Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Market politics

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Given the polarity in our country at this time, and especially the polarity in our elected officials, I think there is about a 0% chance of fixing our election processes without it being just a partisan exercise to try to help their own party as opposed to trying to help the country.

The reason the electoral college was created was to prevent a handful of large states from overwhelming the remainder of the states. In the last presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in California, while Donald Trump won the total combined popular vote in the rest of the country. No coincidence that the calls I hear for eliminating the electoral "to make the presidential election more representative of the votes of the people" are primarily from Californians and New Yorkers. Such a change would obviously shift power to California and NY (and a handful of other states) and would obviously help democratic candidates at the expense of republicans.

Similar for the calls to eliminate the senate. Same reason and same result.

Generating much less noise is the idea of making the House of Representatives more representative of the votes of the people. Similar to breaking the countries voters up by state in the electoral college, we break states up by district which also skews the election results from the votes, so what's good for the goose should be good for the gander. In California, the democratic party got 65.3% of the votes for representatives, but have 86.8% of the representatives (46 to 7), a proportional system would shift 11 of those seats to republican. In New York, the democratic party got 66.2% of the votes for representatives, but have 77.8% of the representatives (21 to 6), a proportional system would shift 3 of those seats to republican. Those two shifts would change the House from a 40 seat Democratic advantage (236 to 196) down to only a 12 seat advantage (222 to 210). I don't know how it would play out through the rest of the country, but I guarantee that the elected officials who would change the rules would be 100% aware of the impact to their own party, and we would see 100% in favor by the benefiting party (who would tout is as being a more method) and 0% in favor by the harmed party (who would portray it as a simple power grab).

So at some point we need to say that though not perfect, we have a system that has been working for 240 years, and our ability to fix it in a fair, non-partisan manner doesn't really exist, so we should probably just leave well enough alone. If you don't win the game, you have to play better, not change the rules.
We are on the verge of a Russian or French Revolution scenario. The majority of the people have had their needs ignored for too long. Either we fix the system to be properly democratic, or within the next ten years, the bloody revolution starts.

Make no mistake: the majority, who also has a supermajority of the youth and of those of fighting age and a majority of the titans of rising industries on its side, along with all scientists, would win.

I would like to make the transition peacefully. Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

Trying to leave the undemocratic, broken system in place guarantees violent revolution, probably within 10 years. We are getting closer to the breaking point.

I have hopes we can pass the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. I think it would take a lot of the pressure off, maybe put off the revolution long enough that the majority (gaining as younger people get older) could take 2/3 of the Senate and give us another 50 years.

We are to the point where a majority of Republicans support single payer health care and marijuana legalization, but it is bollixed up by defective Federal politics. Some states are pretty bad but Baker v Carr managed to fix the worst Senate-like problems, and there is no state equivalent of the Electoral College, so they are all healthier than the Federal situation.
 
Last edited:
To put things another way: the states are big because they have the people.

The US system gives people more power if they live in a low-population state. (But, it also gives people more power if they live in a politically-divided state, due to how the parties game the electoral system.)

That's wrong.

If you want to prevent states from having too much concentration of power, without disenfranchising residents of big states, maybe setting a state population limit, at which point the state would have to split, keeping population of a state in a narrow range, would work. However, that would also create nasty policy issues in cases where, say, a metropolitan area would span dozens or thousands of states, and one state government could screw up the whole metro area's planning.

Alternately, small population states could combine to increase their population, if they want to be represented as one entity.
 
Been awaiting fresh commentary on the corrupting influence of "corporate campaign contributions" and I'm a bit disappointed it hasn't come up in this latest round of expressions, so I thought I'd open up that can of worms. That fateful decision by Justice Robert's court will have long and far-reaching consequences - none of them good. Apparently, ours is the best government money can buy. JMHO...

Anyone disagree? If so, please defend.
 
Been awaiting fresh commentary on the corrupting influence of "corporate campaign contributions" and I'm a bit disappointed it hasn't come up in this latest round of expressions, so I thought I'd open up that can of worms. That fateful decision by Justice Robert's court will have long and far-reaching consequences - none of them good. Apparently, ours is the best government money can buy. JMHO...

