ModelS8794
Member
One area where this frame of reference fits with Model S is its ability to improve via software updates, thereby iterating at a much faster pace than traditional auto platforms.
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Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass investing TSLA
One area where this frame of reference fits with Model S is its ability to improve via software updates, thereby iterating at a much faster pace than traditional auto platforms.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Again, that's true, but doesn't get you a compounding effect.
Look I totally agree that Tesla has a lot of tech company DNA and therefore it should be able to grow much faster and in a more lean way than traditional auto-makers. I'm totally on board with that. I'm just saying that invoking The Law of Accelerating Returns is taking it a little too far.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's possible that better and faster computer modeling may lead to faster improvements in battery chemistry, so Tesla might benefit somewhat from the effect.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
ModelS8794
Member
Ah sorry, you are correct. I believe Tesla has attributes of tech company in it's ability to iterate quickly through more software and less hardware in their product, and in the culture of the company's leadership and employees. In terms of accelerating return a la kurzweil, i guess we are probably on that path for auto-makers due to CAD and eventually 3D-printing for R&D and eventually manufacturing as well. but I admittedly have a hard time applying Kurzweil to the question, I'm not even sure what we'd want to see as evidence of accelerating returns in auto manufacturing. certainly not cars that are 1000x faster and 1000x smaller for the same constant-$ cost, LOL.
To bring this back to investing question, I think the comparison to tech vs industrial co is relevant not in the degree Tesla products follow the Law of Accelerating return, but in the degree that tesla can drive much more rapid development, the degree that software and software-enabled R&D (read: cheaper) overshadows (more expensive) hard-asset CapX investment, and as a result, the ability to produce very high margins and high ROIC once development is complete and products can be produced and sold. These are the attributes that I believe lead to a growing tech firms seemingly unjustifiable valuations that turn out in retrospect to be much more reasonable than they seemed at time=0.
cheers.
Will Tesla Alone Double Global Demand For Its Battery Cells? (Page 3)
I'd waved off some earlier statements about Tesla creating a battery plant as outside their core mission, but after a rumor mentioned in the short term forum about another offering and reading this article about how Tesla alone is going to swamp the current worldwide 18650 production, I have to wonder if it would be in Tesla's interest to grab a billion or two and create it's own battery plant. Perhaps in partnership with Panasonic or some such so Tesla isn't reinventing the necessary research.
I'd waved off some earlier statements about Tesla creating a battery plant as outside their core mission, but after a rumor mentioned in the short term forum about another offering and reading this article about how Tesla alone is going to swamp the current worldwide 18650 production, I have to wonder if it would be in Tesla's interest to grab a billion or two and create it's own battery plant. Perhaps in partnership with Panasonic or some such so Tesla isn't reinventing the necessary research.
Today there was an article in the WSJ: Tesla’s Fair Market Value: $67.12, NYU Prof Says - MoneyBeat - WSJ
The NYU professor states: "I am assuming that the technological and innovative component that sets Tesla apart will allow it to deliver a pre-tax operating margin of 12.50% in steady state, putting it in the 95th percentile of auto companies (and closer to the margin for technology companies).”
Elon has stated a goal a gross margin of 25% without ZEV credits if I recall correctly. That is double what this author states. What am I missing?
The NYU professor states: "I am assuming that the technological and innovative component that sets Tesla apart will allow it to deliver a pre-tax operating margin of 12.50% in steady state, putting it in the 95th percentile of auto companies (and closer to the margin for technology companies).”
Elon has stated a goal a gross margin of 25% without ZEV credits if I recall correctly. That is double what this author states. What am I missing?
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Elon's number only applies to Model S, as far as I know. There's been no guidance for Gen III that I know of, so people can guess whatever they want, haha.
There is a difference in operating margin and gross margin. That is where the difference comes from. A 12.5% operating margin is still pretty generous for a 25% gross margin.
I noticed that the analyst compared Tesla to Porsche and other traditional car companies. Tesla is operating like a manufacturer and direct retailer of cars while the author compares Tesla to other auto manufacturers that are more like wholesale manufacturers. I didn't see that addressed in the comparison.
