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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
How so? DC charging at 150kW+ is done using CCS or Chademo plugs outside of China.
Tesla (still) has no CCS adapter available - and the clunky Chademo adapter (for the current slower Chademo standard) sells for $450....
Model S/X CHAdeMO Adapter
But let‘s not get lost in details, this thread is about fundamentals:
For years, Tesla bulls and analysts claimed that Tesla’s SC network was unique (a key Tesla moat).
That feature will be gone by ~2020 in key car markets.
Tesla‘s SC network will be the slowest compared to upgraded CCS / Chademo by then - unless they upgrade their entire SC network as well.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I have an actual soul. You decide which I meant.
Tesla‘s favorite “200 miles” range number is totally arbitrary.
Even so, there are several EVs at close to that range or above it on sale today (not counting vehicles only sold in China). Listing the most important launches only:
- Renault ZOE
- Nissan Leaf (soon with a ~225 mile version, 150 miles at the moment)
- GM Bolt
And coming within months:
- Jaguar i-Pace
- Hyundai Kona / Kia Stonic / Kia Niro
- Audi e-tron
- Mercedes EQC
...
After 2020 the list is getting so long that I don’t even bother listing all the car models (several people did so, see eg. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086652-tesla-competition-watch-143-electric-car-models-market-2022 ). Bottom line:
100-150 EV car models by 2025 or even before.
See for example BMW’s model list chart I posted earlier. BMW alone will offer more BEV models than Tesla in a few years - not even counting their upcoming long-range PHEVs.
And (as I mentioned before) the international Model3 roll-out is so slow that many of these competitors will be in showrooms before the Model3 (or later the Model Y) is on sale in these countries.
None of the perceived Tesla moats (battery supply volume, high-speed charging network, EV range...) will remain standing around 2020.
Tesla investors who ignore these developments over the next 24 months will face reality by 2020 - the stock price will likely anticipate these competitive pressures before then.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
Traditional automakers building charging stations makes "Elon time" look fast
In Nov 2016 , 5 major automakers said they want to build 400 charging stations capable of up to 350kW in Europe
5 major automakers join forces to deploy 400 ultra-fast (350 kW) charging stations for electric vehicles in Europe
In Nov 2017, the same joint venture again announced the same plan, 1st to open 20 charge stations in 2017, and 100 in 2018, and also now have a name for their network calling it IONITY (yay)
Carmakers plan 400 Europe car charging stations by 2020
But by March of 2018 they've only released a concept
IONITY Reveals 350-kW Ultra-Fast Charging Station Design Concepts - HybridCars.com
In the mean time Tesla added 350 SC stations in 2017.
I would bet that Tesla upgrades SC to 350kW before IONITY gets to 100 stations. Take the bet?
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Some do. Most are evil. AI will come for them first. Seriously. Legal AI is very advanced. My experience with lawyers, and this is an advice.. the only ones who profit from a legal dispute are the lawyers. Find a way to resolve your issues without lawyers if you can.
I am certainly looking forward to see hundreds of new models, each with a yearly production number -- ...drumroll... -- also in the hundreds!
If you think these big players can beat the ball out of the park and reach 5+ digit yearly production numbers for hundreds of 200+mile EV models, then please show me where they are building all the battery gigafactories to produce the batteries for them!
he doesn’t think that. tftf already indicated upthread that he’s not willing to say Tesla will be below 50% global long range EV market share (excluding vehicles by Chinese mfgs sold in China) before 2025. for context, top ICE market share, Toyota and VW, each about 12-13%.
sounds like tftf is well aware of Tesla’s enormously wide opening for growth for a staggeringly long period of time.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
- Renault ZOE
Really. This only sells in any quantity in France. Not available in the US. Range less than 200 miles.
- Nissan Leaf
If and when the new version comes out it will be a real contender (except for charging)
- GM Bolt
Could be good but they aren't making many and no charging infrastructure
As for all of the "coming real soon" cars... we'll wait and see. They have no volume production and no charging infrastructure.
