It’s financially insane to not buy a Tesla Model 3

[Meco]

Here in Dallas, my electricity is a flat 8.9 cents, there are no addn'l fees for EVs. Gas prices are under $3 for premium.

You also have to consider your time. If you take 10 minutes to fill up a gasser x 52 weeks, you're standing there 9 hours a year waiting.

 

[andy92782]

I'm curious how the insurance between the BMW and M3 compare? There has been some talk about this in other threads and I'm curious if there is a significant difference in So Cal and if that would change any of these metrics? As for the Driving experience... I believe the M3 is now "the ultimate driving machine" IMHO!

Before I bought my Model 3 I got competitive insurance quotes for a 2018 Audi S4. The Audi and the Model 3 were within ~$50 of each other for an annual premium.

 

[andy92782]

I’m with you and mostly agree However, don’t forget residual value in your TCO calculations.

Pretty much this. Nobody knows what the residual value of a Model 3 will be three or four years from now. This is especially true when things like government tax incentives and OTA updates constantly affect the Model 3's overall value proposition. For example, Autopilot is now standard but it wasn't six months ago. If you bought the car six months ago, your car suffered a ~$3K residual value hit the moment Elon decided to make Autopilot a standard feature.

 

[SleeperService]

Pretty much this. Nobody knows what the residual value of a Model 3 will be three or four years from now. This is especially true when things like government tax incentives and OTA updates constantly affect the Model 3's overall value proposition. For example, Autopilot is now standard but it wasn't six months ago. If you bought the car six months ago, your car suffered a ~$3K residual value hit the moment Elon decided to make Autopilot a standard feature.

I bought mine assuming it's a ~10 year/200k miles car...just like my car before it. As such, I do not care what the "residual value" is, as I assume it to be $0.

 

[woodisgood]

I have an extremely frugal friend who just bought a new Corolla Hybrid (normally he only buys used). Much to my surprise, he revealed that he actually considered and test drove a Model 3. But in the end the hassle of installing a decent charging solution at home (he rents) and the "made-in-Japan" build quality of the Corolla Hybrid won out.

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

It's true that the economics blow other luxury cars away. Even against cheaper-to-maintain Japanese luxury cars, like Lexus and Acura, the savings are considerable.

Where it gets particularly amazing is when you do the TCO calculations against something like a brand new Civic. There are hoards of people that just don't consider TCO in their purchase decision. Every time I see a brand new Civic on road I wonder if the buyer even considered a Model 3 or thought to.

I've done the calculations vs the Civic using Toronto Canada gas prices. Break even (no change in gas prices/electricity) is at 13 years of driving ~20,000miles a year. The large capital cost of the Tesla is a hard sell vs the Japanese/Korean econoboxes.

Only if gas prices/taxes match those of Europe will EVs make sense vs econoboxes.

FSD and OTA Updates are the only user value proposition that can be argued to cover the capital cost angle.

 

[Need]

OP, you didn't mention the time you saved by NOT going to a gas station. If you drive 15,000 miles a year, you will probably gas up over 50x a year. Even if the gas station is on the way, it will probably take an extra 5 minutes each time and that's over 4 hours of your time. I drive 30k a year and my M3 saved me about 100 trips to the gas stations annually. And each time I buy a powerball and mega ticket for $4 and never won anything. So my car either saved me $400 in lotto tickets yearly, or cost me a few hundreds millions.....

 

[woodisgood]

I've done the calculations vs the Civic using Toronto Canada gas prices. Break even (no change in gas prices/electricity) is at 13 years of driving ~20,000miles a year. The large capital cost of the Tesla is a hard sell vs the Japanese/Korean econoboxes.

Only if gas prices/taxes match those of Europe will EVs make sense vs econoboxes.

FSD and OTA Updates are the only user value proposition that can be argued to cover the capital cost angle.

Of course it will vary depending on your region and how much you drive. Here in California, that breakeven point is a lot sooner. I agree in many parts of the US/Canada econobox shoppers will not cross-shop a Model 3. But in CA they certainly should and are.

 

[bmms8]

With SDGE, I recieved a $500 EVCC credit in 2018 for having an electric car. 15,000 customers received the credit. In 2017, 7000 people received a $200 credit. I believe the application period is over already for 2019 but I believe it will be around the same as 2018. That pretty much covers the monthly $16 fee for the whole year, and then some. Although it’s not a guarantee you will get it or if it lasts throughout your EV ownership, it’s still a great incentive. Also, first responders and teachers are also eligible for a $1k point of sale rebate, limited to the first 2000 applicants residing and working in SDGE serviced areas. We took advantage of that program with our Model 3.

Yes that program is great and i agree if you want to factor it in, i applied for both of my cars for 2019.

Note that this is also the last year of the credit. We also dont know if it'll be 200 or 500 or anything else.

