Leaked email: Tesla Model 3 sales in Q2-19 might beat Q4-18

[M3BlueGeorgia]

There's a leaked internal Tesla email from Elon which appears to forecast Q2-19 sales of Model 3 will about match Q4-18 and might even beat them.
Some of the media outlets posting articles have checked with people inside of Tesla, and the email appears to be genuine.

Apparently Tesla is manufacturing between 900 and 1,000 a day, and Elon wants to consistently hit 1,000 a day instead of occasionally hitting that build rate.

Leaked Email Reveals Possible Record Tesla Deliveries In Q2 2019

 

[Dropzone_JD]

I can't wait for all the haters to eat some crow after Q2

 

[N.Y.R.]

I can't wait for all the haters to eat some crow after Q2

They'll just ignore the delivery number and point out the $ loss.

 

[JulienW]

Unfortunately if you are a short and your positions are due then you have likely made a "ton". Sad but that is the current position. Hopefully any new shorts that are this late in the game will get burned and my long positions will turn back positive. Also did my part and ordered a Model 3. Now Tesla just needs to deliver so I can be a positive statistic.

 

[Kmartyn]

There's a leaked internal Tesla email from Elon which appears to forecast Q2-19 sales of Model 3 will about match Q4-18 and might even beat them.
Some of the media outlets posting articles have checked with people inside of Tesla, and the email appears to be genuine.

Apparently Tesla is manufacturing between 900 and 1,000 a day, and Elon wants to consistently hit 1,000 a day instead of occasionally hitting that build rate.

Leaked Email Reveals Possible Record Tesla Deliveries In Q2 2019

I hope they make it, but it is a very optimistic target, considering they still have a constrained battery cell supply.

 

[OCR1]

The phasing out of the tax credit might help them to pull in a record number of orders in Q2. But then what happens in Q3? Demand fell off a cliff in Q1 because of the mad dash to get a car before the $7,500 credit phase down. What will they do to stimulate demand in Q3 once they sell to everyone who wanted the $3,750 remaining credit?

 

[Ev_guy]

Demand decrease in Q3 likely won't be as bad as Q1 because the credit decrease is less.

If they introduce insurance product and couple of FSD features, that may stimulate demand.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Demand decrease in Q3 likely won't be as bad as Q1 because the credit decrease is less.

If they introduce insurance product and couple of FSD features, that may stimulate demand.

Also the tax credit situation is very USA-centric and doesn't affect demand elsewhere in the world, and by Q3 they will also be shipping RHD cars into brand new markets.

And going from US7,500 to $3,750 is a more extreme jump than $3,750 to $1,825, though it will still impact USA sales in Q3.

Hopefully, from the experience of the logistical issues experienced in Q1, Tesla will be better at switching Q3 shipments to non-US markets.

 

[jjrandorin]

shouldnt this discussion be in the Tesla inc section rather than here? Anytime I see posts with "shorts" and taking about financials, thats where I feel that discussion should go.

 

[wtfuzz]

Also the tax credit situation is very USA-centric and doesn't affect demand elsewhere in the world, and by Q3 they will also be shipping RHD cars into brand new markets.

And going from US7,500 to $3,750 is a more extreme jump than $3,750 to $1,825, though it will still impact USA sales in Q3.

Hopefully, from the experience of the logistical issues experienced in Q1, Tesla will be better at switching Q3 shipments to non-US markets.

That’s right. Many of the restrictions on the sale of new vehicles start in the next 5-10 years and I think consumers are starting to think about getting ahead of the legislation.

Up here in BC, new gas vehicles can’t be sold past 2040, with percentage targets of 10% in 2025 and 30% in 2030. I see Tesla’s on the road here in droves. Today EVs already account for 3.5% of new vehicle purchased in the province, which is over 3 times the rate of the rest of Canada.

I can only imagine the market for Tesla is going to continue to grow, albeit not without challenges (fix your customer service already) and fierce competition.

 

[wtfuzz]

Also interesting that it’s been reported that in one week a Tesla store in Vancouver took in 800 orders. That’s 11% of Tesla’s entire global manufacturing capacity. In one city.

 

[Kuhz]

Hope this is the reverse in SP. I’m just glad I picked some up @202

 

[wtfuzz]

Hope this is the reverse in SP. I’m just glad I picked some up @202

I’ve been long on TSLA for 4 years. This week wiped my gains lol

 

[ebmcs03]

What will they do to stimulate demand in Q3 once they sell to everyone who wanted the $3,750 remaining credit?

They will obviously drop the price of the car by more than what the loss in federal tax credit is.

2018Q4 LR RWD $55k.
2019Q1 LR RWD $49.5k And AP included

History repeats itself.

 

[BEPA400]

considering they still have a constrained battery cell supply.

I hope this constrained battery supply gives them reason to fulfill the surge in SR+ demand in Canada! Build 50% more cars this way!

 

[BEPA400]

Also interesting that it’s been reported that in one week a Tesla store in Vancouver took in 800 orders. That’s 11% of Tesla’s entire global manufacturing capacity. In one city.

It’s not just a week. It’s been that rate for the whole month of May since the federal rebate was added. (Added to the existing provincial rebate) Deliveries in Vancouver are going to be huge in June this year.

