JB Straubel- Model 3 will be mostly NEW technology

[AnOutsider]

I guess some people just can't be happy unless they are complaining.

I think that's unfair. I think the reality is, that most people are starting to get the gist when it comes to Tesla. They are almost always late and usually don't deliver exactly as promised. I think it's a good thing that expectations are being reeled in -- this way, we'll actually have less outrage if and when things do go south.

 

[ryanjm]

I'm at the point where I believe that *if* Tesla delivers any Model 3s in 2017, it'll be a half-dozen Founders cars in mid-December. I hope to get a Signature model, and should that happen I'm hoping to get it by my birthday in September 2018. Hopefully that's not *too* optimistic.

Back to the thread topic, though, it's reassuring to hear straight from JB that Model 3 has been in development for a few years already. Even though we pretty well assumed it, it's nice to hear it officially.

 

[hockeythug]

If you haven't watched the full video yet you should. Hell of a presentation.

 

[notAmeenPerson]

If you haven't watched the full video yet you should. Hell of a presentation.

There seems to be a real talent pipeline coming from the internship program. 600 interns this past summer is an impressive figure for a company of ~14,000. And more impressively they hire a third of them.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

May I admit at this point that I believe what JB says about anything way more than what Elon says (hypes)?!

Echoing ItsNotAboutTheMoney above, I love JB; he's really the lieutenant - as is Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX - that's helping the Tesla army win battle after battle, behind the scenes, while Elon hogs most of the limelight (which is not necessarily a bad thing as that keeps JB and Gwynne focused on execution).

 

[EVNow]

I guess some people just can't be happy unless they are complaining.

ad hominem : (of an argument or reaction) directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining

 

[wdolson]

May I admit at this point that I believe what JB says about anything way more than what Elon says (hypes)?!

Echoing ItsNotAboutTheMoney above, I love JB; he's really the lieutenant - as is Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX - that's helping the Tesla army win battle after battle, behind the scenes, while Elon hogs most of the limelight (which is not necessarily a bad thing as that keeps JB and Gwynne focused on execution).

Elon Musk has said he doesn't want to be CEO of two companies long term and will likely step down from Tesla once he feels the company it's mature. Some say this will likely be after the Model 3 launch. I suspect JB Straubel will be promoted to CEO at that point. He's already the second most visible person at Tesla.

 

[hockeythug]

Elon Musk has said he doesn't want to be CEO of two companies long term and will likely step down from Tesla once he feels the company it's mature. Some say this will likely be after the Model 3 launch. I suspect JB Straubel will be promoted to CEO at that point. He's already the second most visible person at Tesla.

Elon's remaining stock-based compensation milestones:

·	Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype;

·	Completion of the first Model 3 Production Vehicle;

·	Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;

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·	Aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles; and

·	Aggregate vehicle production of 300,000 vehicles.

This was a 10 year plan that began in 2012. Anything not done by then he forfeits.I believe he would rather spend more of his time at SpaceX and agree he would vacate the CEO title after the Model 3 is done.

 

[Canuck]

Seems to me he is laying down the argument for why it is a lot of hard work and thus can get late.

That was my thought exactly. But, as they say, better late than never. At least with Tesla we can see the gigafactory being built and we know they are actively working on getting the Model 3 out as soon as reasonably practicable. No other car maker has a long range EV at any price, but some have stated when they will, and even provided dates, while doing nothing concrete like we see with Tesla.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here are a few of the more interesting slides from the presentation thanks to http://insideevs.com/teslas-jb-straubel-people-tesla-now-working-model-3/

Tesla’s JB Straubel: Most People At Tesla Now Working On Model 3

With the Tesla Model X just out the door, all hands are now on deck for Tesla working on the ‘next big thing’ – the Tesla Model 3, according to the company’s Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel, while making a very detailed presentation on Tesla at the University of Nevada, Reno.

“So this vehicle (the Model 3) is what we are developing today. Most of the people inside of Tesla are no longer working on the S and the X, but they are hard at working designing and inventing all the technologies to go into the Model 3.”

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Tesla Product Roadmap (via Tesla Motors)

The Model 3 is billed as the first affordable vehicle for Tesla, and a big piece of the company’s mission to bring a compelling mass market electric car to market quickly. Mr. Straubel re-iterated his company’s position on building cars like the Model 3 during the talk:

“Tesla was not founded to make expensive cars, or to make luxury or high performance cars – this is a misconception that comes up all the time. And it is perhaps understandable based on the cars we built today – but it is not our mission. Our mission is make cars that everyone can afford, and to change the electric mobility equation, so that essentially every vehicle can have the opportunity to be electric.