All i meant to say is that its not a generalized comparison. I do like the perks like SDGE credit, HOV etc. I personally take advantage of all that, including solar to cover home charging but WE for the most part are not the general public. For example, my neighbor with a 3 didnt know about not charging too 100% daily lol

 

[TJtv]

OP, you didn't mention the time you saved by NOT going to a gas station. If you drive 15,000 miles a year, you will probably gas up over 50x a year. Even if the gas station is on the way, it will probably take an extra 5 minutes each time and that's over 4 hours of your time. I drive 30k a year and my M3 saved me about 100 trips to the gas stations annually. And each time I buy a powerball and mega ticket for $4 and never won anything. So my car either saved me $400 in lotto tickets yearly, or cost me a few hundreds millions.....

If you do that, then you should also factor in the time it takes to charge the EV. It's a much shorter time, but you do it much more often. I'd estimate 20 seconds per day, and 365 days per year. That works out to about 2 hours of time. Not as bad as spending 4hours at a gas station, but still non-negligible.

 

[bmms8]

If you do that, then you should also factor in the time it takes to charge the EV. It's a much shorter time, but you do it much more often. I'd estimate 20 seconds per day, and 365 days per year. That works out to about 2 hours of time. Not as bad as spending 4hours at a gas station, but still non-negligible.

This comparison is coming down to seconds lol.

Im waiting for someone to respond to you stating they ONLY charge at home haha

 

[OCR1]

So if you take 2 or 3 long distance trips per year and have to stop and supercharge you just lost the two hours you saved! Unless you play beach buggy racing while supercharging and then those hours don't count.

 

[jebinc]

So if you take 2 or 3 long distance trips per year and have to stop and supercharge you just lost the two hours you saved! Unless you play beach buggy racing while supercharging and then those hours don't count.

Or charge while during stopping anyway to eat or have coffee?

 

[lampcord]

I pay $0.12 / KwH here in Minnesota. I calculated that it is about 1/3 the cost of gas around here per mile. It was a factor, but honestly, I've wanted an EV since they first announced the Volt. I had a Volt reservation, a Leaf reservation and I test drove a Bolt about a year ago. I backed out of all 3 because the cars just didn't measure up to ICE counterparts.

Then I test drove a LR AWD Model 3 and they almost had to pry me out of the car with a crowbar. It's the best car I've ever driven. You can definitely make an economic case for it but I'd be lying if I said I bought it just to save money.

 

[OCR1]

I had no idea just how economical the Model 3 was until after I bought it and starting tracking my costs using TeslaFi. I would agree that comparing the Model 3 to any car with similar handling and acceleration makes the Model 3 the clear winner for efficiency.

Of course a used Prius or Civic may be more overall economical but clearly not in the same class so not really a useful comparison.

 

[KenC]

My last BMW was a 2001 330xi sport that I bought eurodelivery. BMW makes a great car, but I have no interest in buying another after getting my Model 3. Taking my BMW in for stealer service was always a pain and an argument if I wasn't ready to fork over a lot of money for some issue that should have been covered under warranty.

Someone asked about insurance? It was the same for me under Liberty Mutual.

 

[lampcord]

Someone asked about insurance? It was the same for me under Liberty Mutual.

Yeah my insurance went up $6 / month over the CX-5 I traded in. That really isn't much at all considering my Model 3 cost $15,000 more than the car it replaced. I'm with Progressive.

 

[dmurphy]

It gets even better ... not only do I save on the gas costs, but I also get to expense my work mileage to/from my customers.

At about 1,000 miles per month, that’s $580
in reimbursements at the current IRS rate.

My Model 3 is, basically, free. I’m driving it for less than what I’d pay out of pocket - fuel, insurance, maintenance, vehicle cost , everything - for a used Chevy Sonic.

 

[kdphan]

I bought it because it drove better than most ICE cars I've owned.

I had to sell my GT-R because it wouldn't make it up my steep driveway.
The only car that comes close to the enjoyment I had with the GT-R is the P3D. Both have crazy acceleration, but one does it quietly.

Not having to pump gas every 250 miles @ $60 definitely helps.

 

[Whitehawk]

I've done the calculations vs the Civic using Toronto Canada gas prices. Break even (no change in gas prices/electricity) is at 13 years of driving ~20,000miles a year. The large capital cost of the Tesla is a hard sell vs the Japanese/Korean econoboxes.

Only if gas prices/taxes match those of Europe will EVs make sense vs econoboxes.

FSD and OTA Updates are the only user value proposition that can be argued to cover the capital cost angle.

Your calculation places no value on the quality of the driving experience a model 3 offers...which is the reason many of us purchased the M3. That said, nothing wrong with the econoboxes - but if you’re just trying to save money, a 3 old Civic with 40,000 miles is you’re best bet. I am assuming you are not an owner...