Anyone disagree? If so, please defend.
Nobody disagrees.

I do think it's much easier to buy Congresspeople when

(1) you have a malapportioned Senate. Buying a Wyoming Senator is cheap!

Who's Behind The War On Electric Cars? | CleanTechnica

Look how cheap Barasso is! You can't buy a NY, Texas, or California Senator for such chump change. That's because Wyoming has so few people in it. Very few billionaires can afford to buy a large-state Senator, but small-state Senators are cheap!

(2) you have a gerrymandered House. First of all, the deeply gerrymandered incumbents aren't afraid of losing their jobs, so you can bribe them and not worry about having to bribe their challengers. Secondly, you only have to buy the elections of the "swing district" Representatives if you have a gerrymandered House.
 
"Fix" the system so a large percentage of the population can not do something as stupid as Trump again and a large percentage of the population will find another way to do something as stupid as Trump.

The problem is not the system, it is the people. We are evolving into a banana republic. The question for me is can the trend be reversed?

As the saying goes, make something foolproof and the universe invents a better fool.

The life cycle of all human made systems mimic biological systems. All human made institutions calcify and deteriorate, but some can reset several times before they completely fall apart. The Roman Empire became pretty corrupt at the end, but it lasted longer than any empire in the last 1000 years or more. The UK was the biggest empire in world history 100 years ago and the empire is gone, but the country still punches above its weight and while it's a political mess today with Brexit, it has survived.

I should have just gone to Wikipedia for the numbers ...at any rate, as a Canadian, I was pointing out that the US has one of the best systems of Government ever devised and from my point of view, I would be reluctant to dismantle it based on the results of one or two elections, even though, as you say, it's not perfect. Also, when just over 50% bother to vote, that is an even larger "disenfranchisement" than any monkey business with the electoral college.

The US system does need reforms. The checks and balances built into the system have helped, but the flaw in any system is it only works as long as everyone in power ultimately agrees to play by the established rules. Courts can order things illegal, but the president needs to obey those court orders and Congress needs to impeach and remove if those orders are ignored. Right now getting an impeachment on Trump would be a slam dunk, but even though probably most Senators would agree privately that Trump is guilty as hell, there would be no conviction in the Senate because too many Senators put party over country.

A lot of the polarization in the US has come about because of conservative media over the last 25 years. Canada doesn't allow Fox News because its way of putting spin on the news is illegal by your news guidelines. The US had a Fairness Doctrine about news from the founding of the FCC in the 1930s until Reagan.

Preserving the rights to free political speech is important and I think people should be able to voice their political opinions, but most of the public can't tell the difference between opinion and factual reporting. Back when the Fairness Doctrine was in effect, news programs could opine, but a caption would appear on the screen saying "Opinion" or "Editorial". We need to go back to that.

I think we also need a legal definition of news and a valid news organization. A real news organization attempts to report facts accurately and when they get something wrong, they are quick to post a retraction. They also have a code of ethics that all their reporters need to adhere to and punish those who stray outside the guidelines deliberately. No real news organization ever gets the news 100% right, but they make reasonable efforts to do so.

If it wasn't for the polarization, Donald Trump probably wouldn't have had a chance, and if he was elected, Republicans in Congress would be more open to doing the right thing and removing him from office. The Democrats have become more tribal in response to the Republicans, but the Republican party has become a cult. They will burn down the country to serve what the party leader wants.

That is what happens right now. Our votes in NY, California, and Texas are worthless because we are "safe states". 4 or 5 swing states decide the election.


That is what is happening right now. That is why there will be a civil war or NY and California will secede, unless democracy is restored with a National Popular Vote Intetrstste Compact.

The idiotic Electoral College has one member per House representative plus one per Senator; the Founders created it along with the disastrous Senate because they had the Senate and the pro-Senate Connecticut group wanted it to be like the Senate. The so called Great Compromise which created the Senate worked temporarily. It has now failed. It must be fixed.


The Senate does not do that. The House does. Upstate NY has House reepresentaion, and no Senate representation, for example. The Rio Grand region of Texas has House representation and no Senate representation. The Central Valley of California has House representation and no Senate representation.

