Mercedes CEO Dieter Zetsche looks at the future

[AnxietyRanger]

bluenation, my assumption is that by TM fandom you mean people who like Tesla Motors. I am not aware of these people being 'a laughing stock' amongst car or any other circles.

Auzie, I would expect bluenation to refer to this:

Yep, classic Innovator's Dilemma material. He will very successfully manage the company to great profitability before it abruptly dies.

Emphasis mine. Expectation that Mercedes will abruptly die makes very little logical sense, even at the take-off of EVs. No?

But then, Doug_G certainly may have been just playful with that comment. I don't know. Just trying to help you understand why TMC feels OTT to some of us, sometimes...

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Most people should recognize that electric motors do not have disadvantages relative to an ICE. Instant torque, low internal friction, 1 moving part, no oil changes, extremely high power to weight and power to volume ratio, flat torque curve, instantaneous modulation, reliability, etc. are all HUGE advantages that make an electric motor far superior than even the best ICE engine. The limiting factor is really battery (range and continuous power output) and cooling...those are issues related to the electric drivetrain system, not the motor.

That's probably what he meant.

As I ponder in my signature text, indeed the beauty of the Tesla approach (as most here know better than I do) is the fact that it looses all that ICE complexity. DZ is a smart guy, and Mercedes is more progressive and experimental than many of their local competitors (looking at you vorsprung!), I'm pretty sure he knows that too. So, I agree his emphasis on the issues is to do with the practicality of EVs - which includes not only the range, but slowness of charging. Continuous power output, that may not really be such an issue for a volume maker like Mercedes...

Of course, part of DZs commentary is making sure he doesn't badmouth their current product. So that, naturally, twists his words somewhat I'm sure. Like in the recent Porsche example, although that was far more glaring and cringeworthy...

 

[ATC@LWSK]

Most people should recognize that electric motors do not have disadvantages relative to an ICE. Instant torque, low internal friction, 1 moving part, no oil changes, extremely high power to weight and power to volume ratio, flat torque curve, instantaneous modulation, reliability, etc. are all HUGE advantages that make an electric motor far superior than even the best ICE engine. The limiting factor is really battery (range and continuous power output) and cooling...those are issues related to the electric drivetrain system, not the motor.

Todd, with your permission, I'd like to use this great summary as my signature, with due credit to you, of course.

Thanks.

 

[RobStark]

My take on VW/Audi/Porsche is they have a lot of tech and have done quite a bit of R&D (and a mind-boggling number of press releases at Audi), but are waiting for costs to come down before committing. VW does have two pure BEV's for sale now, makes investments in battery tech companies, and they've recently been saying that driving ranges could double in the next two years, and double again shortly after that. (So why would I buy or lease one today, the resale value/residual will be terrible!)

This is what laggards promoting vaporware always say.

Don't buy today's best product because tomorrow we will have a far superior product for less money.

 

[Airx]

The advantages of electric motors over ICE engines is the electric motor is more efficient than ICE to the tune of 80% to 90% where the best ICE efficiency ranges ~20%. The waste heat from the ICE engine requires dedicated cooling for the engine to survive any length of time. The electric motor produces less waste heat that can be metabolized into the motors mass not needing a dedicated cooling system. If the goal is ultimate performance then the added cooling system might need to be added to motor and the battery will also need a more robust cooling system to handle the added heat that will be generated.

 

[Doug_G]

I just moved a bunch of posts to snippiness

 

[scottm]

Mercedes has made a really kick ass EV, look it up on Top Gear. Series 20, Episode 4. SLS AMG electric drive. Short range, due to small battery. But wow!

Also, Mercedes sources parts to Tesla. They have an arrangement, so they are sensitive about comments made toward one another.

They are friendlies.

Mercedes is free to use Tesla patents, as is anybody else. And they just might.

Mercedes knows how to produce cars, in volume, to all world markets. For all purposes.

Just sayin'.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Mercedes has made a really kick ass EV, look it up on Top Gear. Series 20, Episode 4. SLS AMG electric drive. Short range, due to small battery. But wow!

Also, Mercedes sources parts to Tesla. They have an arrangement, so they are sensitive about comments made toward one another.

They are friendlies.

Mercedes is free to use Tesla patents, as is anybody else. And they just might.

Mercedes knows how to produce cars, in volume, to all world markets. For all purposes.

Just sayin'.

+1

Mercedes is also big on other alternative fuel investments, not to combat EVs (looking at you Toyota) but to cater all markets.

 

[rolosrevenge]

I just moved a bunch of posts to snippiness

Aw

 

[EchoDelta]

Mercedes has made a really kick ass EV, look it up on Top Gear. Series 20, Episode 4. SLS AMG electric drive. Short range, due to small battery. But wow!

Also, Mercedes sources parts to Tesla. They have an arrangement, so they are sensitive about comments made toward one another.

They are friendlies.

Mercedes is free to use Tesla patents, as is anybody else. And they just might.

Mercedes knows how to produce cars, in volume, to all world markets. For all purposes.

