Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[StapleGun]

Been thinking. Will street parking issues slow adoption rate for gen3? Assuming ppl who buy gen 3 usually don't have garages. Building out a charge port on every street parking spot will cost too much money. Has this analysis been done before?

Out of 132 million housing units, about 82 million are houses, and another 18 million are 4 units or less which would usually have some access to charging. A quick glance at this chart shows that in more developed European nations, somewhere around 70% of the population lives in either an attached, or detached home. So even if no apartments or streets build any parking infrastructure, about 70% of people in the US will not have an issue charging.

Apartment charging (non-street parking) is actually pretty easy to solve. Residents will begin to ask about charging and some apartments will start to provide it in special spots, probably at a monthly fee just like carports. EV charging will be listed with other amenities, and the amount of spots should grow pretty consistently with demand.

Street parking is a tougher problem. I think progressive cities will lead the way by building out public stations similar to free public wifi many cities offer. It's harder to make the economics work for this scenario though so I'm not sure what the long-term solution will look like. Battery swapping could be a more feasible approach for a large city, and perhaps a higher demand and lower area to cover would work better for swapping stations anyways.

Lastly, charging at work could solve this for a big chunk of people. It will never be the end-all solution though because people simply won't choose their job based on whether the employer offers charging stations. And there will always be jobs that cannot offer charging.

 

[sleepyhead]

I have several friends that are not buying the model S cause they dont have a garage, its pretty common all over europe to park on the street.

I understand that this is limiting demand, but my point was that the demand from those that do have garages is already going to outpace the supply for years to come. Those without garages are irrelevant until Tesla becomes demand constrained, which imo may take a decade or longer.

Remember that Elon said that initially Gen 3 production will be relatively small and only get up to 400k with time. If they produce 100k units in year 1, the demand will probably be a few times larger.

 

[ckessel]

I think there are some things that are cultural and simply isn't going to be able to address. Some places are predominantly street parking or parking structure and it's going to change a cultural level push from those types of places to bring about support for EV charging. As StapleGun said, residents will start to demand it, either at the apartment level or something at a city/county/state level with passing a levy to fund such things.

The sad reality is that portion of the market will be largely unavailable until then. Tesla needs the other manufacturers to jump on board and make EVs common place and that's going to just take time.

 

[Causalien]

I think we have very different target markets in mind. What is the target audience that will satisfy 100k demand per year and have a house to call their own? When I began this exercise, I had a specific image in my mind on who will buy Gen 3. Mainly younger than 30 yr olds who lives in some type of shared living arrangement that cannot justify a Model S either because of its size or cost. Young graduates on Gen 3 release date and graduates after the 2008 recession. We have observed a trend of this generation staying home with parents more because of the scarcity of stable jobs. You can live in a house with a garage, but have no access to the garage. The house owners are the target market of Model S, the tenants inside are target market of Gen 3 mostly. Who gets to charge? I know I'd never let my tenant priority of the garage over me.

In LA, what I am seeing is that houses are rented out to about 5~6 people at a time. Condo parking is costly and good luck getting them to install a charger unless you sit on the board. So street parking will most likely be the answer. Or some type of designated parking space at the back of smaller condos. These are the type of people that I think is the target market for Gen 3. Is this what you guys have in mind as well?

Converting the street lamps to chargeport outlets still requires money and build out. But it'll be interesting to explore how much this will cost for feasibility reasons.

I want to buy a Gen 3 as soon as it is announced, but the first thing that comes to mind is, I park on the street of a big sprawling city, where do I charge? Why not remove this worry even before the release.

 

[AudubonB]

Norse and you other Norwegians:

Do you know of a way to determine whether the Norwegian Permanent Fund (that's what we call ours here in Alaska, anyway) is invested in Tesla, and if so, how many shares are they reporting owning?

 

[Benz]

Speaking of long-term, Elon Musk already has mentioned that "All future cars will have Supercharger Capability", but does that mean that these "All future cars with Supercharger Capability" will also be allowed to charge for free forever at the Supercharger stations (just like the owners of a Model S and a Model X)?

Two more quotes from Elon Musk are:
"Something that's unique about the Supercharger is that it's free, it's not just free now, it's free forever.""By buying a Tesla you essentially have free long distance travel throughout the country for ever."

I think that the answer to this question is pretty important for the sale of all future Tesla EV models.

Anybody who would like to share his/her thoughts on this matter?

 

[Norse]

Norse and you other Norwegians:

Do you know of a way to determine whether the Norwegian Permanent Fund (that's what we call ours here in Alaska, anyway) is invested in Tesla, and if so, how many shares are they reporting owning?