Each state is guaranteed one House member. That is sufficient. The Senate is just a venue for abuse and undemocratic tyrrany.

Even when the Senate has blocked what I thought was bad legislation, I think it was bad. People did not get to see how awful GWB was because his worst plans were filibustered. Had they seen them implemented, I think he would not have been reelected.


That is because you have never studied history. You are wrong!

They have actually done studies on which forms of government are more stable and less prone to coups and civil wars. Parliamentary systems like the UK are better than Presidential systems like the US... A lot better. EVERY other Presidential system has collapsed into dictatorship in less than 100 years, no exceptions. Every one modeled on the US has failed.

The US system failed too, during the Civil War... Britain abolished slavery without such a war. Actually it failed under Andrew Jackson as well, who ignored the Supreme Court to commit genocide against the Cherokee. The US system nearly failed again in the Great Depression, though FDR threatening Congress with unilateral dictatorship (yes, he did) was enough to make the Senate cooperate, and he did something similar by threatening the Supreme Court with expansion. Similar things have been necessary in UK history but always to address a deficit of democracy (like the House of Lords obstructing things).


Proportial representation parliaments (such as Germany, Ireland, Scotland, India) are even more durable than single member district first past the post parliaments like the UK and Canada.

If you really want to represent everyone you need proportional representation.



Oh, sorry, I thought you were serious and responded before seeing the sarcasm tag! You got me. :)

Many states are very centered on one region. Even though around half the state's population is in Southern California and the second largest metro area in the country is there as well as most of that region votes heavily Democratic, the statewide offices are dominated by Bay Area people, and it's been that way for my entire life. The only Southern Californians to get anywhere beyond a House Rep have been Republicans: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan, and Richard Nixon. When Southern Californian Democrats run statewide, they get trounced by Bay Area Democrats.

Washington State and Oregon have the same dynamic you were talking about. The center of power in Washington is the Puget Sound region and it's around Portland in Oregon. For statewide races, not much else matters. I have seen some candidates win three counties in Washington and carry the state because those three counties have the bulk of the state's population. In much of the west, you get outside the cities and there is a whole lot of nothing. The next county to our east is pretty good size geographically, one of the larger counties in the state, but only has 12,000 people.

The drawback of proportional representation is that the representatives could end up all coming from one part of the state. Washington could end up drawing all 10 if its representative from the Puget Sound region. The Republicans would be drawn from the richest Republicans in the state, who are all in East King County and mostly tech millionaires and billionaires. They will have the money to drown out the eastern Washington Republicans who are more in line with the national party. The east King County Republicans have more in common with Bill Weld than Mitch McConnell.

Personally I don't have a problem with that flavor of Republican, but the rural Republicans in Washington will feel even more left out than they do now. At least Eastern Washingtonians feel Don Newhouse and Cathy McMorris Rodgers is "one of them".

Few recognize the cultural divisions in the US, but redrawing the state boundaries along cultural lines would probably help in some states. Many of the traditional battleground states are that way because they are made up of three different cultures. Maybe the cultures that really can't get along with one another should get a divorce. The reason the Senate worked during the Civil War is because the culture that had been fighting with the New England Yankees for control since the founding of the republic had walked out and let the Yankees control the Senate.

We are on the verge of a Russian or French Revolution scenario. The majority of the people have had their needs ignored for too long. Either we fix the system to be properly democratic, or within the next ten years, the bloody revolution starts.

Make no mistake: the majority, who also has a supermajority of the youth and of those of fighting age and a majority of the titans of rising industries on its side, along with all scientists, would win.

I would like to make the transition peacefully. Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

Trying to leave the undemocratic, broken system in place guarantees violent revolution, probably within 10 years. We are getting closer to the breaking point.

I have hopes we can pass the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. I think it would take a lot of the pressure off, maybe put off the revolution long enough that the majority (gaining as younger people get older) could take 2/3 of the Senate and give us another 50 years.

We are to the point where a majority of Republicans support single payer health care and marijuana legalization, but it is bollixed up by defective Federal politics. Some states are pretty bad but Baker v Carr managed to fix the worst Senate-like problems, and there is no state equivalent of the Electoral College, so they are all healthier than the Federal situation.

