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Anyone else see that consistent increase in volatility starting in end of 2016...
...when Trump was elected into office compared to Obama's run as POTUS?
I mean I actually do agree that carrying a dangerous disease IS a clear and present danger, you're right about that. I just had to get on my free speech soap box.
The Fed had interest rates pegged at zero the entire eight years of Obama's presidency.
The Fed has tried to normalize rates under Trump but has had to walk back them on more than occasion. This is the volatility you're seeing for the last three years. With more to come I suspect as the Fed will have to intervene once again.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Norbert
TSLA will win
The long term effect of Trump might be increasing dislike for capitalism (among those who also care for other things than S&P 500).
Something to consider ...
For those old enough to remember, Jimmy Carter won the presidency on somewhat similar grounds.
Bernie 2020?
Looking VERY good for Bernie, especially considering polling vs Biden for these 2 states
Awesome additional news that Buttigieg dropped out
I predict Bernie will get over 50% of the delegates nationwide
Awesome additional news that Buttigieg dropped out
I predict Bernie will get over 50% of the delegates nationwide
Something to consider ...
My SO is an attorney and one of her strengths is parsing laws. She is outstanding at issue spotting. We've had a lot of discussions about the constitution around here.
In many jurisdictions "assault" is defined as non-consensual touching someone else. Spitting on someone counts in this regard.
Under Washington law throwing a cat at someone can be considered assault with a deadly weapon. The statute defines a deadly weapon as anything that can cause death or serious injury and because a panicked cat thrown in someone's face could conceivably blind them, that's assault with a deadly weapon. She had a case where someone accused of DV had tossed the family cat at his wife during an argument and got charged with assault with a deadly weapon (the cat and wife were unharmed).
There is also the concept of escalating a confrontation. If someone punches you and you punch back, that will probably be ruled self defense, but if you pull out a knife and stab them, that is escalating and you're probably going down for assault. To spit on someone deliberately during a verbal confrontation is escalating too.
At least that's how I understand how the law works from our discussions. And the exact laws vary from state to state.
As far as what measures to take in time of crisis is something we've been fighting about for 240 years. I doubt the measures China has been taking would fly in the US, though some would be quite happy with it.
I've been doing some reading about COVID-19 and coronaviruses in general. Before SARS coronaviruses were known, but not studied much. All the strains in humans caused nothing more severe than the symptoms of the common cold and the other known viruses were fairly benign viruses in animals. What they found with SARS and later MERS was that is affected some people so badly that it put them in life threatening danger and others had a mild cold or nothing at all. The South Koreans are going nuts testing people and they are finding quite a few people infected with COVID-19 who have no symptoms and they don't appear to get sick.
The paper I scanned yesterday on genetic vulnerability to SARS was from 2008. Back then they were coming to the conclusion that there was some kind of genetic vulnerability to SARS, but they hadn't found the gene or exact mechanism at that point. I haven't had a chance to research much further. More is probably know now.
The State of Washington announced today that COVID-19 has probably been in the wild in WA state for about 6 weeks already.
Four states report more COVID-19 cases; silent Washington spread suspected
It appears that most people who have had it over that time were not that sick with it. So it didn't appear on the radar. Now that it's spread, the people getting very sick are appearing in the news. If a large percentage of those getting the virus have having mild or no symptoms, it means the virus is far more wide spread than thought which is a bigger risk for those vulnerable, but it also means quite a few people will have COVID-19 and never realize it.
My SO and I have had a weird, mild virus over the last week. It's a bit like a mild cold. I kicked it in a day, and it's lingering with her. The weird thing with her is she's never had a mild cold in her life. Most of the time when she feels a cold coming on she goes to bed early, gets a bit more sleep and it's gone the next day, but if a cold develops she gets very sick. A "normal" cold for her is worse than the worst one I ever had. She almost always develops bronchitis and has had pneumonia a few times. She took the bar exam while recovering from pneumonia. Her first line of defense from disease is outstanding, but if anything gets past the first layer she's vulnerable.
This time she has all the hallmarks of a mild cold, which she's never had in her life up to this point.
Maybe it is just a mild rinovirus, or something else, but we did get sick just before WA state announced it's been in the wild in the state for 6 weeks now. It's impossible to test right now, but if there is a voluntary test available at some point I might get tested to see if I've had it. Just an odd data point at this point.
If the genetic vulnerability to coronaviruses holds true for this outbreak, only a segment of the population is at serious risk. But for them it's like someone with a fatal allergy to bees getting locked in a room with a bee hive. We don't know how many people are at risk, it could be a fairly large segment of the population, or it could be relatively small. It does appear the vulnerable population is larger than with MERS or SARS.
I'm seeing signs of Bernie's appeal waning. He is still polling strongly in TX and CA which will give him a lot of delegates, but his doubling down on the defending Castro and other extreme socialists has turned off some people. There have been some prominent people switching from supporting Bernie in the last few days. With Buttigieg and Steyer out and Bloomberg fading, the moderate lane is coalescing around Biden.
It's probably going to come down to Biden and Bernie. If you look at the delegate totals thus far in terms of moderate vs liberal, Bernie has 60, Warren has 8. Biden has 54, Klobuchar has 7, and Buttigieg has 26. That's 88 moderate vs 68 liberal. If that pattern continues with Biden getting all the moderate delegates, Biden will have a majority going into the convention. It's also common for candidates to pledge their delegates to another candidate at the convention to prevent a second ballot. It's almost certain that Buttigieg and Klobachar will likely pledge their delegates to Biden. In 2008 Hillary pledged hers to Obama and in 2016 Bernie pledged his to Hillary.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Contrary to media spin Sanders didn't defend Castro, he made factual statements about a few areas of improvement he implemented. Things are rarely just black or white.
Paracelsus
Active Member
almost 25,000 people at the Bernie rally in LA tonight
Roughly 10,000 attended his rally in San Jose earlier today. 4,000 people attended the Bernie rally in Virginia yesterday following his rally in Boston where over 13,000 attended in the 13 degree weather:
Meanwhile, in Selma today:
And in Minnesota today:
The Democratic Party is rapidly changing right before the closed eyes of the DNC
Roughly 10,000 attended his rally in San Jose earlier today. 4,000 people attended the Bernie rally in Virginia yesterday following his rally in Boston where over 13,000 attended in the 13 degree weather:
Meanwhile, in Selma today:
And in Minnesota today:
The Democratic Party is rapidly changing right before the closed eyes of the DNC
The Progressive vs Moderate ‘block’ has been refuted as simplistic & illogical in poll after poll after poll.
Bernie is often the second choice for voters after their ‘moderate’ first choice candidate
To those not in the Bernie choir and aren't adept at parsing nuanced intellectual arguments all heard him praise Castro.
I've sensed a shift in the last 1-2 weeks. We'll see what happens.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
People often hear what they want to hear, especially when reinforced by the media, but that just means their minds were already closed. What they think they hear doesn't change the truth.
Sanders projected over 300 more delegates than Biden
Election Update: South Carolina — And A Bunch Of New Polls — Are Showing A Close Super Tuesday Race
With Buttigieg dropping out and likely endorsing Biden, the math gets complicated. Klobuchar could do the same Wednesday after she wins Minnesota. At that point, Warren becomes the kingmaker.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/
Exhibit A. Although “he’s a commie” would have made it ‘Exhibit A+’......
I will agree with you there - the more uniformed & ignorant the populace, the more right wing the government.
Heck even the peer reviewed research on IQ & education field/level suggests it
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