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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not just contractors. All businesses that depend on fed workers to come to work and buy lunch/coffee. They will never get that money.
I stand corrected, properly, for falling into the normal political analysis of the media. As with much theorizing about causes in complicated cases, where you stand determines what you say. Scientists may have more sophisticated ways to separate causes and effects, what is structural, what is contingent. We are lucky the boundary condition for this outcome was not a mid-air collision. Countless other sacrifices have been made by ordinary citizens and those who work in government each and every one contributing to the political pressure. Credit is also due Republicans in government. I had only instinct to assert above the government won't be shut down again. However, news accounts confirm that more than Lisa Murkowsky "don't want to go through this again."
Of course those affected most by the shutdown deserve credit for reminding us of the importance of government and how much we need it and need to celebrate the actual grunts who do the work. The ripple effects of this disaster will have political consequences that can be far reaching as sociologists have been trying to tell us since at least Habits of the Heart. Democracy requires that we pay attention. A return to regular order and Congressional Government can correct the excesses of presidential leadership which we have leaned upon too much since World War II. That may be the true legacy of the village idiot in the White House.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
They voted for him because they thought he would hurt only non-whites, not them !
‘It’s Just Too Much’: A Florida Town Grapples With a Shutdown After a Hurricane
“I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” she said of Mr. Trump. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.”
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Mitch McConnel (and Paul Ryan) has contributed immensely to this erosion of democracy. They are proving the cover Trump doesn't deserve.
It will be interesting to see what happens in 3 weeks when the wall money doesn't materialize. I expect either emergency declaration (would set a precedent for next president to use to get Medicare 4 All and New Green Deal) or if a shutdown is tried, workers will shutdown airports on day 1.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Pelosi didn't cave in to his demands, that counts for something.
Do you see the contradiction in your two statements? It does matter who wins because the sides are not equal.
The cause of the end of the shutdown is not a simple, single cause. The Republicans in Congress were beginning to cave. The Republican Senate luncheon on Thursday was very tense with a lot of sniping. Lawrence O'Donnell also pointed out Thursday evening that 6 Republicans defecting to vote for the Democratic bill on Thursday was a harbinger of a cascade about to happen. He pointed out that when a party is trying to stand firm on a vote like that and there are defectors, the next vote is likely to have many more defectors.
Republican resolve was falling apart in the Senate.
Pelosi and the rest of the Democrats standing strong and repeatedly saying no was also a factor in wearing down both Trump and the Republicans. Trump misread the situation badly and was sure right up to the point he folded that the Democratic caucus was going to fray and they would have defectors. He didn't realize that pretty much every Democrat knew they had a winning hand if they just held out.
Trump is too naive about politics to know what political battles are winnable and which are losers. He also thinks a much larger percentage of the country is his base than the reality. He figured most rank and file Democrats were getting contacted by his supporters giving them grief, but the opposite was true. Republicans were getting hit hard by their constituents wondering what they were smoking.
The warning bells that something catastrophic was going to happen if the shutdown didn't end quickly was also weakening the resolve. The threat to the entire air traffic control system shutting down on Super Bowl weekend was the tipping point.
We're not out of the woods yet. There are many, many critical systems in the US that have been neglected for over a month. Some are just messes like facilities at National Parks. Some of those are health hazards, but only on a small scale for those directly coming into contact with them. Other things like food inspection has been neglected and there could be something in the distribution chain now that we'll find out about in the coming weeks.
Fortunately things like dam safety is an Army Corps of Engineers program, however they may have been understaffed. I don't know how much they rely on civilian contractors who may have been furloughed. There are also other federal programs that regularly inspect and maintain various parts of the infrastructure around the country and a lot of that hasn't been done in over a month. During that time a large part of the country has been impacts by an epic cold period. There could be some kind of critical infrastructure damaged by snow and ice nobody knows about because the people who normally maintain it weren't on the job and it will be a week or more before all those things get checked again.
I also came across this today:
“An Inherited Money Dude from Queens County”: How Unseen Candidate Characteristics Affect Voter Perceptions
An article that sums up the research:
Many Voters Think Trump’s a Self-Made Man. What Happens When You Tell Them Otherwise?
Republican resolve was falling apart in the Senate.
Pelosi and the rest of the Democrats standing strong and repeatedly saying no was also a factor in wearing down both Trump and the Republicans. Trump misread the situation badly and was sure right up to the point he folded that the Democratic caucus was going to fray and they would have defectors. He didn't realize that pretty much every Democrat knew they had a winning hand if they just held out.
Trump is too naive about politics to know what political battles are winnable and which are losers. He also thinks a much larger percentage of the country is his base than the reality. He figured most rank and file Democrats were getting contacted by his supporters giving them grief, but the opposite was true. Republicans were getting hit hard by their constituents wondering what they were smoking.