Just sayin'.

I am driving a B-Class EV and I can say it is a fantastic EV specimen. Not intergalactic spaceboat of light and wonder-class, but still sweet. Instead of a luckdragon porking a Ferrari it's like it made out with a Golf.
(Reference What it's like to own a Tesla Model S - A cartoonist's review of his magical space car - The Oatmeal) nice unique things like the radar-based Regen show they are not just spectators.

If MB did a EV SLK, or small SUV with ~35..40 kWh batts I think they'd sell like hot cakes.

Re . Innovators dilemma I think MB has a good albeit conservative strategy. Partner/help the spearhead and use some side effects to dip your toes in the water before the others pull way ahead. Much better strategy than denial or Toyota like shenanigans.

But I still think Tesla will pull waaay ahead before anyone else notices, on many fronts. I agree w other posters that rapid charging infrastructure, autopilot/robotics and drivetrain hard&soft are tough barriers of entry.

 

[Johan]

Mercedes has made a really kick ass EV, look it up on Top Gear. Series 20, Episode 4. SLS AMG electric drive. Short range, due to small battery. But wow!

Also, Mercedes sources parts to Tesla. They have an arrangement, so they are sensitive about comments made toward one another.

They are friendlies.

Mercedes is free to use Tesla patents, as is anybody else. And they just might.

Mercedes knows how to produce cars, in volume, to all world markets. For all purposes.

Just sayin'.

This is all very true.

I've been thinking a bit about why Mercedes sold off its shares in Tesla in the second half of 2014 and why Harald Kroeger, who had been on the Board of directors since 2011, stepped down. I Think it is because Mercedes started seeing Tesla as a competitor and no longer as this small but interesting startup where they could collaborate around new technology. I think Mercedes may be a lot more serious about EVs than some people on this board seem to think.

 

[Auzie]

I've been thinking a bit about why Mercedes sold off its shares in Tesla in the second half of 2014 and why Harald Kroeger, who had been on the Board of directors since 2011, stepped down. I Think it is because Mercedes started seeing Tesla as a competitor and no longer as this small but interesting startup where they could collaborate around new technology. I think Mercedes may be a lot more serious about EVs than some people on this board seem to think.

Perhaps, that could be possible, Mercedes could be serious about evs.

I don't get it why would NA CEO suggest otherwise. I would not second guess his words, or any other CEOs words.

Interesting interview with Mercedes CEO Dieter Zetsche clearly reveals the attitudes and plans for the business future. DZ makes some remarks on Tesla and its role in shaping that future.

DZ considers Tesla technology to be the technology of the future, however, the disadvantages of a higher price and range anxiety will considerably delay the technology becoming mainstream.

DZ also sees ice surviving for a long long time and eventually becoming extinct. His view of the future includes the prevalence of hybrids with relevant number of bevs after some time.

DZ seems to have a lot of respect for Tesla

DZ also stated that Mercedes is certain not to build Tesla fighter. DZ goal for Mercedes is to be number one.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Perhaps, that could be possible, Mercedes could be serious about evs.

I don't get it why would NA CEO suggest otherwise. I would not second guess his words, or any other CEOs words.

Why wouldn't he say otherwise? Why would they want to position MB as a Tesla challenger with some hypothetical future product... Even if they were building one? It is Business 101 not to Osbourne your current products.

When it comes to reading corporate communications, reading between the lines is mandatory. This goes for Tesla too. Business has current and future interests, communicating about the latter does not always (mostly?) serve the former. That doesn't automatically mean the latter isn't happening.

In the case of MB, I think we have sufficient other proof to say they do take EVs and alternate fuels more seriously than your average car company does.

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This is all very true.

I've been thinking a bit about why Mercedes sold off its shares in Tesla in the second half of 2014 and why Harald Kroeger, who had been on the Board of directors since 2011, stepped down. I Think it is because Mercedes started seeing Tesla as a competitor and no longer as this small but interesting startup where they could collaborate around new technology. I think Mercedes may be a lot more serious about EVs than some people on this board seem to think.

Interesting analogy (although the ages of the companies are relatively reversed): Google too had a member on Apple's board prior to introducing Android (as we know it today) to compete with iPhone. He too stepped down when the conflict of interest became large.

Thank goodness we don't have to count on mere vorsprung to bring us German EV goodness.

 

[AustinPowers]

Thank goodness we don't have to count on mere vorsprung to bring us German EV goodness.

Forget "Vorsprung". Of all our German car companies I understand Audi's vision the least. Especially when considering that they are part of VW group, with VW itself taking BEVs quite seriously.

I am sure Mercedes will offer an appealing BEV in the not too distant future, possibly in time for some Model 3 competition. Mercedes really are serious about alternative methods of propulsion, but not just BEVs. BMW has also taken more than just a small first step. The investment in the i-brand is more than just a compliance effort. VW also offers two very good BEVs right now, and it doesn't look as if in the future that will become less.