Norse
Active Member
http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/artikkel.php?artid=10143397 Heres a taxidriver from Norway claiming that he will save 16 500 US dollar each year on driving the model S. This just shows you how big the market can be in Europe, especially in the Shuttle and taxi-sector.
caddieo
Member
Looks and sounds interesting. Is it possible to get an English translation somehow?
Do you have a translate button? I have Chrome as my browser and a button pops up on the top that asks me if I want to translate the article. It is still not a great translation but you get the gist of it.
marvinat0rz
Member
I'm bored, I'll translate it for you. Stand by.
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Here's the country's first electric super-cab
-Saves NOK 100,000/year in fuel, road toll and parking fees
This morning, driver and owner Trond Sømme could proudly offer his customers rides in Tesla's first electric super-car.
A number of celebrities have bought the car - among others, Norwegian crown prince Haakon, the Danish crown prince and the Right party's Nikolai Astrup. Now the celebrated car has also become a cab.
Electric joy
"I've only had good feedback from the customers yet. Finally I've got a full-blooded electric car, where I don't have to be scared that I won't have any power left", says cab owner Trond Gustav Sømme.
Was laughed at
He has been a pioneer in electric cars.
"I've driven the Leaf for a long time. My colleagues have been laughing for a year, but now more of them are switching to the Leaf. It's an excellent cab. But this one has much better battery capacity", he says as he pets his Tesla:
"It has a battery capacity of 50 [metric] miles, but for city driving the capacity is 40 [metric] miles. In one shift we drive around 25 on average, so this is more than enough for a day. The Leaf doesn't have the same capacity."
Saves 100,000 a year
To get one of the first Tesla Model S delivered, he had to order the biggest model, with the greatest battery capacity.
"It cost NOK 707,000. But the math looks great: Compared with a diesel car, I now have 100,000 less in annual expenses for diesel, toll roads and parking."
He hasn't even finished these words before parking enforcer Ijaz A. Khusi comes over and threatens with a parking ticket, because we are illegally parked. But when he sees it's a Tesla, he laughs and says: "It's okay. You're good for now". Laughing, he reveals that he himself has also ordered one.
Customers can order the electric cab
Sømme says the the price per ride is the same as all the other cabs from Oslo Taxy.
"And if people want to have a ride, they can simply order the Tesla when they call. I'll be there. Or they can call me directly", he says.
Since the electric car doesn't have an engine, there is lots of space for luggage under the hood. And the Tesla is a 7-seater, with two child seats in the back.
"Do you think you'll be equally happy in winter, in -20 (celcius, ~ -4F) degrees?"
"In that regard, I'm a test pilot. The important thing is that the logistics work out. If there are going to be many cabs like this in Oslo, Tesla has to set up a charging hub in the city.
Happy customer
He says he's considering to buy a charger/converter for NOK 20,000 to keep in his garage.
"The city probably supports this and covers half the expense", he says.
"It looks good. It's great to have the option of being driven around in an electric car like this when you need a cab", customer Hans Petter Dramstad says before he gets in the back.
In Oslo taxi, people are happy about Sømme's purchase.
"It looks like a fully capable alternative to fossil fuels. I have great belief in it as a future cab".
- - - Updated - - -
Here's the country's first electric super-cab
-Saves NOK 100,000/year in fuel, road toll and parking fees
This morning, driver and owner Trond Sømme could proudly offer his customers rides in Tesla's first electric super-car.
A number of celebrities have bought the car - among others, Norwegian crown prince Haakon, the Danish crown prince and the Right party's Nikolai Astrup. Now the celebrated car has also become a cab.
Electric joy
"I've only had good feedback from the customers yet. Finally I've got a full-blooded electric car, where I don't have to be scared that I won't have any power left", says cab owner Trond Gustav Sømme.
Was laughed at
He has been a pioneer in electric cars.
"I've driven the Leaf for a long time. My colleagues have been laughing for a year, but now more of them are switching to the Leaf. It's an excellent cab. But this one has much better battery capacity", he says as he pets his Tesla:
"It has a battery capacity of 50 [metric] miles, but for city driving the capacity is 40 [metric] miles. In one shift we drive around 25 on average, so this is more than enough for a day. The Leaf doesn't have the same capacity."