I believe that Elon welcomes more electric cars and I personally would like to see more choices but the options are not good.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Latest Tweet from Elon:
Tesla Goes Bankrupt
Palo Alto, California, April 1, 2018 -- Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can't believe it.
Elon was found passed out against a Tesla Model 3, surrounded by "Teslaquilla" bottles, the tracks of dried tears still visible on his cheeks.
This is not a forward-looking statement, because, obviously, what's the point?
Happy New Month! pic.twitter.com/YcouvFz6Y1
Elon Musk
✔@elonmusk
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980566101124722688
1h
Replying to @elonmusk
There are many chapters of bankruptcy and, as critics so rightly pointed out, Tesla has them *all*, including Chapter 14 and a half (the worst one).
Elon Musk
✔@elonmusk
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980566116614291456
Elon was found passed out against a Tesla Model 3, surrounded by "Teslaquilla" bottles, the tracks of dried tears still visible on his cheeks.
This is not a forward-looking statement, because, obviously, what's the point?
Happy New Month! pic.twitter.com/YcouvFz6Y1
3:02 PM - Apr 1, 2018
Twitter Ads info and privacy
In following tweets, Musk suggested that he could be releasing the ‘Teslaquilla’.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Only 143... Let's see, carry the 3.. add the 2.. plus... Ahh screw it.. 2020 is going to be magical. Can't wait. It's finally going to be the future. It's like all the auto manufactures have been saving up all their innovation for this magical year. You would think that they would have done something sooner, but no.. 2020 is the year they all chose. I mean it used to be 2019, but it really really is going to be 2020.
So like one day, BMW and Daimler and Audi and Porsche had like 80% market share on large luxury sedans. And then, this upstart electric vehicle company came around and soon after took their lunch money. Now, the four of them don't have as much market share combined in the US as this upstart EV company. Yet, they think it's best to wait until 2020 to really show us how it's done. I mean they need to burn some rubber to make sure they have really good traction.
I think like 5% of Tesla sales are to companies trying to benchmark their cars or reverse engineer them. What will Tesla do without those sales in 2020 and beyond. I'm really worried. This is me worried face
.
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Sudre
Active Member
The good news is the writing will be on the wall in 2019 when we see around150 battery factories being built. That will give me 2 years at minimum to sell my TSLA.
ROTFLMAO
ROTFLMAO
Reciprocity
Active Member
Here is the best example I can think of to explain Tesla's competitive edge.
Why does Intel always have the fastest chips? It's because they are so far ahead, they hold back some advances until competition steps out of line. The Tesla analogy is 2170 in model S/X. As soon as Porsche or Daimler announce something real, you will see how quickly Tesla surpasses. Remember when the FF91 was the fastest EV for like an hour and then Tesla released a software update. Good times..
Why can't Intel.. the most advanced chip maker on the planet, make a better mobile chip then Apple? I mean, seriously. Should be easy, I mean it's not a high performance server chip. Why can't Intel make a better gpu then Nvidia. Should be simple, it's not even a general purpose chip. It does one thing.. graphics. It should be easy for the company that makes chips for the fastest super computers on the planet.
This is why Daimler and gm cant make a competitive EV. They will always be a step and a half behind Tesla. As soon as they think they have caught up, Tesla will release something they had for a year.
Why does Intel always have the fastest chips? It's because they are so far ahead, they hold back some advances until competition steps out of line. The Tesla analogy is 2170 in model S/X. As soon as Porsche or Daimler announce something real, you will see how quickly Tesla surpasses. Remember when the FF91 was the fastest EV for like an hour and then Tesla released a software update. Good times..
Why can't Intel.. the most advanced chip maker on the planet, make a better mobile chip then Apple? I mean, seriously. Should be easy, I mean it's not a high performance server chip. Why can't Intel make a better gpu then Nvidia. Should be simple, it's not even a general purpose chip. It does one thing.. graphics. It should be easy for the company that makes chips for the fastest super computers on the planet.
