In Q4 Tesla delivered 63,150 Model 3’s and 27,550 S/X’s. Total vehicles were 90,700.
In Q1 Tesla delivered 50,900 Model 3’s and 12,100 Model S/X’s. Total vehicles were 63,000.
That represents a 30.5% decrease in vehicles sold from Q4 to Q1.
Sure. Nearly all of it Model S/X.
Notice Q1 2019 also had a record # of vehicles IN TRANSIT due to logistics screw-ups in europe... almost 11,000 of em...and mostly Model 3s.
Add that to the Model 3 # and the delivered cars in Q4 and Q1 are nearly identical- impressive given the # of sales the tax credit likely pulled forward.
If Tesla were to keep pace with Q4 sales and deliver all 11,000 of the vehicles that were built but still in transit in Q1 that would put them at over 100,000 vehicles for Q2, which even Elon is not predicting.
Yes, we can blame the poor reception to the S/X models due to an anticipated refresh as a big portion of the decline. But the S/X vehicles sell at much higher price points than the 3, so any drop in unit sales of those models yields an even bigger drop in overall revenues and profits.
Ok...but that doesn't support the idea there's any demand problem on the
3
There absolutely was one on the S/X ahead of the refresh though.
The S/X models simply don’t represent a compelling value proposition to enough consumers at this point. The technology in the 3 is in many cases better than the S/X and the price point makes the 3 a much better value, as represented by the overwhelming number of 3 sales versus S/X.
errr...
Model S/X sales remained solid and steady the first 15 months the Model 3 was on the market.
They only, finally, dropped off Q1/2019 ahead of the refresh.
A refresh where they updated the suspension to be more advanced than the Model 3, and updated the primary motor to be the one used on the Model 3, and where they updated the range to be class-leading.
Now, is that "enough" to get demand back to how it was for years? Unknown.
Maybe buyers are always waiting on an interior refresh too? We probably won't have a better idea of that till June at least.
Tesla can’t survive alone on the Model 3.
Profit margin on the 3 is ~20%....they honestly should be able to.
But given the Y is likely to offer even higher margin and they absolutely have enough cash to get to launch I think they'll be ok.
The big issue right now is battery supply.
They've been saying for months Panasonic isn't producing enough at the gigafactory to even max out Model 3 production goals... let alone Model Y...let alone powerwalls they keep not installing because all the batteries are going to Model 3.
THAT is the big problem right now... not lack of demand.