As Nick Hanuer has pointed out, when cultures get this much disparity between the richest and the poorest, one of two things happen: the pitchforks come out, or the country devolves into a feudal state with the haves controlling everything. A few years ago I would have predicted the latter, but the new left are much more willing to fight and I think the former is becoming much more likely.

The New Deal era had problems, but it went a long way towards reducing the disparity. The US was a major industrial power at the time, so shifting income to production workers did it then, but we don't have that now. Utopia for Realists goes into this in some depth.
 
  • Love
Reactions: neroden
The drawback of proportional representation is that the representatives could end up all coming from one part of the state.
If you have party-proportional representation, eventually (once people get used to it) you get a multiparty system. Any group which can get over the threshold (say, 5%) gets representation. There would end up being a "farmer party". Any part of the state with a large enough group who felt aggrieved and unrepresented... would start its own party and get a representative.

That's the *fundamental, underlying* benefit of proportional representation. Yes, there will be fascist representatives. And Communist representatives. And Green Party representatives. And everyone will, at least, feel represented. Or at least everyone who has a group with 5% of the population.

Personally I don't have a problem with that flavor of Republican, but the rural Republicans in Washington will feel even more left out than they do now.
Naw, they'll have their own party and representation in the state legislature. And if they get together with rural types from other states, representation in Congress.

If the House has proportional representation with each state being a district (which is the way to do it which requires no Constitutional changes), then the House should probably be *larger*, so that every state gets at least 3 representatives. Proportional representation with a district which only elects one representative isn't really proportional.

Few recognize the cultural divisions in the US, but redrawing the state boundaries along cultural lines would probably help in some states. Many of the traditional battleground states are that way because they are made up of three different cultures. Maybe the cultures that really can't get along with one another should get a divorce. The reason the Senate worked during the Civil War is because the culture that had been fighting with the New England Yankees for control since the founding of the republic had walked out and let the Yankees control the Senate.
Yep.

As Nick Hanuer has pointed out, when cultures get this much disparity between the richest and the poorest, one of two things happen: the pitchforks come out, or the country devolves into a feudal state with the haves controlling everything. A few years ago I would have predicted the latter, but the new left are much more willing to fight and I think the former is becoming much more likely.
I know exactly why. The "haves" did some astoundingly stupid things. Which groups of people are most likely and capable of causing revolution? Historically:

(1) Young people of military age: they are capable of performing the revolution
(2) Small business owners / entrepeneurs -- the original "bourgeoisie": they are capable of funding and organizing it

The "haves" gave nearly all of group 1 enough college education so that they were aware of the injustice, and then put them in debt slavery.

The "haves" verbally promoted group 2 and then ruthlessly attacked them financially using the law. (The Republican Party *really hates small business*, and the Democratic Party hasn't done much of anything for small business either.)

This is pretty much a *recipe* for creating a revolution. If the "haves" wanted to avoid that and take power, they needed to *prevent* college educations, keep the people fed and happy, and appease the small business owners.

The New Deal era had problems, but it went a long way towards reducing the disparity. The US was a major industrial power at the time, so shifting income to production workers did it then, but we don't have that now. Utopia for Realists goes into this in some depth.
Mmm-hmm
 
If you have party-proportional representation, eventually (once people get used to it) you get a multiparty system. Any group which can get over the threshold (say, 5%) gets representation. There would end up being a "farmer party". Any part of the state with a large enough group who felt aggrieved and unrepresented... would start its own party and get a representative.

That's the *fundamental, underlying* benefit of proportional representation. Yes, there will be fascist representatives. And Communist representatives. And Green Party representatives. And everyone will, at least, feel represented. Or at least everyone who has a group with 5% of the population.


Naw, they'll have their own party and representation in the state legislature. And if they get together with rural types from other states, representation in Congress.

If the House has proportional representation with each state being a district (which is the way to do it which requires no Constitutional changes), then the House should probably be *larger*, so that every state gets at least 3 representatives. Proportional representation with a district which only elects one representative isn't really proportional.


Yep.