Our oilfund have invested. I can see if I can find some info on it.
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Norway owned 0.44% in Tesla at 31th December 2012. http://www.nbim.no/no/Investeringer/beholdninger/beholdninger-flash/
However I could not find em here. http://whalewisdom.com/stock/tsla

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Speaking of long-term, Elon Musk already has mentioned that "All future cars will have Supercharger Capability", but does that mean that these "All future cars with Supercharger Capability" will also be allowed to charge for free forever at the Supercharger stations (just like the owners of a Model S and a Model X)?

Two more quotes from Elon Musk are:
"Something that's unique about the Supercharger is that it's free, it's not just free now, it's free forever.""By buying a Tesla you essentially have free long distance travel throughout the country for ever."

I think that the answer to this question is pretty important for the sale of all future Tesla EV models.

Anybody who would like to share his/her thoughts on this matter?

Not all model S can use the supercharger for free. But if you pay 2000$ then you can use it unlimited, if you buy a P85 its priced in. I Guess this will work out well in the future aswell. Cause for every 1000 car they sell, they have 2 million $ to create superchargers from. So this will create more profit for them.

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When it comes to streetcharging. Look at this: http://www.miljo.oslo.kommune.no/luftkvalitet/prosjekter_og_tiltak/article142778-39102.html
I Guess you cant read it but you can see the Pictures and use Google translate. Anyways this was from 2011, And Oslo had 400 free chargers out in Public parking lots. Yes the parking in it self is free aswell.

Some People are shouting out the model S is getting to good benefits, but in my town the pollution in the Winter is so high that it is a serious issue, and they have talked about only letting People drive gas cars every other day. Recently a big study showed that the chances of getting cancer from gas and diesel car are higher than what we have thought. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanonc/article/PIIS1470-2045(13)70279-1/fulltext

A state secretary defended Tesla, saying that they want to give Tesla the benefit cause that will strengthen Tesla in making cheaper car for the masses: http://www.vg.no/bil-og-motor/artikkel.php?artid=10126186

 

[JRP3]

These are the type of people that I think is the target market for Gen 3. Is this what you guys have in mind as well?

The target market is anyone who wants a real EV but doesn't want the expense or larger size of the S/X. There are millions of those people with garages, or at least access to charging. I don't have a garage but I did stick an outlet on the side of my house. I think you're too narrow focused on what you see around you.

I want to buy a Gen 3 as soon as it is announced, but the first thing that comes to mind is, I park on the street of a big sprawling city, where do I charge? Why not remove this worry even before the release.

Because they will have enough demand without solving all charging issues ahead of time.

Speaking of long-term, Elon Musk already has mentioned that "All future cars will have Supercharger Capability", but does that mean that these "All future cars with Supercharger Capability" will also be allowed to charge for free forever at the Supercharger stations (just like the owners of a Model S and a Model X)?

I hope not, I think it will be too much of a burden on the company if the volume of free charging increases too much. Free encourages people who may not really need it to use it anyway.

Two more quotes from Elon Musk are:
"Something that's unique about the Supercharger is that it's free, it's not just free now, it's free forever.""By buying a Tesla you essentially have free long distance travel throughout the country for ever."

I think that the answer to this question is pretty important for the sale of all future Tesla EV models.

If Tesla did not offer free charging, would that cause you to not buy the car? It wouldn't matter to me one bit.

 

[Causalien]

JRP I thought you have a Model S.

 

[JRP3]

No, I'm waiting for a G3, driving my own conversion in the meantime.

 

[Causalien]

oh wow. I had you completely pictured as a Model S target market. Could you shed light on why you choose Gen 3 over Model S?

 

[DaveT]

I think we have very different target markets in mind. What is the target audience that will satisfy 100k demand per year and have a house to call their own? When I began this exercise, I had a specific image in my mind on who will buy Gen 3. Mainly younger than 30 yr olds who lives in some type of shared living arrangement that cannot justify a Model S either because of its size or cost. Young graduates on Gen 3 release date and graduates after the 2008 recession. We have observed a trend of this generation staying home with parents more because of the scarcity of stable jobs. You can live in a house with a garage, but have no access to the garage. The house owners are the target market of Model S, the tenants inside are target market of Gen 3 mostly. Who gets to charge? I know I'd never let my tenant priority of the garage over me.

In LA, what I am seeing is that houses are rented out to about 5~6 people at a time. Condo parking is costly and good luck getting them to install a charger unless you sit on the board. So street parking will most likely be the answer. Or some type of designated parking space at the back of smaller condos. These are the type of people that I think is the target market for Gen 3. Is this what you guys have in mind as well?

Converting the street lamps to chargeport outlets still requires money and build out. But it'll be interesting to explore how much this will cost for feasibility reasons.

I want to buy a Gen 3 as soon as it is announced, but the first thing that comes to mind is, I park on the street of a big sprawling city, where do I charge? Why not remove this worry even before the release.

I see Gen3's initial target market in the U.S. as folks in houses w/garages (or condos/apts with covered parking/charging). Those who can only park on the streets in urban settings will likely be laggards in adopting EVs.