Audi otoh, meh. I just don't know. They could at least have made a BEV version of the A3 using e-Golf tech. They are doing it with the e-tron hybrid, so why not go the full monty? Tesla should adopt the "Vorsprung..." tagline :wink:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Forget "Vorsprung". Of all our German car companies I understand Audi's vision the least. Especially when considering that they are part of VW group, with VW itself taking BEVs quite seriously.

I am sure Mercedes will offer an appealing BEV in the not too distant future, possibly in time for some Model 3 competition. Mercedes really are serious about alternative methods of propulsion, but not just BEVs. BMW has also taken more than just a small first step. The investment in the i-brand is more than just a compliance effort. VW also offers two very good BEVs right now, and it doesn't look as if in the future that will become less.

Audi otoh, meh. I just don't know. They could at least have made a BEV version of the A3 using e-Golf tech. They are doing it with the e-tron hybrid, so why not go the full monty? Tesla should adopt the "Vorsprung..." tagline :wink:

Indeed I was being sarcastic - Audi is a big, big disappointment.

 

[WarpedOne]

I think Mercedes may be a lot more serious about EVs than some people on this board seem to think

It is simple: show us definitive signs of seriousness.
What is a great accomplishment for Tesla, may be a big failure for Mercedes.

A new company selling 40k per year is big, Mercedes selling only 40k EVs is sign of "un-seriousness".
It all ends with battery supply: 100k 200miler EVs per year needs 50kWh * 100k = 5GWh worth of cells.
No believing and arm wavering can replace those cells that they cannot buy.
Cells are made in big factories. Where is Mercedes's one? LGChem? Samsung? Panasonic?
They cannot produce 5GWh for VW, Mercedes, Audi, Kia, Fiat and XY. All of them together come to about 1/5 of the number.

At the end it is not lack of fastcharging network, but lack of supply.
Why is Mercedes not building one for their own EVs? Because, they are *not* serious.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I've been thinking a bit about why Mercedes sold off its shares in Tesla in the second half of 2014 and why Harald Kroeger, who had been on the Board of directors since 2011, stepped down. I Think it is because Mercedes started seeing Tesla as a competitor and no longer as this small but interesting startup where they could collaborate around new technology. I think Mercedes may be a lot more serious about EVs than some people on this board seem to think.

Alternative theory: the fluctuating mark-to-market value of those shares was messing up the nice, steady EPS that Daimler likes to present to investors. Realize the gains, eliminate the volatility, but maintain the working relationship with Tesla. Once it sold its stake, Daimler necessarily lost its board seat.

 

[AustinPowers]

Indeed I was being sarcastic - Audi is a big, big disappointment.

I know you meant your remark sarcastically. I just wanted to add how ridiculous I think that slogan now sounds, after Audi has lost it's technological edge over many of the competitors. I would dare say the only area where they still have some advantage is light tech. But even their laser and matrix LED systems aren't without competition any more.

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It is simple: show us definitive signs of seriousness.
What is a great accomplishment for Tesla, may be a big failure for Mercedes.

A new company selling 40k per year is big, Mercedes selling only 40k EVs is sign of "un-seriousness".
It all ends with battery supply: 100k 200miler EVs per year needs 50kWh * 100k = 5GWh worth of cells.
No believing and arm wavering can replace those cells that they cannot buy.
Cells are made in big factories. Where is Mercedes's one? LGChem? Samsung? Panasonic?
They cannot produce 5GWh for VW, Mercedes, Audi, Kia, Fiat and XY. All of them together come to about 1/5 of the number.

At the end it is not lack of fastcharging network, but lack of supply.
Why is Mercedes not building one for their own EVs? Because, they are *not* serious.

You really have an enormous insight into the inner workings of Mercedes et al. I applaud your inside knowledge.

 

[Johan]

I know you meant your remark sarcastically. I just wanted to add how ridiculous I think that slogan now sounds, after Audi has lost it's technological edge over many of the competitors. I would dare say the only area where they still have some advantage is light tech. But even their laser and matrix LED systems aren't without competition any more.

Also don't forget that they are market leaders in BEV press releases

 

[WarpedOne]

You really have an enormous insight into the inner workings of Mercedes et al. I applaud your inside knowledge.

I guess when there is nothing on the outside, one can believe there must be something on the inside.
I try to only see what is there to be seen. And not believe the unseen.

 

[mspohr]

Getting heat out of the motor stator, and that heat causing performance limiting is currently a disadvantage vs. a like-peak-output ICE. An ICE can generally maintain peak output until the gas tank is empty without (too much) damage. It'll get solved, but it's not solved yet.

I don't think that there is a difference here between ICE and EV. Both have to have proper cooling systems. There are certainly many ICE cars which overheat in regular every day use (I passed a few of these stuck on the side of the road going up the Grapevine a few days ago). It's just a matter of designing proper cooling. I just returned from a long drive to Arizona where the outside temperature was 90F to 100F for most of the return trip and driving at 80+mph produced no overheating or power limiting (including the drive from sea level to 4000 ft Fort Tejon summit).
I don't think there is any inherent difference between and ICE and EV in cooling.