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In addition to some of the back and forth above, we seem to be going through a lot of sins of the past with race, the #metoo movement, and some confusing tweets about sexual abuse and access to classified information, of all things. Though biased as an academic and proud of my alma mater, transparency is the best disinfectant as someone has said.

Cf: MIT class reveals, explores Institute’s connections to slavery

Plato reports Socrates claimed at his trial "the unexamined life is not worth living." We'll get over this in time, but some of the rhetoric will be un-tasty.
 
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This is too rich for the Macro thread but the continuing conundrum for pundits about Trump's deaf ear to the danger of meddling in our politics raises some questions. A good example is this by a distinguished observer of presidents who spent four years in Moscow as bureau chief for the Washington Post.

Trump’s Conspicuous Silence Leaves a Struggle Against Russia Without a Leader

In light of the recent indictment of Russians and their corporations by Mueller, I would ask: "Did the president violate US law by not registering as a foreign agent (lobbyist) and does that explain his silence on this matter?" Is this why Bannon reportedly said the Trump Tower meeting with Russians was "treason?"
 
TMCers interested in politics or sports should consult Nate Silver's

FiveThirtyEight

Especially interesting are two items from today:

One is a graphic showing the amazingly fast pace of the Mueller investigation compared to other past scandal investigations. Incredibly fast, which is probably understandable given the seriousness of the intervention and its success.

The second is a stab at assessing the electoral impact of Russian meddling in comparison to other factors. He points out a number of considerations and assesses each. The Comey intervention's impact was a discrete action with public opinion measures on each side of the event so probably had more measurable effect than Russian meddling. Russian meddling extended over an extended time frame and was multifaceted so hard to measure. The effort of both the Trump and Clinton campaigns to sway opinion was vastly better funded and many orders of magnitude of human effort, and perhaps talent, than the Russian campaign. Finally, there is Clinton herself. She was a markedly unpopular person in her own right, the black vote diminished because it was more solid under Obama, and finally her electoral strategy was dumb.
 
TMCers interested in politics or sports should consult Nate Silver's

FiveThirtyEight

Especially interesting are two items from today:

One is a graphic showing the amazingly fast pace of the Mueller investigation compared to other past scandal investigations. Incredibly fast, which is probably understandable given the seriousness of the intervention and its success.

The second is a stab at assessing the electoral impact of Russian meddling in comparison to other factors. He points out a number of considerations and assesses each. The Comey intervention's impact was a discrete action with public opinion measures on each side of the event so probably had more measurable effect than Russian meddling. Russian meddling extended over an extended time frame and was multifaceted so hard to measure. The effort of both the Trump and Clinton campaigns to sway opinion was vastly better funded and many orders of magnitude of human effort, and perhaps talent, than the Russian campaign. Finally, there is Clinton herself. She was a markedly unpopular person in her own right, the black vote diminished because it was more solid under Obama, and finally her electoral strategy was dumb.

With all due respect Professor, there is just too much irony in a paragraph focused on both election influence and the things that made Clinton unpopular not to respond - particularly because I have never seen these two topics discussed together. With only another sentence or two you could have created a pretty neat endless loop of the two subjects by adding how unpopular - no, more like offensive that it was to many potential voters of all parties that she tied her cart to Henry Kissinger - seeking his approval, support, and mentorship (to include photo ops of her sitting in his lap) as the person she felt should help continue to shape foreign policy under her administration if elected. Well....he was certainly good at influencing foreign elections on a scale we have not seen since. But how many millions of innocent civilians across the globe might still be alive if he had only tried to use a $100,000 Facebook ad to influence those elections instead of the CIA.
 
Russian meddling extended over an extended time frame and was multifaceted so hard to measure. The effort of both the Trump and Clinton campaigns to sway opinion was vastly better funded and many orders of magnitude of human effort, and perhaps talent, than the Russian campaign.

Respectfully @Intl Professor, money spent by Trump and Clinton campaigns on TV should not be compared to Russian funds spent on manipulating social media to influence the U.S. election. The true scope and impact of those efforts are only now being reported in detail.
The indictment brought by Mueller late last week had much new detail..

See new article in Wired for a good summary/overview:
Did Russia Affect the 2016 Election? It’s Now Undeniable

From Politifact.com :
"The scale of Moscow’s efforts during the 2016 campaign is staggering: More than 150 million people were likely exposed to Russian disinformation on Facebook in the two-year period before the vote, the company said. Much of this material isn’t fact-check-able per se, but it continues to fuel greater polarization."
 