There tens of millions of people in the U.S. with garages or at least covered parking in condos/apts. Definitely no shortage of market size for the time being.

 

[30seconds]

I'm probably waiting for gen3 too. Size of S/X just not appealing to me. Plus I'm imagining what a P+ version would be like with substantially less weight.

 

[gregincal]

I think we have very different target markets in mind. What is the target audience that will satisfy 100k demand per year and have a house to call their own? When I began this exercise, I had a specific image in my mind on who will buy Gen 3. Mainly younger than 30 yr olds who lives in some type of shared living arrangement that cannot justify a Model S either because of its size or cost. Young graduates on Gen 3 release date and graduates after the 2008 recession. We have observed a trend of this generation staying home with parents more because of the scarcity of stable jobs. You can live in a house with a garage, but have no access to the garage. The house owners are the target market of Model S, the tenants inside are target market of Gen 3 mostly. Who gets to charge? I know I'd never let my tenant priority of the garage over me.

In LA, what I am seeing is that houses are rented out to about 5~6 people at a time. Condo parking is costly and good luck getting them to install a charger unless you sit on the board. So street parking will most likely be the answer. Or some type of designated parking space at the back of smaller condos. These are the type of people that I think is the target market for Gen 3. Is this what you guys have in mind as well?

Converting the street lamps to chargeport outlets still requires money and build out. But it'll be interesting to explore how much this will cost for feasibility reasons.

I want to buy a Gen 3 as soon as it is announced, but the first thing that comes to mind is, I park on the street of a big sprawling city, where do I charge? Why not remove this worry even before the release.

Yes, we definitely have different target markets in mind. I don't see the people you are talking about buying many 35-50k cars (remember that $35,000 will be the very base model, and most cars will be quite a bit more expensive than that). The Model S is targeted at a very high end audience, the vast majority of people who own houses can't afford it. The Gen III is aimed at middle class homeowners (although even then the more affluent ones), not the younger audience you describe.

 

[JoNoSaisQuoi]

On a test drive a few weeks ago we discussed Superchargingwith the Tesla representative. He saidthe when you plug into the Supercharger your credentials are passed into theirsystem.
This will be very useful because in future cars, when youplug into the Supercharger, your debit card will automatically be charged forwhatever amount it costs to charge the car.
I have no idea if this is actually Tesla’s plan but it does makesome sense to me.

 

[Causalien]

Yes, we definitely have different target markets in mind. I don't see the people you are talking about buying many 35-50k cars (remember that $35,000 will be the very base model, and most cars will be quite a bit more expensive than that). The Model S is targeted at a very high end audience, the vast majority of people who own houses can't afford it. The Gen III is aimed at middle class homeowners (although even then the more affluent ones), not the younger audience you describe.

Point taken. I think I might have overestimated the wealth of different classes of people.

 

[JRP3]

oh wow. I had you completely pictured as a Model S target market. Could you shed light on why you choose Gen 3 over Model S?

Sure, a number of reasons, foremost is that though I could have afforded the 60kWh S, one of the reasons I could is because I'd never make such a purchase, it just wouldn't be a wise decision. It's also a larger vehicle than I want, and because of that not as efficient a vehicle as I would want, so even if it were much cheaper I probably wouldn't get it. I'm not really a normal consumer though, and I have a very specific set of criteria that an EV needs to meet before I buy one. I'm hoping the G3 will have the right combination of efficiency, looks, performance, and value, before I pull the trigger. Nissan could take my money if they build the ESFlow and it turned out to be a good car before Tesla releases the G3 but it doesn't appear as if that's going to happen.

 

[Jhall118]

I'm probably waiting for gen3 too. Size of S/X just not appealing to me. Plus I'm imagining what a P+ version would be like with substantially less weight.

I would be really surprised if there is a performance Gen3 that is faster than the S. Even if it were possible for technical reasons, why would they make a car that competes with the model S, a performance sedan?

 

[ckessel]

I would be really surprised if there is a performance Gen3 that is faster than the S. Even if it were possible for technical reasons, why would they make a car that competes with the model S, a performance sedan?

Because Elon wants to make the best car possible and crush the competition. Gen3 is going to be a lighter, smaller car, so it's not unreasonable to think they can make a great performance version. As for competing with the S on performance, if the underlying tech is the same then the S could get an update around then as well to add in the updated tech. If the performance gain is largely due to lower weight, well, there's a reason sports cars are generally faster than sedans.

 

[brianman]

I would be really surprised if there is a performance Gen3 that is faster than the S. Even if it were possible for technical reasons, why would they make a car that competes with the model S, a performance sedan?

You might want to refine your question...
Next Gen Roadster should obliterate any performance bar set by Model S. If not, they've done the Roadster wrong.