This is why Daimler and gm cant make a competitive EV. They will always be a step and a half behind Tesla. As soon as they think they have caught up, Tesla will release something they had for a year.
Technically the Bolt was the first 200+ mile, affordable BEV, though the Model 3 is the first affordable, 200+ mile BEV which will be mass produced. The Model 3 will be the first non-Chinese BEV to be truly mass produced period.
There are two reasons the pure electric range of PHEVs is poor and most BEVs have poor range:
1) Battery supplies are not up to making large numbers of long range BEVs and batteries are expensive.
2) ICE makers don't want to make BEVs that compete with their bread and butter line up.
The ICE lobby has successfully pressured the Trump administration to eliminate the CAFE standards so they can build more gas guzzling SUVs and muscle cars and they can put a lot of their plans for more electrified cars on the shelf. Those same companies lobby the CARB states hard too. I would expect some federal attention trying to get CARB eliminated. (It will probably fail, but I expect the attempt.)
To make this a bit clearer I'll exaggerate the numbers a little. Say a company called Legacy Motors claims they will electrify 100 models by 2025 and lump PHEV and BEV together in the same number, claiming 10% of its fleet will be electrified by that date. It sounds impressive until you run the numbers and find they will only make on average 1000 cars of each type a year (total of 200K cars) and there is no information available on how many of those will be PHEV and how many BEV, and you start to get a picture of BMWs claims.
BMW makes about 2 million cars a year. They claim 25% of their fleet will be PHEV or BEV by 2025 with 12 models being BEV and 13 PHEV. That's 500K cars a year. The details they are being quiet about are how many of each of these models do they plan to build and what will be the electric range of these cars? They could easily make 150K PHEV cars with 25-50 mile electric range, and most of the BEVs with short range with only a handful of true long range BEVs.
It is possible they will make more long range BEVs than that, but where is the battery supply? They have secured a 10 year supply of cobalt and lithium, which is a good sign, but they are not making their own batteries and I haven't seen any signs they are building any capacity to make their own batteries.
Though as I said in an earlier post, the Europeans are showing more signs of being serious about mass producing electric vehicles than the Japanese or Americans.
There is some interest in some parts of Europe to build a fast charging CCS network, but plans in the US are spotty. California is encouraging it, but there is little government support beyond that.
Most car companies are hoping the aftermarket will take care of expanding the fast charging network, but the problem is a chicken and egg one. People are reluctant to buy an EV for road trips if they can't find fast chargers where they want to go. And charging companies are reluctant to build highway chargers in remote places that aren't going to bring in much income until there are a lot of cars on the road that will use them.
Fast chargers also require more expansive electrical installations than a slow charger. Most CCS stations today are fairly low power because most CCS vehicles have small batteries, but also those stations are fairly cheap to put into existing electrical infrastructure than a high speed station with a dedicated, large transformer.
By 2025, the high speed CCS network in at least part of Europe may be well built and able to support a large number of BEVs on the highway, but without car companies and/or governments getting behind an effort to build them in the US, they won't get built.
My SO is an attorney other lawyers consult about ethics issues. She takes ethics very seriously. Maybe she only attracts the more ethical attorneys into her orbit, but almost all of her colleagues I have met seem to take ethics seriously too, though some have cut the occasional corner.
There are definitely bad attorneys out there, but I would say the financial business world has more bad actors. The financial world has a lot of people who are just out to make as many fast bucks as they can and who cares who gets hurt in the process. As long as they stay out of prison, it's all good in their book.
It won’t take until 2025.
At least two major (and many smaller ones such as Fastned etc.) networks will be operational in Europe by around 2020 already.