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I must have been unclear in my previous post. The summary is Silver's view of Russian meddling and his own initial attempt to weight causes of Clinton's defeat. There are a lot of other analyses heavily weighting her failure to campaign in some states. Both Silver and I marvel at the stunning effectiveness of the Russian campaign and recognize it as a major evil because it was so well executed and with relatively few resources. Silver is a statistics genius so he looks for data to assess his judgments. I tend to moralize and construct views from political philosophers and some practical experience.

The Buddha says we are responsible for ourselves and much of our misery comes out of ignorance. When we incorporate into our thinking all of the contrary views we also come to grips with our own responsibility for a miserable world. I look forward to the day, soon I hope, when the American people come to grips with our responsibility to take elections seriously and inform ourselves fully about the consequences of our voting. We must remember Russia's success was mostly because of our fractured society to begin with. The seed of evil must reach fertile ground before it can flower.

Here's a mea culpa: Clinton constantly referred to policy papers on her web site. I never read them, and I'm about as diligent a political junkie as one can find.

Were she wise, especially after the convention, she would have emphasized the danger of income inequality, how government perpetuates it, the error of her husband's kissing up to billionaires as he moved the Democratic Party to the right in seeking middle ground, yada, yada. The platform was modified slightly because of Sanders, but she did not understand where we were headed and was perceived as beholden to Wall Street.

Of course there are structural problems impeding peoples' access to information and we are deficient in schooling for citizenship, but we must admire those brave and articulate high schoolers who are not mincing words or intellectual talent when describing their disappointment at "see no evil politicians." Conjoined with the #metoo movement, the women's march, and labor groups. these students show we have a chance to clean the Augean stables of our minds and Congress in 2018. When these tributaries of the river of change result in a powerful movement we shall all prosper—but it requires hard work and patience.

With respect, below are the last two paragraphs of Silver's assessment.

"But if it’s hard to prove anything about Russian interference, it’s equally hard to disprove anything: The interference campaign could easily have had chronic, insidious effects that could be mistaken for background noise but which in the aggregate were enough to swing the election by 0.8 percentage points toward Trump — not a high hurdle to clear because 0.8 points isn’t much at all.

"Perhaps there are more clever methodologies that one could undertake. For instance, if we knew which states the efforts were concentrated in, we might be able to make a few additional inferences. Maybe some of that information will come to light as the result of Mueller’s probe and further investigative reporting. For the time being, however, we’re still somewhat in the dark."
 
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The Buddha says we are responsible for ourselves and much of our misery comes out of ignorance................ the error of her husband's kissing up to billionaires as he moved the Democratic Party to the right

........and Lao Tzu reminds us in the Tao Te Ching that 'if you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading'. Yes, Bill moved the party to the right, kissing up to billionaires as you described. And he set the direction for the DNC that it did not ever deviate from once down that road. And that direction led to his own wife losing the election to a billionaire because the party he had been elected to represent felt abandoned by change in direction. He was not careful, and Lao Tzu was right. The DNC never changed directions and they ended up where they were headed all along. Irony once again prevailed. And once again you could have very neatly wrapped the end of your post back up with your comments in a nice endless loop.

But then the Buddha also warns us of ego. No issues there with the Clintons or Trump, huh? Thanks for bringing the Buddha into your discussions. Your wife has been a good influence on you, hasn't she?
 
This thread on this forum is a dead end. Ill be back when Trump is impeached or re-elected. Given the focus by Dems on Russia, it does not seem like they understand why they lost. Whether you like or hate Trump, his presidency is further proof that Dems do not understand why they lost.
 
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With all due respect Professor, there is just too much irony in a paragraph focused on both election influence and the things that made Clinton unpopular not to respond - particularly because I have never seen these two topics discussed together. With only another sentence or two you could have created a pretty neat endless loop of the two subjects by adding how unpopular - no, more like offensive that it was to many potential voters of all parties that she tied her cart to Henry Kissinger - seeking his approval, support, and mentorship (to include photo ops of her sitting in his lap) as the person she felt should help continue to shape foreign policy under her administration if elected. Well....he was certainly good at influencing foreign elections on a scale we have not seen since. But how many millions of innocent civilians across the globe might still be alive if he had only tried to use a $100,000 Facebook ad to influence those elections instead of the CIA.

There are at least two kinds of power theorists.

When transitioning from mechanical engineering, my undergraduate major, to social science I took graduate seminars at Harvard in the summers of '58 and '59. One of the four seminars was a course in Theories of International Politics taught by the great power theorist, Hans Morgenthau, whose writings along with others, including George Kennan, reoriented scholarship in the United States toward the quest for power in international politics as opposed to searchers for peace in the interwar period called "idealists." The latter emphasized international law. To some extent the orientation of scholars in this debate was opportunistic in that politicians were searching for academic support, as were the academics themselves, that fitted what were perceived as problems in their respective times. Isolationist America became globalistic. We are now undergoing another whim-wham because of the Iraq War and other interventions.

