Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Norse]

MarvinatOrz, thanks for taking the time translate. If you are still bored perhaps you can tackle some of the comments of the article (or even approx. response of either pro or con Tesla). Most interesting in the article is that the Model S is purchased by Princes and Cab Drivers and Parking Enforcers alike. This debunks the myth the Model S is only for the 1%ers. People that would not normally purchase such an expensive car are finding ways to justify the expense (i.e saving gas, oil and maintenance charges, saving time in Green HOV lanes, saving the environment, cool factor, etc.).
We seem to be stuck in the $160 - $170/sp for now until another major positive catalyst drives higher. Events would include next quarterly meeting and final design of the Model X (should be by February 2014 to make it to the major auto shows and allow production for the Fall '14. Avoid the daily noise. Steady stays the course. Enjoy the ride into our future. Best.

Why my friends havent got the Tesla is cause they dont have a garage. All ppl With work and who drives alot can afford a model S.

- - - Updated - - -

Also: http://www.solarroadways.com/intro.shtml This is somewhat OT, but imagen what this can do to EV. If you have roads runnings the grid on renewable Power, than everybody can have a car! Also the charging issiue is gone. The roads are even smart, and might be the way to og for driverless cars. Look thru thoose videoes!

 

[marvinat0rz]

Most interesting in the article is that the Model S is purchased by Princes and Cab Drivers and Parking Enforcers alike. This debunks the myth the Model S is only for the 1%ers. People that would not normally purchase such an expensive car are finding ways to justify the expense (i.e saving gas, oil and maintenance charges, saving time in Green HOV lanes, saving the environment, cool factor, etc.).

You have a point. But just as a word of caution, I'd be very careful using experiences from Norway to generalize towards the expected response to Tesla in the rest of the world. Norway is an outlier because the average income is high and income inequality is a lot smaller than any other rich nation in the world. A parking enforcer can actually make enough money to relatively comfortably buy a Model S on credit. This will not be the case in e.g. Germany, so we should look how Tesla is received there before generalizing too much. The difference in price between a Model S and a sedan that's expensive but not extravagant is also much smaller in Norway, since it literally has no taxes. Whereas the tax portion of the price of a mid-to-high-end gasoline car will usually be around 50% of the purchase price. My prediction is that Norway will be the country with the highest portion of "regular" people that decide to buy a Model S. Results from here will not directly generalize to other countries, although the opportunities you pointed out will be present to some degree.


I can't see a comment field on the story right now, but Tesla's reception in Norway has been very good. People are drooling over the car. Electrics are very popular, and most people are surprised to see an electric car that is feature-competitive with gasoline cars. Same as in the US.

 

[AudubonB]

...Norway is an outlier because the average income is high and income inequality is a lot smaller than any other rich nation in the world. A parking enforcer can actually make enough money to relatively comfortably buy a Model S on credit. This will not be the case in e.g. Germany, so we should look how Tesla is received there before generalizing too much. The difference in price between a Model S and a sedan that's expensive but not extravagant is also much smaller in Norway, since it literally has no taxes. Whereas the tax portion of the price of a mid-to-high-end gasoline car will usually be around 50% of the purchase price. My prediction is that Norway will be the country with the highest portion of "regular" people that decide to buy a Model S. Results from here will not directly generalize to other countries, although the opportunities you pointed out will be present to some degree.

I believe your points present excellent reasons as to why TM chose Norway as its beachhead to the European market. Very interesting!

 

[marvinat0rz]

I believe your points present excellent reasons as to why TM chose Norway as its beachhead to the European market. Very interesting!

I agree, and I'm very impressed with Tesla's market research here. I could probably have told them this, but I'm a Norwegian and I've never been to California.

 

[neroden]

Why my friends havent got the Tesla is cause they dont have a garage. All ppl With work and who drives alot can afford a model S.

Ah, the wonders of Norway, with high equality of income and massive taxes on gas cars.