The warning bells that something catastrophic was going to happen if the shutdown didn't end quickly was also weakening the resolve. The threat to the entire air traffic control system shutting down on Super Bowl weekend was the tipping point.
We're not out of the woods yet. There are many, many critical systems in the US that have been neglected for over a month. Some are just messes like facilities at National Parks. Some of those are health hazards, but only on a small scale for those directly coming into contact with them. Other things like food inspection has been neglected and there could be something in the distribution chain now that we'll find out about in the coming weeks.
Fortunately things like dam safety is an Army Corps of Engineers program, however they may have been understaffed. I don't know how much they rely on civilian contractors who may have been furloughed. There are also other federal programs that regularly inspect and maintain various parts of the infrastructure around the country and a lot of that hasn't been done in over a month. During that time a large part of the country has been impacts by an epic cold period. There could be some kind of critical infrastructure damaged by snow and ice nobody knows about because the people who normally maintain it weren't on the job and it will be a week or more before all those things get checked again.
I also came across this today:
“An Inherited Money Dude from Queens County”: How Unseen Candidate Characteristics Affect Voter Perceptions
An article that sums up the research:
Many Voters Think Trump’s a Self-Made Man. What Happens When You Tell Them Otherwise?
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
JRP,
I do it all the time. I read into something what I'm thinking. The case of caring about who wins, the political success of one person versus another is simply not the point. These people need to be acting in our best interest. Instead, we have this almost prurient interest in "our side" winning. This constant need for Gladiator style tribal entertainment give the Carvilles/Roves all they need to play us against each other. The Your Fired clown is an absurd example of this.
Ending the shutdown mattered. The idea that one side is functional is a farce. Hang around for a few years, let the pendulum swing and see if the deficit spending goes away, or if presidential candidates spend less than $1B in an attempt to get a job that pays about $500K a year for four years, or if freshmen congress people spend more than half their working week dialing for cash to get re-elected, or, or, or,.....
The system if fundamentally broken. The knee jerk reaction for those who want easy solutions is to send a clown to DC to blow things up. These are the same people that will burn their house down to get rid of termites. It is only when they are sitting on the street without a house to sleep in that they MIGHT realize the house was actually a good idea and that burning it down may not have been such a good idea. It just took getting homeless for them to figure it out.
Can you imagine if that idiot Paul actually shut down the EPA? Talk about stupidity driving homelessness.
I hope the above better explains where I was going with both statements and how they do indeed hold hands.
I do it all the time. I read into something what I'm thinking. The case of caring about who wins, the political success of one person versus another is simply not the point. These people need to be acting in our best interest. Instead, we have this almost prurient interest in "our side" winning. This constant need for Gladiator style tribal entertainment give the Carvilles/Roves all they need to play us against each other. The Your Fired clown is an absurd example of this.
Ending the shutdown mattered. The idea that one side is functional is a farce. Hang around for a few years, let the pendulum swing and see if the deficit spending goes away, or if presidential candidates spend less than $1B in an attempt to get a job that pays about $500K a year for four years, or if freshmen congress people spend more than half their working week dialing for cash to get re-elected, or, or, or,.....
The system if fundamentally broken. The knee jerk reaction for those who want easy solutions is to send a clown to DC to blow things up. These are the same people that will burn their house down to get rid of termites. It is only when they are sitting on the street without a house to sleep in that they MIGHT realize the house was actually a good idea and that burning it down may not have been such a good idea. It just took getting homeless for them to figure it out.
Can you imagine if that idiot Paul actually shut down the EPA? Talk about stupidity driving homelessness.
I hope the above better explains where I was going with both statements and how they do indeed hold hands.
There are also a plethora of things that have been dormant a month that will take a very long time to recover. Just a few of them:
-new aircraft certifications;
-new airman certificates/designated examiner new and renewal;
-air carrier certiification/operating manual new, modification and renewal;
- FDA approvals for anything at all, including food labels;
-science projects interrupted or lost entirely (some recoverable some not)
-DOT inspections, approvals, modifications for truckers, railroads, road vehicles of any kind.
And an incredible variety of other things, mostly unreported, unremarked, not to mention;
-the hundreds of thousands of (?) Federal contractors which will not be paid for interruption, nor will employees be paid. How many cleaners, cooks, etc will still be around after their employers begin to be paid again. They are paid more poorly than direct government employees and have minimal benefits.
-then all those Federal suppliers around the world who supply services to US Federal government. (anecdotes may even be useful. My brother-in-law rents an apartment to the US State Department. His quarterly payment was due December 17. It hasn't been paid nor have the property taxes, condominium fees, electricity or water, all of which were to be paid by the tenant. Luckily, I could lend him the money to cover all of that. Some of these were to be paid directly by the State department, but non-payment reverts to property owner. Who knows how all this will be resolved?) multiply this absurdity by >100 countries and many US Government agencies. What a mess!!!