Morgenthau was always consistent in class and later when he publicly resigned as a consultant to the Pentagon during the Vietnam War years. He asserted there is a moral element in defining politics as the quest for power, "it must always be expedient." The Vietnam War was inexpedient from the standpoint of American national interest.

Kissinger's expedience, in retrospect so similar to Trump's, seems to apply only to what is opportunistic for him.

I think it was an in-depth article in the New Yorker where we learn Kissinger's first contact with our military in Germany was as a translator or propagandist urging his fellow Germans to cooperate with the Allied forces. His rise to prominence as an advisor to the Pentagon came with his monumental, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, in which he touted the use of these weapons in so-called "limited engagements." Later he disavowed such use. As National Security Advisor to Nixon and later Secretary of State, he advocated so-called "triangular" diplomacy among the three great powers, China, Russia, and the United States. He must have viewed himself as a kind of Metternich, the key player in his doctoral dissertation.

Kissinger, Metternich, and Realism

Raymond Garthoff was a key advisor to Kissinger during negotiations for SALTI. He's written books highly critical of Kissinger, especially his naiveté in dealing with the Russians. One easy verification is the assumption the Russians' understandable concern about nuclear weapons could be leveraged into a more moderate position on Vietnam, human rights, or interventions in Eastern Europe or the Middle East.

American foreign policy will continue to be mucked up by advisors who don't know excrement from Shinola, as my dad used to say, about foreign countries which follow their own national interest. When great powers try to walk on water they should take a careful look at where the stones are in each step.

By default in homeland security we need the wisdom of teenagers to provide peace at home, first. Likewise the minor powers, like North and South Korea, are leading to peace on the peninsula by doing an end run around the United States, with the cooperation of China, Russia, and Japan. We should wish them well, but Pence seems to be upholding the status quo as a good soldier for Trump. We need a bully to bully. Unfortunately for Trump, it appears the new Kim is smarter about his country's national interest, and knows how to fold when the media is focussing world attention on the Olympics. A sideshow, maybe, but still....

My two graduate mentors in U.S. diplomatic history, one at Colgate, the other at Claremont, both stressed the U.S. hardly made a mistake in international affairs, until the Spanish American War. There must be a corollary to Lord Acton: Great powers are corrupted by their great power, it blinds them to reality. For them perception is not reality, to turn a phrase from an enlightened scholar.
 
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Translation: "I'm not likely to find much support for my viewpoint so I'll keep saying I won't take part in this thread, but can't help myself from popping back in to tell you why I'm not here"

Im not likely to find any support. The bias here is massively waited in one direction. No reason to ruffle feathers of people who have no intent of being open minded. I agree that I am not very open minded either, but I am not one who believes the election was decided by Russian facebook trolls.
 
........and Lao Tzu reminds us in the Tao Te Ching that 'if you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading'. Yes, Bill moved the party to the right, kissing up to billionaires as you described. And he set the direction for the DNC that it did not ever deviate from once down that road. And that direction led to his own wife losing the election to a billionaire because the party he had been elected to represent felt abandoned by change in direction. He was not careful, and Lao Tzu was right. The DNC never changed directions and they ended up where they were headed all along. Irony once again prevailed. And once again you could have very neatly wrapped the end of your post back up with your comments in a nice endless loop.

But then the Buddha also warns us of ego. No issues there with the Clintons or Trump, huh? Thanks for bringing the Buddha into your discussions. Your wife has been a good influence on you, hasn't she?

Your insight into my wife's value is but a single centimeter's penetration into the fog of modesty she clothes herself.

My favorite saying of Lao Tse (the spelling betrays my ignorance) is: "We keep only those things we are willing to let go." An old take on recent learning from Buddha the importance of detaching from objects of desire.
 
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Im not likely to find any support. The bias here is massively waited in one direction. No reason to ruffle feathers of people who have no intent of being open minded. I agree that I am not very open minded either, but I am not one who believes the election was decided by Russian facebook trolls.

Progress. At least we all agree you are close minded. Those of us paying attention to objective facts - like the 37 pages of them delivered last week by conservative Republican Robert Mueller, are somewhat less close minded and are well aware there were multiple reasons Trump won. The Electoral College went to Trump by only 80K votes in 3 key states. Phony Facebook news stories ultimately were seen by tens of millions who get their 'news' from Facebook. So it is not a bit far fetched that Russian social media manipulation may have provided those 80,000 swing voters and Trump's margin of victory.