 

[Knightshade]

The phasing out of the tax credit might help them to pull in a record number of orders in Q2. But then what happens in Q3? Demand fell off a cliff in Q1

People keep saying that, and yet they delivered 50,900 Model 3s (with another almost 11,000 cars in transit since they had issues shipping model 3s overseas for the first time)...added together that's around 61k in sales (though they can't officially count the in-transit cars till delivery)

Meanwhile Q4 they delivered... 63,150 Model 3s.

that's... a pretty tiny cliff. Especially with the tax incentive thing having doubtless pulled some Q1/19 sales into Q4/18.

And they've already said Q2 deliveries might well beat Q4/18s numbers (if they can keep production up- meaning it's a supply constraint, not a demand one)


S/X fell off a cliff (well, down from ~25k to about 16k), but in part because production was a lot lower ahead of making updates to the line for the model refresh with the new suspension and motor... and also depressed sales because people knew a refresh was coming.

 

[OCR1]

People keep saying that, and yet they delivered 50,900 Model 3s (with another almost 11,000 cars in transit since they had issues shipping model 3s overseas for the first time)...added together that's around 61k in sales (though they can't officially count the in-transit cars till delivery)

Meanwhile Q4 they delivered... 63,150 Model 3s.

that's... a pretty tiny cliff. Especially with the tax incentive thing having doubtless pulled some Q1/19 sales into Q4/18.

And they've already said Q2 deliveries might well beat Q4/18s numbers (if they can keep production up- meaning it's a supply constraint, not a demand one)


S/X fell off a cliff (well, down from ~25k to about 16k), but in part because production was a lot lower ahead of making updates to the line for the model refresh with the new suspension and motor... and also depressed sales because people knew a refresh was coming.

In Q4 Tesla delivered 63,150 Model 3’s and 27,550 S/X’s. Total vehicles were 90,700.

In Q1 Tesla delivered 50,900 Model 3’s and 12,100 Model S/X’s. Total vehicles were 63,000.

That represents a 30.5% decrease in vehicles sold from Q4 to Q1.

If Tesla were to keep pace with Q4 sales and deliver all 11,000 of the vehicles that were built but still in transit in Q1 that would put them at over 100,000 vehicles for Q2, which even Elon is not predicting.

Yes, we can blame the poor reception to the S/X models due to an anticipated refresh as a big portion of the decline. But the S/X vehicles sell at much higher price points than the 3, so any drop in unit sales of those models yields an even bigger drop in overall revenues and profits.

The S/X models simply don’t represent a compelling value proposition to enough consumers at this point. The technology in the 3 is in many cases better than the S/X and the price point makes the 3 a much better value, as represented by the overwhelming number of 3 sales versus S/X. Tesla can’t survive alone on the Model 3. They need all of their vehicles to be selling well. Hopefully a refresh is imminent and will attract buyers who have been sitting out waiting for something new to come along.

 

[Silicon Desert]

While I hope the information becomes fact, I never trust leaked information either. Sometimes it is done on purpose knowing it will be leaked. Hope that is not the case here. Leaked company info from any company in my view is about as credible as a politician saying they are making changes for my benefit

 

[Knightshade]

In Q4 Tesla delivered 63,150 Model 3’s and 27,550 S/X’s. Total vehicles were 90,700.

In Q1 Tesla delivered 50,900 Model 3’s and 12,100 Model S/X’s. Total vehicles were 63,000.

That represents a 30.5% decrease in vehicles sold from Q4 to Q1.

Sure. Nearly all of it Model S/X.

Notice Q1 2019 also had a record # of vehicles IN TRANSIT due to logistics screw-ups in europe... almost 11,000 of em...and mostly Model 3s.

Add that to the Model 3 # and the delivered cars in Q4 and Q1 are nearly identical- impressive given the # of sales the tax credit likely pulled forward.

If Tesla were to keep pace with Q4 sales and deliver all 11,000 of the vehicles that were built but still in transit in Q1 that would put them at over 100,000 vehicles for Q2, which even Elon is not predicting.

Yes, we can blame the poor reception to the S/X models due to an anticipated refresh as a big portion of the decline. But the S/X vehicles sell at much higher price points than the 3, so any drop in unit sales of those models yields an even bigger drop in overall revenues and profits.

Ok...but that doesn't support the idea there's any demand problem on the 3

There absolutely was one on the S/X ahead of the refresh though.

The S/X models simply don’t represent a compelling value proposition to enough consumers at this point. The technology in the 3 is in many cases better than the S/X and the price point makes the 3 a much better value, as represented by the overwhelming number of 3 sales versus S/X.

errr...


Model S/X sales remained solid and steady the first 15 months the Model 3 was on the market.

They only, finally, dropped off Q1/2019 ahead of the refresh.

A refresh where they updated the suspension to be more advanced than the Model 3, and updated the primary motor to be the one used on the Model 3, and where they updated the range to be class-leading.

Now, is that "enough" to get demand back to how it was for years? Unknown.

Maybe buyers are always waiting on an interior refresh too? We probably won't have a better idea of that till June at least.

Tesla can’t survive alone on the Model 3.

Profit margin on the 3 is ~20%....they honestly should be able to.

But given the Y is likely to offer even higher margin and they absolutely have enough cash to get to launch I think they'll be ok.


The big issue right now is battery supply.

They've been saying for months Panasonic isn't producing enough at the gigafactory to even max out Model 3 production goals... let alone Model Y...let alone powerwalls they keep not installing because all the batteries are going to Model 3.

THAT is the big problem right now... not lack of demand.