Ionity (mentioned before) is just one of them:
First look at Ionity ‘ultra-fast’ charging network map of planned stations
The second project is Ultra-E with many of the same companies involved:
New ‘ultra-fast 350 kW charging stations’ for EVs to be deployed in Europe in partnership with Audi, BMW and others
The third one is Mega-E:
New High Power Charging network planned for Europe’s Metropolitan areas | Fortum
As for the US, you must have missed Electrify America’s recent announcements (?).
The first phase (build-out until the summer of 2019) of EA will cover a lot of places already:
Electrify America Chooses Greenlots To Charge EVs Every 70 Miles On Highways Across USA | CleanTechnica
VW Electrify America plan for electric-car charging across U.S. released
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Proving that Tesla can use other chargers, as I said. There is no CCS adapter yet because there aren't enough chargers to bother with.
It was and still is. I previously explained why it will always give Tesla an advantage.
There is a huge difference between the Tesla SC network and the other fast chargers (Chademo, CCS):
+ The Tesla SC network is planned / designed to allow long range travel, i.e. it provides travel-corridors and area coverage and redundancy of stalls at each location
- other fast chargers (Chademo, CCS) are placed ad-hoc, opportunistically and often without any redundancy
I did several long road-trips in my Tesla in my 3.5 years of ownership including a ~10000km round trip from Toronto to the Grand Canyon and several ski-trips in the thousand mile range. I know the SC network can be used conveniently: I always found available chargers in working order when I arrived and had places to eat, spend time right around the site while my car was charging.
I also tried to use some Chademo chargers with my iMiev and seen / experienced the difference: when you arrive to the location and the single charger is out of order. Not to mention the locations: there are 2 Chademo chargers in Mississauga just a few blocks from each other at Mitsubishi and Nissan HQ buildings, neither of them have any facility in walking distance where you can eat or spend your charging time with anything useful. Then you have no other Chademo chargers within the range of the iMiev, so there is no "network" to travel anywhere.
+ The Tesla SC network is planned / designed to allow long range travel, i.e. it provides travel-corridors and area coverage and redundancy of stalls at each location
- other fast chargers (Chademo, CCS) are placed ad-hoc, opportunistically and often without any redundancy
I did several long road-trips in my Tesla in my 3.5 years of ownership including a ~10000km round trip from Toronto to the Grand Canyon and several ski-trips in the thousand mile range. I know the SC network can be used conveniently: I always found available chargers in working order when I arrived and had places to eat, spend time right around the site while my car was charging.
I also tried to use some Chademo chargers with my iMiev and seen / experienced the difference: when you arrive to the location and the single charger is out of order. Not to mention the locations: there are 2 Chademo chargers in Mississauga just a few blocks from each other at Mitsubishi and Nissan HQ buildings, neither of them have any facility in walking distance where you can eat or spend your charging time with anything useful. Then you have no other Chademo chargers within the range of the iMiev, so there is no "network" to travel anywhere.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
1) CAFE standards are not being eliminated. They will be reduced from where the Obama administration set them.
2) ~90% if the reason legacy automakers sell BEVs and PHEVs in the US is to meet CARB ZEV requirements and 10% to meet CAFE standards. The Trump administration may try to eliminate CARB's waiver to implement their own requirements arguing that they are so strict they in effect override Federal standards rendering them meaningless and rending Federalsupremacy/authority meaningless. If not CARB has set a minimum of 22.5% of cars sold by each "large" automaker must be zero emission in 2025.
2) To fulfill its Dieselgate settlement obligations VW must spend $2.5B on zero emission vehicle refueling $800M of which must be spent in California. Some monies may end up going to H20 refueling stations but the bulk will go to CCS/CHAdeMO stations. If VW does not do it, it reopens the case to potentially larger fines and criminal prosecution. It has been estimated that when VW spends this money Electrify America charging network will be slightly larger than the Supercharger Network today. Plus the other Networks like EVgo,Chargepoint, and Blink will probably still be around.
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