What is really sad is the number of people who seem happy to see the country undermined by Russia and its Constitutional separation of powers and other rule of law safeguards trampled to cover it up. Just as long if it means they will pay less in taxes.
 
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Respectfully @Intl Professor, money spent by Trump and Clinton campaigns on TV should not be compared to Russian funds spent on manipulating social media to influence the U.S. election. The true scope and impact of those efforts are only now being reported in detail.
The indictment brought by Mueller late last week had much new detail..

See new article in Wired for a good summary/overview:
Did Russia Affect the 2016 Election? It’s Now Undeniable

From Politifact.com :
"The scale of Moscow’s efforts during the 2016 campaign is staggering: More than 150 million people were likely exposed to Russian disinformation on Facebook in the two-year period before the vote, the company said. Much of this material isn’t fact-check-able per se, but it continues to fuel greater polarization."

Though Silver takes a statistical view and weights the Comey statement critical, he does mention Hillary's weakesses as a campaigner. With specific mention of states where a shift of 80,000 votes would have changed the Electoral College outcome, interviews with local party leaders and other evidence is fully covered in the following:

Indictment Leaves No Doubt: Russia Backed Trump. But Was It the Difference?

Edit: Still, there are the famous words of Whittier in Maud Muller. (Added recently.)
 
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Though Silver takes a statistical view and weights the Comey statement critical, he does mention Hillary's weakesses as a campaigner. With specific mention of states where a shift of 80,000 votes would have changed the Electoral College outcome, interviews with local party leaders and other evidence is fully covered in the following:
Indictment Leaves No Doubt: Russia Backed Trump. But Was It the Difference?
Edit: Still, there are the famous words of Whittier in Maud Muller. (Added recently.)

A good balanced NYT piece that is nuanced and presents quite a few viewpoints. Bottom line is that if Clinton had fewer deficiencies and mistakes she would have won anyway. We can't know for certain how many swing votes went to Trump thanks to Russian social media manipulation. But that manipulation touched millions and could have been the margin, especially combined with Comey's interference in highlighting spurious new emails a week before election day.
 
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We worry about a lot of things. The market, AI run amok, the idiocy of our leaders, the younger generation and guns. Sometimes I am amused by the search for intelligent life beyond our planet when there are so few signs on Earth of human intelligence, especially in the aggregate. Consequently, too close attention to electoral opinion exaggerates the trend to mediocrity in democracies as our founders worried.

Occasionally there are glimmers of hope. One example is the recent shooting at another school.

After their teacher fires a gun at school, Georgia students use opportunity to challenge Trump’s proposal

Here is a key paragraph where I have bolded the especially touching wisdom.

"To all Dalton High School students: I am so sorry," tweeted one Parkland student. "We are together in this. Your school is a living example of why teachers shouldn't be armed. If anyone needs someone to talk to, please dm [private message] me. I'm here for you."
 
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So you think a trade war against the whole of the world is going to be easy to win? Oh my.

The only thing with trade wars that is easy is that all sides will suffer, and as this is US vs World its easy to see which side will suffer most.

There is not going to be a trade war, hence the winning. I agree that if the world wanted to band together to wage was against the US, the US would suffer. It's a good thing they don't also want their own people to suffer for no actual gain aside from spite. My guess is that this tiny tariffs are just a negotiating ploy, because tariffs never work. But in a negotiating, you must believe the otherwise is willing to do what they say they are going to do. If governments are subsidizing steel and then dumping that steel in the market to harm competitors and control the market, then it's the responsibility of your government to protect you against that because you have no recourse against a foreign governments because you don't have any aircraft carriers. Again, these are highly Targeted and fairly small tariffs historically. Washing machines and solar? Clearly targeted at China and Mexico in preparation for NAFTA and TTP which Trump pulled is out of to get a better deal and protection against dumping.

Clearly the market figured this out yesterday the same way I did, which is why I was buying calls all day while others where buying puts.

You don't have to like Trump to understand what he is trying to do. He needs to have leverage that is real or there is no negotiating. There has been a lot of talk and rarely any action on things like dumping, currency manipulation and IP theft. This president is crazy enough to actually do something about it and China and Mexico know that now.

We have been taking it lying down for too long. We can't afford it anymore with 20 going on 30 trillion in debt. The alternative is actually worse. Inflation and or weaker currency. Both would be very bad for us and the rest of the world.
 
[QUOTE="Reciprocity, post: 2594565, member: 58331"

You don't have to like Trump to understand what he is trying to do. He needs to have leverage that is real or there is no negotiating. There has been a lot of talk and rarely any action on things like dumping, currency manipulation and IP theft. This president is crazy enough to actually do something about it and China and Mexico know that now.
.[/QUOTE]
Well said!
 
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