Interesting to see that the barrier to adoption there is lack of garages (and presumably lack of private driveways too?). The problem of getting electrical outlets for the parking spaces used by apartment-dwellers is an interesting one and I'm not quite sure how it's going to be solved; it seems that it would mostly be a bureaucratic problem, which should be solvable.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Tesla is getting lots of attention in Norway. Front page of two of the biggest online newspapers today. Don't have time to translate this time. Aftenposten points out that the car is half the price of comparable ICE cars. Many car enthusiasts buying, but also families.

http://bil.aftenposten.no/bil/--Du-far-en-sportsbil-til-halv-pris-50741.html

Reportedly, test drives are fully booked for three weeks at the Bergen store. A "three-digit" number of cars were sold before the store opened, although many of these are probably already shipped and counted in the known order queue.

One very interesting takeaway: The newspaper interviewed two dealership owners (Land Rover, BMW, Audi, Mercedes). The dealership owners were dismissive, but noted that the number of people asking about Tesla was very large. However, it didn't make sense for them to actually import and sell Tesla due to Tesla's pricing philosophy. Apparently, there are some back-channel negotiations affecting all the other big brands, which make those brands a lot more lucrative for dealerships to sell. The conclusion here is that Tesla has made a very good choice by selling directly from their own stores. If you read between the lines you'll see that they have cut out the middleman, and the reason dealership owners are dismissive is that they won't get a cut they're happy with. This means greater margins for Tesla, which is a Good Thing.

He also expected the sale of electrics to "take off" (even compared with Norway's existing situation in electrics)? and that the government would change its import regulations. The current tax regulations are expected to remain until at least 2018, though. After that, things are more uncertain. The result could be greater taxes on Tesla in the long run, but hopefully by then cheaper models will be available.

The comments are thus far overwhelmingly positive, criticizing the dealership owners for dismissive comments and saying that the car is excellent.

 

[Norse]

Ah, the wonders of Norway, with high equality of income and massive taxes on gas cars.

Interesting to see that the barrier to adoption there is lack of garages (and presumably lack of private driveways too?). The problem of getting electrical outlets for the parking spaces used by apartment-dwellers is an interesting one and I'm not quite sure how it's going to be solved; it seems that it would mostly be a bureaucratic problem, which should be solvable.

We live in the mountains and the fjords you know. People in the cities often got maximum one garage, but very often none.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The August EV Sales in Norway:

Total: 700 units (6% of the market)
Leaf: 448 units
MS: 185 units

Best Selling ICE: VW Golf 514 Units

Given the Norway's 6 operating Super Chargers, it seems that MS has a real chance to match Leaf's sales i.e around 5,000 cars/year.

Just to give an additional perspective on the relative cost of MS, I was told that 60KWh is about the price of VW Passat TDI, while providing (much) better performance, (much) lower operating costs, (much) better technology content. Forget luxury brands (M5 is 3x more expensive than comparable MS), the only reason why anybody would choose VW Passat over MS 60 is lack of information.

http://insideevs.com/august-sets-el...record-for-norway-6-of-market-grabbed-by-evs/

 

[austinEV]

We live in the mountains and the fjords you know. People in the cities often got maximum one garage, but very often none.

I immediately imagined a house tucked into the back of a fjord, only wide enough for a single car garage. Slartibartfast would be proud.

 

[DonPedro]

I immediately imagined a house tucked into the back of a fjord, only wide enough for a single car garage. Slartibartfast would be proud.

Except his planet is closed for business and in hibernation, awaiting the end of the galactic recession.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla is getting lots of attention in Norway. Front page of two of the biggest online newspapers today. Don't have time to translate this time. Aftenposten points out that the car is half the price of comparable ICE cars. Many car enthusiasts buying, but also families.

http://bil.aftenposten.no/bil/--Du-far-en-sportsbil-til-halv-pris-50741.html

Reportedly, test drives are fully booked for three weeks at the Bergen store. A "three-digit" number of cars were sold before the store opened, although many of these are probably already shipped and counted in the known order queue.

One very interesting takeaway: The newspaper interviewed two dealership owners (Land Rover, BMW, Audi, Mercedes). The dealership owners were dismissive, but noted that the number of people asking about Tesla was very large. However, it didn't make sense for them to actually import and sell Tesla due to Tesla's pricing philosophy. Apparently, there are some back-channel negotiations affecting all the other big brands, which make those brands a lot more lucrative for dealerships to sell. The conclusion here is that Tesla has made a very good choice by selling directly from their own stores. If you read between the lines you'll see that they have cut out the middleman, and the reason dealership owners are dismissive is that they won't get a cut they're happy with. This means greater margins for Tesla, which is a Good Thing.

