It’s financially insane to not buy a Tesla Model 3

[SanDiegoM3]

I did an analysis on buying a new BMW versus a Model 3 long range AWD and it’s absolutely mind blowing how much money someone saves over 5 years. I didn’t make this to compare a Camry or Prius to a Tesla because they aren’t the same class by a long shot and i’m not talking used.

I own a AWD Tesla Model 3 that compares to a BMW Model 3 M340i XDrive.

• BMW MSRP $56k plus $10k to reach Tesla features
• Tesla MSRP $49,900 plus $1,500 for nicer wheels. No FSD upgrade to equal BMW. Tesla saves $14k off the bat.

MPG

• BMW mpg 26 combined and premium fuel
• Tesla miles per KWh = 4 mpkwh

Fuel cost

• California premium fuel = $4
• Cost per KWh at home = $.093 (advantageous pricing for EVs)

Fuel Cost per mile

• BMW =$.154
• Tesla = $.023

Cost per 15k miles

• BMW = $2,310 plus $90 for oil
• Tesla = $345
• Savings = $2,000 per year x 5 = $10k

BMW price plus fuel cost over Tesla = $24k over 5 years. That’s half the price of my Tesla

EV incentives:

• Tesla = $3,750 federal plus $2,500 state plus $500 from local utility

So by purchasing a Tesla over BMW I saved AT LEAST $31k over a BMW without the notorious BMW repair bills, in 5 years. That’s absolutely MIND BOGGLING.

Downsides? It takes 27 minutes at a non-shared supercharger to go from 5% to 80% or 15 miles to 248 miles.

How often are you driving very long distances away from home in SoCal where you can’t round trip back home assuming you started the day with 300 miles? (Probably not very often at all)

Tesla has built the best EV ever created with the model 3. Is it cheaper than a used Prius? Probably not, but I can go 0-60 in 4.4 seconds and beat high performance cars off the line and in turns.

I’m still blown away after owning it.

 

[jebinc]

Nice analysis!

 

[OCR1]

It makes me wonder why they don’t have even more demand given those numbers. My friend was spending more money just in gas for his Porsche Cayenne than his entire monthly payment plus electricity on his Model 3.

But not everyone gets cheap electricity and not everyone pays California gas prices. California has the perfect storm for being a no brainer to buy an EV over a gasoline powered car. And knowing that your car was built in your home state is a nice perk too.

Other members in different states have commented that their cost/KWH is closer to .25 and gas is in the $2.50/gallon range. Those numbers make it less compelling.

 

[jebinc]

Between 9 cents and 10.9 cents per kWh here in Seattle area.

 

[run-the-joules]

Not a consideration for me. Autopilot was what mattered.

 

[MXWing]

You have to look at the true market value of the BMW versus the MSRP.

Lease on lease is another set of calculations.

Tesla wins anyway but using TMV makes it more accurate.

 

[woodisgood]

It's true that the economics blow other luxury cars away. Even against cheaper-to-maintain Japanese luxury cars, like Lexus and Acura, the savings are considerable.

Where it gets particularly amazing is when you do the TCO calculations against something like a brand new Civic. There are hoards of people that just don't consider TCO in their purchase decision. Every time I see a brand new Civic on road I wonder if the buyer even considered a Model 3 or thought to.

 

[dethman]

Though I agree electricity cost is lower than gas I would say the 9 cents quoted is low.

Most California's pay more than that (I pay 13c with TOU on Sce and that's only at night. Up to 54c to charge at peak times.)

Also almost everyone always forgets charging losses which can be up to 20%. 1kwh in your battery is not equivalent to 1kwh from your meter.

 

[SanDiegoM3]

You have to look at the true market value of the BMW versus the MSRP.

Lease on lease is another set of calculations.

Tesla wins anyway but using TMV makes it more accurate.

True. Edmunds is showing a savings of about $4k, so instead of $31k over 5 years it’s $27k, plus any required maintenance, which is ridiculously priced.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

without the notorious BMW repair bills, in 5 years.

You haven't seen Tesla's notorious bills yet.

That said, depends what you compare it with. Tesla vs. BMW, sure Tesla makes way more sense financially speaking.
But BMW will give you more creature comforts, better repair network, while Tesla will give you AP & Electric driving.

You want to save money though, buy a Prius PHEV.

 

[bmms8]

Youre charging at $.09 because youre on an EV plan. if youre on TOU5 you should consider the $16 monthly fee, and the $.52 rates from 4-9 pm. It all adds up. Nice analysis but its terribly one sided..

 

[SanDiegoM3]

Though I agree electricity cost is lower than gas I would say the 9 cents quoted is low.