-Then how about the 'brain drain' at higher levels from people who gave up on Federal employment after the debacles of the last two years?
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Gary Johnson...
Ah, what could have been.
Let the Aleppo and dope smoking comments commence. Thought it might be a good distraction. (Yes, I voted for him and yes I firmly believe he was the most experienced, most qualified candidate.)
Dan
Ah, what could have been.
Let the Aleppo and dope smoking comments commence. Thought it might be a good distraction. (Yes, I voted for him and yes I firmly believe he was the most experienced, most qualified candidate.)
Dan
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Pogo said it all when I was in college a few years ago (60+): "we have seen the enemy, and he is us."
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Really,
Putin could hardly do a better job if he were dressed up in a Trump suit.
Putin could hardly do a better job if he were dressed up in a Trump suit.
Lucky_Man
Member
I hope the followers of Grover Norquist's plan to "...drown the government in a bathtub" will finally be able to take to heart, and sense the pain felt by so many American citizens that have suffered during this latest GOP-owned shutdown.
No, Ronnie. The government is NOT the problem. [yes, I realize he was only an actor/puppet but I don't know - unequivocally - who was pulling his strings]
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MOD: IMO, this shutdown discussion is valid because it DID affect the broader market. TY
No, Ronnie. The government is NOT the problem. [yes, I realize he was only an actor/puppet but I don't know - unequivocally - who was pulling his strings]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MOD: IMO, this shutdown discussion is valid because it DID affect the broader market. TY
EVNow
Well-Known Member
LOL. You get 40+ extra seats only to cave after a few weeks ? That would be self-immolation - and even Pelosi is not that bad.
If you really want to thank any politicians for not caving - look at Dem Senators from red states - only one voted for Trump wall bill.
GE for sure since his notoriety was due to speeches he gave on its behalf before he considered politics, aside from being an FBI informant when head of the Screen Actor's Guild. Nancy too, enough to get his chief of staff fired. As Governor and President he was reported to be influenced by Ed Meese.
As president he gained a lot because of Peggy Noonan's speech writing. I don't know anything about their dynamic. (We know a lot about Kennedy and his wordsmith, whose name escapes me at the moment.) I suspect Reagan's VP had a great influence since he was so well-groomed for the job. The guidance there from Jim Baker would have been important.
Edit: Ted Sorensen
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Those who know anything about inside baseball in Congress know that Nancy Pelosi is one of the most effective politicians ever in Congress. In her last stint as Speaker she set records for the most bills passed through. When she presided over the House in the 110th and 111th Congresses, Congress passed over 1400 bills per session. 2 of those years were the last two of Bush's presidency. The 112th through 115th (Boener and Ryan) passed through around 700 per session. The 113th passed 663.
You would expect a lot of bills to pass when one party controls both Houses and the White House. That happened from 2009-2011 (the 11th Congress) and again 2017-2019 (115th). After Kennedy died and a Republican replaced him, Mitch McConnell, who is Pelosi's equal at politics was able to stall out a lot of legislation in the Senate by filibustering everything, so most of the bills her House passed went nowhere. But she is a master at whipping a vote and she gets her bills through the House. The House rules are such that the minority party essentially has no power and an organized majority can ram lots of legislation through. Boener and Ryan were especially bad at keeping their coalition marching in the same direction.
The Democrats know they have a winning hand if they stay strong. They have been bullied by the Republicans for 25 years, but a new generation of Democrats immune to the bullying are coming along and breathing new life into the party. Ocasio-Cortez, whether you agree with her politics or not, is unwavering in her reaction to Republican attempts to bully her and that's rubbing off as well as changing public perceptions of the party.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If by effective you mean someone who does the bidding of the corporate donors. Not otherwise.
They didn't even do a comprehensive immigration reform - one of the reasons Trump won. They also didn't do anything for climate change. So 2 of the 3 big bets Obama ran on weren't done. ACA was a pathetic mess - very badly sold that lost Dems 60+ seats in 2010, that allowed Republicans to gerrymander all over the country. If this is how effective she is - I don't want to know how she is when she is ineffective. Ofcourse, Obama is equally culpable in all this.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Pretty sure the Republicans would see the Democrats as the bullies. That's the thing, we have digressed the childish name calling and finger pointing. In my opinion things in Washington are not going to improve until there is a viable 3rd alternative with equal access to exposure and funding. Until then our government will continue to function like Romper Room.
Dan
Here is a thoughtful assessment of the possibilities with support from relevant legal scholars.
5 Scenarios For How Mueller’s Investigation Could End
5 Scenarios For How Mueller’s Investigation Could End
Lucky_Man
Member
Thank you for the link. I personally prefer Andrew Coan's approach - Provide the 'Moscow Tower Roadmap' to our House of Representatives.
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