He also expected the sale of electrics to "take off" (even compared with Norway's existing situation in electrics)? and that the government would change its import regulations. The current tax regulations are expected to remain until at least 2018, though. After that, things are more uncertain. The result could be greater taxes on Tesla in the long run, but hopefully by then cheaper models will be available.

The comments are thus far overwhelmingly positive, criticizing the dealership owners for dismissive comments and saying that the car is excellent.

I was wondering if anyone can shed light on the consequences of the election victory of the 'conservative' party in Norway. Will the fiscal treatment of electric cars, which has been so beneficial for Model S-sales, change under a new government?

 

[Norse]

They will not do to much With the benefits until 2017. All parties in Norway have agreed. However they might set the price Down on hybrids or gas cars. It`s 4 parties that wants to get together in goverment so we wont know what they will do yet.

BUT: You heard it on TMC first. Tesla Model S was the most sold(registered) car last week in Norway.
Tesla Model S nr. 1 i Norge! - Motor - Hegnar Online

You now have to wait about half a year for your car, even thou Tesla makes 250 cars for Europe each week. In Bergen, the waiting list for a testdrive is 3-4 weeks now.

The Norwegian Krone has also strengthened against dollar lately. 1.5% just today. This will obviously give Tesla more dollars in since we pay fixed in the Norwegian Krone.

 

[DonPedro]

...and, as an encore, we've alerted the world to such existential mysteries as the sound of the fox and the meaning of Stonehenge.

 

[Bonken]

...and, as an encore, we've alerted the world to such existential mysteries as the sound of the fox and the meaning of stonehenge.

hahaha i freaking love ylvis!!

 

[sleepyhead]

They will not do to much With the benefits until 2017. All parties in Norway have agreed. However they might set the price Down on hybrids or gas cars. It`s 4 parties that wants to get together in goverment so we wont know what they will do yet.

BUT: You heard it on TMC first. Tesla Model S was the most sold(registered) car last week in Norway.
Tesla Model S nr. 1 i Norge! - Motor - Hegnar Online

You now have to wait about half a year for your car, even thou Tesla makes 250 cars for Europe each week. In Bergen, the waiting list for a testdrive is 3-4 weeks now.

The Norwegian Krone has also strengthened against dollar lately. 1.5% just today. This will obviously give Tesla more dollars in since we pay fixed in the Norwegian Krone.

Thanks for the information Norse. Keep it coming.

How does a currency go up 1.5% in a day?

 

[marvinat0rz]

Speculators are trying to predict the future direction of Norway's central bank. There is a large amount of uncertainty regarding interest rates for the next few years, since there are strong forces pulling in both directions. (Down: Export companies are struggling. Inflation is too low. Up: Real estate prices are high, salaries are growing very fast, oil sector investments are massive). And new numbers just came out indicating that interest rates might increase sooner than expected.

In addition, there has been very strong demand for the NOK the last few years, due to the financial crisis and the "flight to safety". Hence the amount of NOK available to trade is small. Norway's currency is obviously orders of magnitude smaller in volume than the USD.

 

[Causalien]

Been thinking. Will street parking issues slow adoption rate for gen3? Assuming ppl who buy gen 3 usually don't have garages. Building out a charge port on every street parking spot will cost too much money. Has this analysis been done before?

 

[Johann Koeber]

Not neccesarily. Every street lamp has electricity. Would not be too expensive to include an outlet. Metering and payment are another subject.

 

[sleepyhead]

Been thinking. Will street parking issues slow adoption rate for gen3? Assuming ppl who buy gen 3 usually don't have garages. Building out a charge port on every street parking spot will cost too much money. Has this analysis been done before?

Your assumption is incorrect, people who buy gen 3 will have garages. And there is more than enough demand from those who have garages to make gen 3 a success. Demand will outpace supply for years to come.

 

[Norse]

Your assumption is incorrect, people who buy gen 3 will have garages. And there is more than enough demand from those who have garages to make gen 3 a success. Demand will outpace supply for years to come.

I have several friends that are not buying the model S cause they dont have a garage, its pretty common all over europe to park on the street.