I know exactly why. The "haves" did some astoundingly stupid things. Which groups of people are most likely and capable of causing revolution? Historically:

(1) Young people of military age: they are capable of performing the revolution
(2) Small business owners / entrepeneurs -- the original "bourgeoisie": they are capable of funding and organizing it

The "haves" gave nearly all of group 1 enough college education so that they were aware of the injustice, and then put them in debt slavery.

The "haves" verbally promoted group 2 and then ruthlessly attacked them financially using the law. (The Republican Party *really hates small business*, and the Democratic Party hasn't done much of anything for small business either.)

This is pretty much a *recipe* for creating a revolution. If the "haves" wanted to avoid that and take power, they needed to *prevent* college educations, keep the people fed and happy, and appease the small business owners.


Mmm-hmm

Many of the "haves" keep telling each other they are "haves" because they are the smartest and best. So they think they will continue to get away with what they're doing forever. These are the same people who were crowing the laws of the economic business cycles had been repealed and the economy was going to grow forever in 2007.

The "haves" who really are brilliant are the entrepreneurs who got rich creating something new the klepto class were too blind to see coming. If the kleptos had seen it, they would have swept in and bought out Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon in their infancy. Those entrepreneurs are on mostly on the side of the have nots.

Though there is one difference between past revolutions and the current situation. The disparity in arms between what's available to the public and what the military has is far greater than anything in the past. The US has a lot of guns in circulation, but all the AR-15s in circulation won't stop even a Bradley armored fighting vehicle and F-16s with napalm will wipe you and your entire band of rebels off the map. The only way the rebels would have any chance would be if a significant portion of the military joined the rebels. If about half the military defected, it would mean a very, very bloody civil war. There probably wouldn't be much of the US left when the two sides finally stopped. The uranium contamination from all the armor piercing ammunition would contaminate the environment for thousands of years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
On revolution...it seems to me that when people are clothed and fed in the manner most people are in the US then a revolution is not in the offering.

Past revolutions or uprising were due to people starving. We do not have that anymore (well N Korea) but in the USA we have the opposite problem...to many calories. Plus most people have the comfort of a climate controlled place to live. Of course there are outliers but certainly not in the numbers needed to start a civil war.

The "have not's" live better than almost every human who has come before them.
 
On revolution...it seems to me that when people are clothed and fed in the manner most people are in the US then a revolution is not in the offering.

Past revolutions or uprising were due to people starving. We do not have that anymore (well N Korea) but in the USA we have the opposite problem...to many calories. Plus most people have the comfort of a climate controlled place to live. Of course there are outliers but certainly not in the numbers needed to start a civil war.

The "have not's" live better than almost every human who has come before them.

Back to Utopia for Realists, he talks about that too. He plotted average national income vs social problems (these include crime, domestic violence rates, reported dissatisfaction in polls, etc.) There wasn't much correlation. However plotting income disparity vs social problems is close to a straight line. The higher the disparity, the higher the social problems.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
Any group which can get over the threshold (say, 5%) gets representation.

Hold up.

Artificially high thresholds for getting a party represented can cause vote splitting to become an issue even in a proportional list system.

IIRC this has actually been an issue in... I think it was Poland, as of late, where their right-wing party got seats from left-wing party infighting and one of the splinters not meeting the threshold?

The threshold for a party to get seats in the US House in a national proportional list system (what I've been advocating) should be at most 0.230% (and there's potential for it to be as low as 0.115% depending on how rounding works).
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
Many of the "haves" keep telling each other they are "haves" because they are the smartest and best. So they think they will continue to get away with what they're doing forever. These are the same people who were crowing the laws of the economic business cycles had been repealed and the economy was going to grow forever in 2007.

The "haves" who really are brilliant are the entrepreneurs who got rich creating something new the klepto class were too blind to see coming. If the kleptos had seen it, they would have swept in and bought out Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon in their infancy. Those entrepreneurs are on mostly on the side of the have nots.

Though there is one difference between past revolutions and the current situation. The disparity in arms between what's available to the public and what the military has is far greater than anything in the past.
Pffft. Not even close to true. There were periods when only the elite were allowed to learn to ride horses, only the elite were allowed access to swords, etc.

