Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

[Robert.Boston]

There are a lot of BMW 3s and Mercedes Cs street-parked here in Boston neighborhoods. Seems pretty solidly in the Gen3 target market. Still, I agree that Tesla will remain supply-constrained for the next decade, so not being able to address 100% of the market isn't important for a while.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Still, I agree that Tesla will remain supply-constrained for the next decade, so not being able to address 100% of the market isn't important for a while.

Sorry Robert, maybe that I missed something. Why Tesla will remain supply-constrained for the next decade?
Is it because of lack of lithium?

 

[JRP3]

No, it will because demand will outstrip their factory production capacity for a while.

 

[gregincal]

There are a lot of BMW 3s and Mercedes Cs street-parked here in Boston neighborhoods. Seems pretty solidly in the Gen3 target market. Still, I agree that Tesla will remain supply-constrained for the next decade, so not being able to address 100% of the market isn't important for a while.

I'd say Boston is unusual in that way (although there are probably parts of other big cities that fit the same profile, just not to the same extent as Boston). As you say, they don't need to address 100% of the market.

 

[neroden]

The target market is anyone who wants a real EV but doesn't want the expense or larger size of the S/X. There are millions of those people with garages, or at least access to charging.

I would have been where JRP3 was, except that I was not willing to buy a new gasoline car while I waited, so I wasn't able to wait. And I had the cash. Most people are more patient about this -- and don't have the cash.

I think we have very different target markets in mind. What is the target audience that will satisfy 100k demand per year and have a house to call their own? When I began this exercise, I had a specific image in my mind on who will buy Gen 3. Mainly younger than 30 yr olds who lives in some type of shared living arrangement that cannot justify a Model S either because of its size or cost. Young graduates on Gen 3 release date and graduates after the 2008 recession. We have observed a trend of this generation staying home with parents more because of the scarcity of stable jobs. You can live in a house with a garage, but have no access to the garage. The house owners are the target market of Model S, the tenants inside are target market of Gen 3 mostly. Who gets to charge? I know I'd never let my tenant priority of the garage over me.

I know quite a few people in this situation and they are loaded down with student loans so badly that they can't really afford cars at all. Those who have to have cars are getting the cheapest cars they can get, and still they can't really afford them. This is US-specific, obviously...

In LA, what I am seeing is that houses are rented out to about 5~6 people at a time. Condo parking is costly and good luck getting them to install a charger unless you sit on the board. So street parking will most likely be the answer. Or some type of designated parking space at the back of smaller condos. These are the type of people that I think is the target market for Gen 3.

The slightly more well-to-do people in shared living situations like this might *share* a Gen3 (among the 6 of them), but are unlikely to be buying one each.

My personal view of the market for Gen3 starts with well-to-do Europeans for whom the Model S is physically too big to drive through the narrow streets and park in the constrained parking spaces. There's lots of them. The US market, I'm a little less clear on, since it depends on how low Tesla can make the price, which depends on the price of batteries at the time.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

My personal view of the market for Gen3 starts with well-to-do Europeans for whom the Model S is physically too big to drive through the narrow streets and park in the constrained parking spaces. There's lots of them. The US market, I'm a little less clear on, since it depends on how low Tesla can make the price, which depends on the price of batteries at the time.

I think it would be unwise to ignore Japan. This site has a Japanese member for whom parking the Model S will be an exercise in precision because of the space constraints of parking lots. Gen 3 will open up the Japanese market considerably. The Japanese are nationalistic, but (a) they like advanced technology and (b) Tesla's using Japanese cell technology at the core of their vehicle.

 

[arg]

There are solutions to street parking - see this attempt: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/government-funding-for-residential-on-street-charging-for-plug-in-vehicles-a-guide-for-members-of-the-public

(I've no idea how that particular scheme is going, like most Government schemes it's probably a bureaucratic nightmare and flawed in the details, but at least it's a start...)

 

[kevin99]

Priceline is one of the best performing stock over 5-10 years

I have been continuously surprised by how well PCLN has been performing over the years. Their "name your own price" sounds like a gimmick in the beginning. However it does seems the differentiator that is keeping their growth engine going.

Top stocks of the past 10 years - investing winners - MSN Money

Here I put together a few household names in the mix
- AAPL, GOOG, CRM and our dear TSLA:

I know it is hard to picture before such a epic run starts. But seeing how PCLN performs, I have to feel a bit optimistic about TSLA hitting the $1,000 mark before the end of decade 2020.

Of course with the price target and time frame so far out, I am just day dreaming... That is what "Long term" is for, right?

 

[Norse]

Posted this on the short term, but I Guess its more a long term thing. Atleast if Tesla build a factory or do a co-op in China. http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release...policy-for-new-energy-vehicles-20130919-00322

Atleast it shows that China is for EV! People can say what they want about climate change, tax-benefits and so on. Still local goverments dont want pollution..

 

[AudubonB]

Single point datum:

I received my order confirmation back in May, but needed to postpone Build until I knew to where to have the car sent. Got that taken care of in mid-August, with a delivery date around Oct 6-10.

Just got off the phone with TM, and was told that because of production backlog, the earliest I would have delivery is Oct 11-16, and can expect it to be more toward the end part than earlier. I certainly can live with that, and to me it is another suggestion that the DD and SS continue to shift ever outwards and upwards....

 

[clmason]

Today share price touched $180. I assume there are many of us who purchased at $18 near the IPO.
Congrats to all who now have (nearly) 10X appreciation.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Today share price touched $180. I assume there are many of us who purchased at $18 near the IPO.
Congrats to all who now have (nearly) 10X appreciation.

I hit 5 bagger status today!

 

[ggr]

Today share price touched $180. I assume there are many of us who purchased at $18 near the IPO.
Congrats to all who now have (nearly) 10X appreciation.

Some of us were IN on the IPO. So, yeah... very happy!

 

[clmason]

Some of us were IN on the IPO. So, yeah... very happy!

$17 IPO, right? Hope you got a boat load of shares!

OT- Elon didn't have a job for you? I saw the video, you asked at Teslive, right?

 

[Norse]

At a Norwegian Tesla Conference yesterday the Tesla spokesperson said that GEN3 definently will come in 2016.

 

[DaveT]

At a Norwegian Tesla Conference yesterday the Tesla spokesperson said that GEN3 definently will come in 2016.

Hi Norse, do you have a link to that?

 

[Citizen-T]

Today share price touched $180. I assume there are many of us who purchased at $18 near the IPO.
Congrats to all who now have (nearly) 10X appreciation.

I need to get to $190 to claim 1,000%.

 

[sleepyhead]

I need to get to $190 to claim 1,000%.

That is still only a 900% return for you if it reaches $190 :tongue:

 

[Citizen-T]

That is still only a 900% return for you if it reaches $190 :tongue:

Haha. Yes, *only* a 900% gain.

 

[Norse]

Hi Norse, do you have a link to that?

It was one of the bosses at Tesla in Norway, he said it out loud at a Tesla/Stock Conference. And he seemed to be well informed, he also recomended all to buy more Stock, and he said that he had loads himself