Most California's pay more than that (I pay 13c with TOU on Sce and that's only at night. Up to 54c to charge at peak times.)

Also almost everyone always forgets charging losses which can be up to 20%. 1kwh in your battery is not equivalent to 1kwh from your meter.

That’s true. At my electricity rate a 20% loss is about $70 per year or $350 over 5 years, still quite negligible.

 

[SanDiegoM3]

Youre charging at $.09 because youre on an EV plan. if youre on TOU5 you should consider the $16 monthly fee, and the $.52 rates from 4-9 pm. It all adds up. Nice analysis but its terribly one sided..

But I save money on my laundry, water heater, TV, and air conditioning after midnight and up until 2pm on weekends. The $16 more than covers typical usage, not just an EV.

Even just running a dishwasher during super off peak compared to off peak $.093 VS $.27 saves $50 per year if you run it 3 times per week. Now add laundry, water heater, weekend AC till 2pm, overnight and early morning heat, and other power vampires.

TOU-5 saves money regardless of an EV or not if you strategically use power by using timers on dishwasher and saving laundry for a weekend morning to afternoon. The EV is icing.

 

[Urbancowboy]

Here in AZ my cost per kWh overnight is between 5.75 and 6.14 cents depending on the time of year. Gas prices are low $3 for 87 and mid $3s for premium.

TCO is hard to beat.

 

[RZRZ]

• BMW = $2,310 plus $90 for oil

The BMW does include 3 years 36k of maintenance when its new and if you lease that changes things quite a bit. Generally people do leases on BMW and Mercedes which doesn't include maintenance.

The price difference and savings between BMW M3 and the Tesla M3P is even greater. The Tesla M3P crushes it to 60mph and beats it 100mph. If we had an autobahn that might make the BMW M3 slightly more desirable since it's quite a bit quicker to it's top speed.

The cheapest charging for me at home is .12 KWH although we have solar so it's probley cheaper.

You didn't mention the toll road discounts and carpool sticker eligibility!

 

[andy92782]

Funny, I did this analysis *after* I bought my Model 3. None of it really mattered once I got behind the wheel of the Tesla. The driving dynamics blew away the F30 M340i and Audi S4.

One thing about BMWs: Nobody actually buys them. They lease them for 3 years and 30K miles. A car like a loaded M340i would lease for $600ish a month + tax. Not cheap, but cheaper than its $60K MSRP might otherwise suggest. BMW also throws in basic maintenance at no charge for the first 3 years. Still, they drive like s*** compared to the Tesla. The Ultimate Driving Machine moniker died with the E90 as far as I'm concerned.

 

[bmms8]

But I save money on my laundry, water heater, TV, and air conditioning after midnight and up until 2pm on weekends. The $16 more than covers typical usage, not just an EV.

Even just running a dishwasher during super off peak compared to off peak $.093 VS $.27 saves $50 per year if you run it 3 times per week. Now add laundry, water heater, weekend AC till 2pm, overnight and early morning heat, and other power vampires.

TOU-5 saves money regardless of an EV or not if you strategically use power by using timers on dishwasher and saving laundry for a weekend morning to afternoon. The EV is icing.

Sure, i have TOU5 as well and two Teslas so i know what you mean. Im just merely stating that its more one sided comparatively to the average TM3 owner in socal.

 

[SanDiegoM3]

Funny, I did this analysis *after* I bought my Model 3. None of it really mattered once I got behind the wheel of the Tesla. The driving dynamics blew away the F30 M340i and Audi S4.

One thing about BMWs: Nobody actually buys them. They lease them for 3 years and 30K miles. A car like a loaded M340i would lease for $600ish a month + tax. Not cheap, but cheaper than its $60K MSRP might otherwise suggest. BMW also throws in basic maintenance at no charge for the first 3 years. Still, they drive like s*** compared to the Tesla. The Ultimate Driving Machine moniker died with the E90 as far as I'm concerned.

Plus $4k due at signing not including first payment. Or, plus $100/month.

 

[Sully151]

Well, the Federal Tax Credit gets cut in half again on Monday. That’s not going to help. I wonder how Tesla plans on dealing with this.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Well, the Federal Tax Credit gets cut in half again on Monday. That’s not going to help. I wonder how Tesla plans on dealing with this.

They will either lower the price, or add some features.
At least that's what they did when it got cut at the turn of the year.

Honestly, there is zero reason to rush into a 3 purchase for the tax credit reasons.

EVEN IF Tesla did nothing, in a couple of months you'll have inventory cars that'll give you the same discount.