It's surprisingly easy to build a supply chain for high explosives and armor, or for drones, or for missiles. Jeff Bezos could build an automated army overnight. He was planning to use drones to deliver "packages", IIRC, and some of us started commenting that he would be ahead of the US military's abilities. Throughout the world, rebels can get whatever equipment they need -- *easily*. Russia supplies most of it, though China probably supplies better stuff in some cases.

The US has a lot of guns in circulation, but all the AR-15s in circulation won't stop even a Bradley armored fighting vehicle and F-16s with napalm will wipe you and your entire band of rebels off the map. The only way the rebels would have any chance would be if a significant portion of the military joined the rebels.

Close enough to 100% of the military would.

I did leave out the third part of the recipe for revolution: the "haves" elite treat the ground-level military grunts very, very badly, sending them into mercenary wars for oil (or whatever), lying to them about pay and training (military training isn't considered transferrable to civilian skills outside the military, so it's worthless for your career) and then refusing to treat their service-related medical conditions.

Of course the "haves" did that part of the recipe too!

To the extent to which anyone in the military supported the establishment, I simply point you to the total, utter inability of the US military establishment to win control of anything in the last 80 years. It was defeated in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, in Iraq, everywhere. This is because of an attitude problem and it is unfixable without removing the establishment -- it's the same sort of attitude problem which caused the French King Louis's to lose all their wars of conquest nd to lose in the French Revolution, while the Revolutionary generals started actually doing pretty well, and then Napoleon did very well.

If too many people fought on behalf of the doomed establishment, it would make a big mess of those parts of the US, yes. As the South was destroyed in the Civil War. This is one reason why I'm on a side of the state borders where I think damn near nobody would fight on behalf of the establishment.

We can avoid all of this -- there is a peaceful solution and we can probably get to it -- but we *have* to get the idiot elites out of power -- the ones who are trying to end democracy and accumulate all wealth in their own pockets out of mindless accumulation.

I have referred to Lord Grey before -- his Reform Act calmed things down by introducing more democracy, and by doing so he *prevented* a "French Revolution" from happening in England. If the old Tory aristocratic elite had kept their grip on undemocratic power, there *would* have been a French Revolution scenario in England at the time. The Birmingham Political Union promised it, and they had the manpower. Lord Grey warned the House of Lords about it -- just as Nick Hanauer is warning today's billionaires about it.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Mader Levap
Many of the "haves" keep telling each other they are "haves" because they are the smartest and best. So they think they will continue to get away with what they're doing forever. These are the same people who were crowing the laws of the economic business cycles had been repealed and the economy was going to grow forever in 2007.

The "haves" who really are brilliant are the entrepreneurs who got rich creating something new the klepto class were too blind to see coming. If the kleptos had seen it, they would have swept in and bought out Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon in their infancy. Those entrepreneurs are on mostly on the side of the have nots.

Yep. Nick Hanauer and Tom Steyer are interesting examples.
 
Pffft. Not even close to true. There were periods when only the elite were allowed to learn to ride horses, only the elite were allowed access to swords, etc.

It's surprisingly easy to build a supply chain for high explosives and armor, or for drones, or for missiles. Jeff Bezos could build an automated army overnight. He was planning to use drones to deliver "packages", IIRC, and some of us started commenting that he would be ahead of the US military's abilities. Throughout the world, rebels can get whatever equipment they need -- *easily*. Russia supplies most of it, though China probably supplies better stuff in some cases.

China and Russia probably would pour resources into the weaker side in any US civil war to make it the biggest mess possible, but there would be a shortage of facilities to make munitions and even if high tech weapons were built quickly, the trained military people would have an edge with proven designs and good training.

Close enough to 100% of the military would.

I did leave out the third part of the recipe for revolution: the "haves" elite treat the ground-level military grunts very, very badly, sending them into mercenary wars for oil (or whatever), lying to them about pay and training (military training isn't considered transferrable to civilian skills outside the military, so it's worthless for your career) and then refusing to treat their service-related medical conditions.

Of course the "haves" did that part of the recipe too!

