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Looking for auto industry sales / registration data - your help please

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by adiggs, Oct 2, 2014.

  1. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Sep 25, 2012
    Portland, OR
    Good morning all,

    My request of each of you - are you aware of data sources I can access that contain raw data in and around sales / registrations, in the Model S segment. If yes, and you're willing to share, please reply with a link or other information that I can use to run down the data source. I interpret this pretty broadly, and I'm looking for several independent sources, as part of the question my group will be studying is whether an effect detected in one data source can also be found in another data source. So if you're not sure if a particular data source applies or not, I'd rather learn about it and then decide that it doesn't apply.

    I can't promise that your help will result in something that is helpful back to you, but I'm hoping it will. I'm taking an advanced predictive modeling class this term, and for a group project, I'm hoping our team will study what the Europeans call the F-segment (luxury cars). The particular hypothesis I have that I want to test, using several different data sources if possible, is that:
    - Model S is taking market segment share from existing competitors
    - Model S is expanding the luxury car market segment (by attracting buyers that would otherwise not be participating in the market). I guess we could see this as taking market share from other markets!

    I figure that if my hypothesis is correct, and if anecdotes I've read are indicative of the real trend, then this will manifest most clearly in the US market, and most clearly of all in the California market. Might this model be usable to predict impact in the China market? Or how the European market will evolve?

    A related hypothesis is that the impact in the segment by the Model S might be detectable as early as 2009/10 when Model S reservations started being taken (need to track that down). This view of things suggests that some buyers of cars in the segment postponed purchases, or in effect, bought a car in the segment the day they put down their Model S deposit. The overall segment isn't all that large, but the number of deposits was also pretty small relative to the market, so this effect might not be detectable. (Related question - is it detectable in Model X's segment?) And if it's detectable, might we be able to project that to Model 3's segment?

    In the spirit of identifying data sources and to get things rolling, here are some data sources I've found so far:
    There are numerous ways of defining the car segment, and I suspect I'm going to be learning about many of them. An initial definition I like for it's simplicity: F-segment
    Of course, this links to other segment definitions for the European market.

    From richkae (thanks Rich!), I've got this source that I'll be looking into more deeply: 2014/01/usa-vehicle-sales- rankings-by-model-december- 2013-year-end.html
    I'm hoping to find data for previous years, going well back before even reservations started being taken for Model S.

    I've also found ABI Research:
    This table of contents looks promising. It also appears to be a paid research / data source, and I'm not planning to spend money to acquire the data.

  2. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

    Jul 2, 2013
    Los Angeles
    Front Page -- Automotive News
    is the website for industry's trade journal Automotive News and is the authoritative source but it does require subscription to view the data. Not so for limited viewing of articles. My local library carries Automotive News.

    Automotive News Europe

    Automotive News China - das Bookmark der Autobranche

    Some of the state franchised dealers organizations have compiled data available to the public but some only to members.

    CNCDA is the CA dealer site and has data available to the public under California Auto Outlook.
  3. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Sep 25, 2012
    Portland, OR
    Thanks Rob - that's helpful. As you said, the Automotive News data is tantalizingly just out of reach. I'm going to try to get at that through my University's Library - maybe they have a subscription that will get me in :)

    The digging on the CNCDA site I did - I did find some newsletter type stuff with data for 2014. I didn't see an archive or similar type of thing that would show forecast or actual data for light vehicles going back 5+ years unfortunately. This might become a secondary source for confirming or denoying what we're finding elsewhere. I'm really hoping to find state level data (or at least CA level data) going back 7+ years - somewhere before Model S, so we have a chance to establish market behavior before and with the Model S, especially in it's most developed market.

    Or we'll just decide to go look at something else, but the data sources will be interesting either way.

    Here's another source somebody else found - I'm still mucking about with this to see if I can get raw data with details:

    St. Louis Federal Reserve - looking like this is open sourced. Also initially looking like it's primarily designed for people to interact with the data through the website (where I want to download the data set and have my fun elsewhere).

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