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The CTO also stresses during the presentation that the Model 3 is unlike the Model X which shares a lot of its design with the Model S.

“…it (Model 3) is a completely new platform. Different technology base, and aimed at building hundreds of thousands per year instead of tens of thousands per year.”
​

During a question period after the seminar, Mr. Straubel is asked to expand further on the Model 3, and details the challenges a little further.
Question: The next generation Model 3 will be a bit of a new frontier for Tesla, given its expected market and price. How much of the car in terms of shared or new parts are expected to be new or different from the existing Model S and X?

“For better or worse, most of Model 3 has to be new. (On) X we were able to build on a lot of common components with S, but with Model 3 we can’t do that. So we are inventing a whole new platform for Model 3. It’s a new battery architecture, it’s a new motor technology. Brand new vehicle structure…so it is a lot of work.”
​

Tesla Illustrated Battery Volume Needed In 2020 For Model 3 If Everything Goes As Planned (via Tesla Motors)

Straubel goes on say that Tesla’s Fremont factory itself is more than capable of building the high volume of Model 3 cars planned by the company, as the ‘how-to’ behind volume automotive production is no mystery, but the problem is in sourcing the batteries to feed the assembly line for those cars.
A handy chart (above) shown by company aptly shows that Tesla will need more battery production in 2020 than was produced in all the world in 2013.
Hence the need for the Gigafactory.

On the Model 3 Rollout:
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has previously said/tweeted the ~$35,000, 200+ mile EV will be revealed in March ,and the company will begin taking deposits at the time. Production is anticipated to get underway before the end of 2017.



Tesla CEO Elon Musk Tweets Pricing And Reveal Timeline This Past September (via @elonmusk)

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon Musk has said he doesn't want to be CEO of two companies long term and will likely step down from Tesla once he feels the company it's mature. Some say this will likely be after the Model 3 launch. I suspect JB Straubel will be promoted to CEO at that point. He's already the second most visible person at Tesla.

I hope he is and isn't. JB would keep the vision, but I'd rather he be the eminence grise so he's not diverted from the technical area of strength. To reference what he said: follow your passion. I think he's in the best position he can be in.

 

[AlMc]

All I will add: If JB ever leaves TM I will sell all my TSLA asap.

 

[Grendal]

The Model 3 timeline is inexorably linked to the battery gigafactory. The battery gigafactory is currently ahead of schedule. That is no guarantee that the Model 3 will be on time but it does mean that the battery gigafactory will not be holding it back.

 

[vortexz]

What was the original gigafactory schedule ?
I've heard it will be ready by 2016 ! Way faster than model 3 is planned for mass production (2017)
So yeah, gigafactory won't be holding model 3 sales in this rate !

 

[wdolson]

What was the original gigafactory schedule ?
I've heard it will be ready by 2016 ! Way faster than model 3 is planned for mass production (2017)
So yeah, gigafactory won't be holding model 3 sales in this rate !

I believe the original plan was to start producing batteries in the 4th quarter of 2016. It now looks like 3rd quarter or possibly late 2nd quarter is possible. The Gigafactory will be ramping up over time. It won't be producing enough batteries for 500,000 cars immediately. They may be able to produce enough by the end of 2016 to fill 50% of Model S and X production and ramp up to cover all S and X production in 2017.

 

[vortexz]

Meaning the Model S/X price will also drop down for like 10% right ?

 

[Noneduck]

If you haven't watched the full video yet you should. Hell of a presentation.

I hope JB continues to hone his presentation skills. The pacing back and forth was tough to watch, as was his craning his neck to look at the slides behind him. There is a reason why TED talks have a monitor in front to prevent speakers from turning their backs to the audience.

 

[AnOutsider]

Meaning the Model S/X price will also drop down for like 10% right ?

They'd probably use the drop to help margins (and possibly offer larger sizes)

 

[AlMc]

They'd probably use the drop to help margins (and possibly offer larger sizes)

Agreed. TM will not drop prices on the flagship vehicles (S and X). They will either add things and not increase the cost (ex: sensors for future AP when people first starting noticing sensors on their cars) or just get up to 30+% margins to offset potential lower margins on the Model3.

 

[wdolson]

I hope JB continues to hone his presentation skills. The pacing back and forth was tough to watch, as was his craning his neck to look at the slides behind him. There is a reason why TED talks have a monitor in front to prevent speakers from turning their backs to the audience.

I think JB's presentation skills are better than Elon's at this point. It's painful to watch him speak sometimes.