Though these are the same people who have been continually convinced to vote against their best interests for nearly 40 years. They would be using the same Fox News messaging to keep the rank and file sold on their memes. They would gin up something to convince a fair number of people that the rebels are communists or something and need to be fought or the US will turn into Venezuela.

The officer corps has not really been on Trump's side from the beginning, but he's remained popular among the enlisted ranks. That would likely continue with whatever scumbag was the head of the establishment side in a civil war.

To the extent to which anyone in the military supported the establishment, I simply point you to the total, utter inability of the US military establishment to win control of anything in the last 80 years. It was defeated in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, in Iraq, everywhere. This is because of an attitude problem and it is unfixable without removing the establishment -- it's the same sort of attitude problem which caused the French King Louis's to lose all their wars of conquest nd to lose in the French Revolution, while the Revolutionary generals started actually doing pretty well, and then Napoleon did very well.

The problem has been more political than military. The one time since WW II when the president was wise enough to step back and let the military do their job once a clear goal was set was the first Gulf War. The president did step in to prevent the overthrow of Saddam Hussein because nobody could come up with a decent scenario for what comes next, so the allies established a containment policy. Clinton was smart enough to continue that policy, but GW's people weren't and it turned into the mess daddy Bush's people knew it would become.

The NATO occupation of the former Yugoslavia turned out well too. When al Qaeda tried to recruit Muslims in the Balkans they got nowhere because very few Muslims there had problems with the west due to the well run occupation.

Too often in the last 75 years the politicians have decided to play general and screwed everything up. The military did not want to go into Iraq in 2002 because they knew it was not winnable, but when Shinseki presented what he thought they'd need to succeed he was fired.

The quote is attributed to the movie The Princess Bride, but "never get involved in a land war in Asia" goes back much further. That continent has eaten one army after another throughout history. The British managed to conquer parts of Asia, but even they struggled in places like Afghanistan. Most of the European settlements in Asia were made without military campaigns. The Europeans started trading posts in India and slowly took over from there.

The wiser heads in the US military have taken that advice to heart in the last decades, but the politicians haven't listened.

If too many people fought on behalf of the doomed establishment, it would make a big mess of those parts of the US, yes. As the South was destroyed in the Civil War. This is one reason why I'm on a side of the state borders where I think damn near nobody would fight on behalf of the establishment.

We can avoid all of this -- there is a peaceful solution and we can probably get to it -- but we *have* to get the idiot elites out of power -- the ones who are trying to end democracy and accumulate all wealth in their own pockets out of mindless accumulation.

I have referred to Lord Grey before -- his Reform Act calmed things down by introducing more democracy, and by doing so he *prevented* a "French Revolution" from happening in England. If the old Tory aristocratic elite had kept their grip on undemocratic power, there *would* have been a French Revolution scenario in England at the time. The Birmingham Political Union promised it, and they had the manpower. Lord Grey warned the House of Lords about it -- just as Nick Hanauer is warning today's billionaires about it.

If the younger generations get their way, we might be able to avoid any bloodshed, though the kleptocrats won't go easily.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
My late godfather Charles Brooks landed on Utah Beach during D-Day, June 6, 1944. For most of the rest of his life he was the editorial cartoonist for the Birmingham (Alabama) News. Despite being a southern conservative, he strongly supported the civil rights movement. He celebrated each June 6th as though it were a national holiday. RIP Chuck and comrades on this 75th anniversary of the Normandy invasion to free Western Europe.

 
The problem has been more political than military. The one time since WW II when the president was wise enough to step back and let the military do their job once a clear goal was set was the first Gulf War. The president did step in to prevent the overthrow of Saddam Hussein because nobody could come up with a decent scenario for what comes next, so the allies established a containment policy. Clinton was smart enough to continue that policy, but GW's people weren't and it turned into the mess daddy Bush's people knew it would become.

I suppose you could call "getting into unwinnable wars" political rather than military. Certainly treating Vietnam as a Soviet proxy war was simply an error. It was actually an anticolonial war for independence, and the US just refused to recognize that Ho Chi Minh represented the popular majority. The US was then the foreign invader, and the small number of Vietnamese who cooperated with the US -- mostly for essentially corrupt reasons -- were unhelpful.