Saves 100,000 a year
To get one of the first Tesla Model S delivered, he had to order the biggest model, with the greatest battery capacity.
"It cost NOK 707,000. But the math looks great: Compared with a diesel car, I now have 100,000 less in annual expenses for diesel, toll roads and parking."
He hasn't even finished these words before parking enforcer Ijaz A. Khusi comes over and threatens with a parking ticket, because we are illegally parked. But when he sees it's a Tesla, he laughs and says: "It's okay. You're good for now". Laughing, he reveals that he himself has also ordered one.
Customers can order the electric cab
Sømme says the the price per ride is the same as all the other cabs from Oslo Taxy.
"And if people want to have a ride, they can simply order the Tesla when they call. I'll be there. Or they can call me directly", he says.
Since the electric car doesn't have an engine, there is lots of space for luggage under the hood. And the Tesla is a 7-seater, with two child seats in the back.
"Do you think you'll be equally happy in winter, in -20 (celcius, ~ -4F) degrees?"
"In that regard, I'm a test pilot. The important thing is that the logistics work out. If there are going to be many cabs like this in Oslo, Tesla has to set up a charging hub in the city.
Happy customer
He says he's considering to buy a charger/converter for NOK 20,000 to keep in his garage.
"The city probably supports this and covers half the expense", he says.
"It looks good. It's great to have the option of being driven around in an electric car like this when you need a cab", customer Hans Petter Dramstad says before he gets in the back.
In Oslo taxi, people are happy about Sømme's purchase.
"It looks like a fully capable alternative to fossil fuels. I have great belief in it as a future cab".
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Words of HABIT
Active Member
MarvinatOrz, thanks for taking the time translate. If you are still bored perhaps you can tackle some of the comments of the article (or even approx. response of either pro or con Tesla). Most interesting in the article is that the Model S is purchased by Princes and Cab Drivers and Parking Enforcers alike. This debunks the myth the Model S is only for the 1%ers. People that would not normally purchase such an expensive car are finding ways to justify the expense (i.e saving gas, oil and maintenance charges, saving time in Green HOV lanes, saving the environment, cool factor, etc.).
We seem to be stuck in the $160 - $170/sp for now until another major positive catalyst drives higher. Events would include next quarterly meeting and final design of the Model X (should be by February 2014 to make it to the major auto shows and allow production for the Fall '14. Avoid the daily noise. Steady stays the course. Enjoy the ride into our future. Best.
We seem to be stuck in the $160 - $170/sp for now until another major positive catalyst drives higher. Events would include next quarterly meeting and final design of the Model X (should be by February 2014 to make it to the major auto shows and allow production for the Fall '14. Avoid the daily noise. Steady stays the course. Enjoy the ride into our future. Best.
Scandinavian mile - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A metric mile in the US refers to 1.5 km, but in Scandinavia it is 10 Km (6.2 miles)
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Much of the media discussion is about wether to see Tesla as a auto company or a tech company. Implying that the rest would be "momentum" and/or hype by Tesla fans.
However, Tesla's primary objective is to provide one of the key elements to the transition to sustainable energy. (I'm not talking about evaluating TSLA as an energy company, though.) I'm not sure how to quantify Tesla's value in this regard, however I do think that TSLA current share price reflects this value to a certain degree. Obviously, a number of people would not be willing to acknowledge such a value, still that doesn't change the fact that many people do. Probably more than enough to buy all the shares.
Furthermore such evaluations also tend to ignore that Tesla has built a car (its first one, in a sense, though not its first electric drive) that is among the very best. It's not just another auto company. In several regards, not just the electric one, Tesla is already advancing the state of the art. Given Elon's goal of not stopping until there is a global transition to electric cars, one of the possible outcomes seems to be that Tesla may become a market leader.
Personally, I'd like Tesla to (partly later-on) also build batteries, electric planes and what-not (super capacitors).
Maybe even drive trains for ships and things like that. In other words, a really large company.
However, coming back to sustainable energy: to help enable or catalyze such a transition is a huge value, and not just an academic one.
Ha! I thought I was being humorous, but it's an actual thing. Thanks for the link!
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A symptom of narrow-minded thinking. It's both. Deal with what that means, media.
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