened entire cities, to defeat them-and no one whined about America or the allies for doing so. Yet violent savages commit a genocide against the people of Israel for 3/4 of a century, Gazans committed some of the worst atrocities against Jews in history. Slaughtered 1200 innocent people, and kidnap 250 more. Yet when Israel finally responds, wages war against a cowardly enemy hiding behind their own women and children, did so with a lower civilian/combatant death rate than any army in history. and simple-minded idiots attack and denounce them. The amount of hate and anti-Semitism in this country is frankly shocking, Especially by people that hide their hate and anti-Semitism over a "concern" for the rapist and butchers of Hamas.Yes and shame on the Germans for not replacing Hitler, one way or another. They paid a steep price.
And shame on the Gazans for supporting and participating in the Hamas led rape jihad. They will pay a similar price.
If they were a decent people they would replace Hamas and educate their children, including their girls, on something other than how to commit rape jihad on Jews.
Poll: Hamas Remains Popular Among Palestinians
Palestinian support for Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza remains high, according to a Palestinian poll released on March 20. That support has increased since the Iran-backed terrorist...www.fdd.org
I'm hoping Americans are waking up to the threat that violent Islam poses to America, and around the world. An Islamic "convert" in my old home-town was attempting a terror attack in my former home-town, where he was going to slaughter Americans attending church, Fortunately the FBI shut him down-the day before the attack was to take place.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Wake up?
At the beginning of the war, many US leaders were solidly supporting Israel:
Pelosi Bizarrely Claims Russia Is Behind Pro-Palestine Protests
Her comments drew immediate backlash from the leading civil rights advocacy group for Muslims, who condemned them as unfounded and undemocratic.
www.thedailybeast.com
As the death toll grows, the support for Israel from US leaders starts to decline:
The Memo: Democratic dissent over Israel grows, deepening Biden’s dilemma
President Biden is facing deepening political trouble as criticism of Israel’s assault on Gaza grows more widespread and a possible invasion of Rafah looms. Discontent with Biden’s substantiv…
thehill.com
Even in war, no matter how much more powerful Israel is, how many it can kill, it still needs to comply with international laws, or it will lose the world's support:
Report: Israeli doctor says detained Palestinians are undergoing ‘routine’ amputations for handcuff injuries
Orignal Israeli newspaper source with paywall below:
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The Germans did attack the US in late 1941 and early 1942. Within a day or two of Pearl Harbor the Germans declared war on the United States so the u-boats which were on the way into US coastal waters could operate "legally". The US was sending a lot of oil to Britain. The tankers would load up in Texas or Louisiana and hug the US coastal waters around Florida and up the east coast to Nova Scotia where they would be formed into convoys and cross the Atlantic.
The British were getting much better at anti-submarine warfare, but the USN was not prepared for war. To make matters worse the US sent most of its destroyers based on the east coast out into the Atlantic to battle u-boats as soon as the war started. They were out there with the British trying to find u-boats when most of them were in US coastal waters sinking tankers. A couple of u-boats would sit on the surface off Miami and use the lights of the city to silhouette the tankers. They could set up their torpedo shots by watching the shadow of the tanker move in front of the lights.
There are a lot of tankers off the east coast that divers dove on today because the water is fairly shallow. There are also a couple of submarines that got caught or had accidents. A few submarines made their way into the Gulf of Mexico too.
Admiral Doenitz pulled back his subs in February 1942 because he believed the US was going to get wise to what was going on and move more anti-submarine assets to the coastal waters. Subs are very vulnerable in shallow water, so if the US had started patrolling the coastal waters, losses would have mounted quickly.
The campaign did have an effect. The US went on a crash program to build more tankers, but operations in the Pacific were still affected in early 1944 by a tanker shortage. Supply finally began to meet demand by mid-1944 when the largest naval operations started and fuel demand in Europe skyrocketed after D-Day in Europe.
When was the attempted attack on your former home town? Now that the US has ended most of it's military activity in Muslim countries (only a small force in Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS), attempts in the US has declined. When the FBI is looking for it, it is very effective at stopping organized attacks before they happen. The biggest danger is lone wolf attacks by people who are not talking about it to anyone before it happens.
Striking the United States when the intelligence services are watching is difficult. There is not much of a native population to hide amongst. The US Muslim population is only 1.1%. Canada has a little bit larger Muslim population (by percentage) at 4.9%, and Mexico's is essentially non-existent (5500 people total).
Israel's native Muslim population is 18% and the country is surrounded by dominant Muslim populations. There are a lot of places for radical Muslims to hide.
The problem is not inherent to the religion, it's the way a weaker force fights a strong modern army. Insurgencies can be very effective ways to defeat a force that would otherwise crush them in an open fight. The bulk of insurgent forces, and just about all the ones we ever hear about are Muslim because just about all of the contact between modern armies and weaker, native forces in the world have been in parts of the world which have a lot of Muslims for the last 50 years.
Since WW II there have been some insurgent fights in places that were not predominantly Muslim such as Vietnam or Malaysia, but while those fights are in living memory, they have faded into history. The technology of the 21st century has also enabled insurgents to extend the fight well beyond their local villages and cities. They have been using social media to spread their cause to western countries. Al Qaeda had a whole media wing to educate people on how to conduct attacks in western countries. And it did result in some people becoming radicalized in western countries and taking action, but the intelligence services shut most operations down before they happened.
Hamas and other Palestinian organizations have run a campaign on social media the last few years to win over non-Muslims in the west to their cause. They are not doing anything to encourage violence outside Israel/Palestine. Instead they are calling for democratic action to pressure governments to cut off Israel. The Oct 7 attack was planned to trigger a big response from Israel that would get this population already primed to be pro-Palestine screaming at their governments.
Netanyahu fell into their trap perfectly. Netanyahu desperately wants to cling onto power at all costs because he faces criminal charges once he's out of office and conducting a long war against Hamas is a perfect excuse for him. The IDF conducted an aggressive campaign against Hamas and because Hamas situated all their bases around sensitive civilian sites like hospitals, the Israelis have had to attack these civilian sites to get at Hamas and caused a lot of civilian casualties as well as destroyed what infrastructure Gaza had.
On top of this some idiots have proposed bulldozing Gaza and building luxury condos. Jared Kushner among them.
I think the risk of Muslim attacks on the US because of what's going on in Israel/Palestine are fairly low. Probably not completely zero, but low. Hamas wants Americans to believe that the Palestinians are the innocent victims of Israeli aggression and sponsoring any attacks on the US would destroy that narrative.