In a French/Russian revolution scenario, you have a similar dynamic. There are a humungous number of veterans who are not going to fight for a corrupt, anti-democratic, kleptocratic, lawless dictator, but would fight for democracy. The small number of people who cooperate with the corrupt regime won't help it much.

In the actual French and Russian revolutions, the revolutionaries didn't have an army to start with, and the government had professional armies. Did it help the government? Not really. It's all about popular support.

I'd say from my study of history that an aggressively competent military elite can rule over an unwilling population if the military elite is (1) at least 10% of the population, (2) treated very well, and (3) very competent. Myanmar's junta might be a current example. As the military gets less competent (the US military is *bad*) it needs to have a larger percentage of the population in order to rule over an unwilling population. There's no way in the US; it's not possible.
 
From main:

That's why I hope to never have to vote for Biden, and why the Democratic primaries are so important.

I have been voting Democrat pretty consistently since around 2000 in large part because what I know the herd will do. Republicans are more disciplined than Democrats, but Democrats now stick together fairly well too. If Congress becomes more progressive, even a somewhat conservative Democratic president will go along with them most of the time.

But the Democrats need to put up someone for president who the middle and right leaning independents will vote for. Biden is that person. He may not be in even the top five choices for most progressive Democrats, but he's far, far better than anybody the Republicans might put up and just about any Democrat as president with a Democratic Congress is far more likely to fix the myriad of problems the current idiot in chief has created.

Bill Weld would never be nominated by the Republicans, but he wouldn't be a bad president. The problem is his party would be putting immense pressure on him to go right.

Biden suffers from still thinking like a Reagan era Democrat. To get anywhere, you need to embrace the idiotic ideas like trickle down economics. That's because the Republicans have controlled the national narrative during the 6th Party System. One party always controls the narrative during a party system. During the 5th the language of the New Deal was the narrative everyone, both Republican and Democrat needed to spout. Most Republicans of that era sounded very liberal by today's measure because the Democrats controlled the narrative.

People like Bernie and AOC are getting traction in their messaging and creating the narratives of the 7th Party System. It helps to get a new president who embodies that message, and it always has been a president who has in the past, but we might end up with a situation like McKinley/Roosevelt where a president from the last party system gets elected and their more progressive VP sweeps in the new era. Biden wouldn't have to die in office for this to happen. A VP who is visible and leading the charge along with a more progressive Congress could make it happen.

I see the signs of it though. By Carter's presidency, the US was feeling that the New Deal era had run its course. Nobody was sure what would come next, but there was a national malaise with the after effects or Watergate, the Vietnam War, the decline of the US as the world economic power (because the US was not the biggest oil producer anymore), and the economy was pretty shaky with very high inflation.

Reagan found a message that sold well and started a new party system era. The background situation is different, but many people are feeling very similarly to the late 70s. There is a feeling of political malaise and it's time for something new. I didn't know what that was going to be until I saw the Bernie phenomenon in 2016 followed by the 2018 wave. Liberalism is back in a new form.

Biden may not be fully on board with AOC and Bernie, but he won't resist a move in that direction much if it looks like it will help the country. And Biden can help bring along those who want change but are a bit scared of AOC and Bernie. That's a lot of the center and right of center.

My late godfather Charles Brooks landed on Utah Beach during D-Day, June 6, 1944. For most of the rest of his life he was the editorial cartoonist for the Birmingham (Alabama) News. Despite being a southern conservative, he strongly supported the civil rights movement. He celebrated each June 6th as though it were a national holiday. RIP Chuck and comrades on this 75th anniversary of the Normandy invasion to free Western Europe.


One of my father's best friends was commander of the 165th Signal Corp Photo Company at Omaha Beach. He lost a leg there.
Herman V. Wall - Wikipedia

I just found he has a Facebook page dedicated to him too. At the time of the D-Day invasion my father was preparing to transfer from Hollandia to Biak in New Guinea. He was attached to a tactical reconnaissance B-25 squadron that was usually the first bomber unit to move in after an invasion in the SW Pacific. My father met Wall when he was a student at Art Center before the war.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: neroden
Status
Not open for further replies.