Model 3 Beta Prototypes

[Nb1277]

Paulo Santos is short Tesla so I take his Seeking Alpha articles with a grain of salt but this Electrek article confirms that while Tesla has begun producing Model 3 betas, they are doing so a couple months after they had hoped. Does this lend credence to Paulo’s assertions (article) that Model 3 will be late?


Unfortunately, it seems that he may have a point but I’m not sure I agree with the minimum of 6 months late if Tesla is only two months behind their projected beta production schedule? Wouldn’t that, at worst, indicate a slight potential delay?

Discuss

 

[Troy916]

Where did you see that Tesla is a couple months behind their schedule?

 

[Model 3]

Does this lend credence to Paulo’s assertions (article) that Model 3 will be late?

No.

I have not read that article, but I read the one you pointed to on Electrek, and nothing there that indicate that it is been late. If I recall correct Elon mentioned in the Q4 Q&A that they had build some prototypes this year, and had them crash tested. Nowhere have I seen anything about that they was expected to have done this last year (except some forum-members that are impatient to see that they are (winter) testing them).

So no, that they already have build the prototypes is no indication that they will be late. Tesla insured the investors on the Q&A that they was still on route to start production in July, and if Tesla then did know they was late, it would be dangerous to say other-ways on a call with investors.

 

[JeffK]

Ok, so I think Paulo is a slimeball, but I see where he's saying there's not necessarily a beta prototype.

Tesla is making prototypes, yes, but the "beta prototype" is once they've perfected it (including the manufacturing process they are going to initially use) and agreed to call it the "beta prototype". As of Feb 26th they hadn't finalized on calling one the "beta prototype"

 

[03DSG]

Paulo Santos is short Tesla

Ur right. So much so I don't even read him anymore. Possibly a vested interest in 'alternative facts'?

 

[sports4eva115]

most of the short-tesla folks on SA pry into the tiniest details to find chinks in Tesla's armor, and while that's annoying as hell it does help readers get a grasp of things Elon isn't going to start tweeting about. Like OP said, with plenty of salt.

 

[Nb1277]

Good input all. I agree @sports4eva115 , it's good to see both sides of "extremes" as SA does seem to be quite negative and most f us (myself included) are optimistic on Tesla. Further good news, @Troy916 and @Model 3 posts prompted me to re-read Paulo's statement and even he didn't state that the plan was to have the betas completed by Dec 31 but rather completion of the beta is a milestone for Elon's options to vest (time frame not stated in the article) and separately that such had not been completed as of Dec 31. Not necessarily a delay.

 

[Haxster]

Alpha vs Beta.

It's my understanding that Alpha protos are mostly complete, non-production products used for internal verification and testing by the manufacturer and selected partners. By this definition, these are the M3s that Tesla is producing now and for at least the next several months.

Betas are generally early production versions and are offered to select employees and customers for early debugging. By this definition, it won't be until at least July before Tesla is producing Beta M3s.

On a related note, one might suggest that all current Tesla owners are Beta testers. (With AP2, I certainly feel like one!)

 

[Sonny Daze]

Betas are generally early production versions and are offered to select employees and customers for early debugging. By this definition, it won't be until at least July before Tesla is producing Beta M3s.

It sounds like they are much closer than that:

“We expect that the next performance milestone to be achieved will be the successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype, which would be achieved upon the determination by our Board of Directors that an eligible prototype has been completed. Candidates for such prototype are among the vehicles that we are currently building as part of our ongoing testing of our Model 3 vehicle design and manufacturing processes.“

 

[Model 3]

... it does help readers get a grasp of things ...

While I can agree that it is an help to read the arguments of people skeptical to the success of Tesla, most of the articles I have seen on SA is from folks trying to earn money on manipulating the price of Tesla shares by spreading fake new, alternative facts and truths that is bend to the unrecognizable. There is no help in reading that stuff. Yes I know, there are a few exceptions from this general rule. From what you posted here this is not one of them....

 

[zenmaster]

Great reads mostly on SA due to the research and typically well reasoned opinions. Even the bears have to justify their stance and while the conclusions may be off, the historical info provided is helpful.

 

[MP3Mike]

Alpha vs Beta.

It's my understanding that Alpha protos are mostly complete, non-production products used for internal verification and testing by the manufacturer and selected partners. By this definition, these are the M3s that Tesla is producing now and for at least the next several months.

Betas are generally early production versions and are offered to select employees and customers for early debugging. By this definition, it won't be until at least July before Tesla is producing Beta M3s.

That may be for some manufacturers, but not for Tesla. From the stock incentives that Elon earned it was obvious that Tesla calls the drivable Model 3s that were shown in March of 2016 the Alpha version, and from the 10-K that was just released the ones they are building right now are the Beta versions.

 

[azred]

Seeking Alpha is actually Finding Stupidity

 

[JeffK]

and from the 10-K that was just released the ones they are building right now are the Beta versions.

Yet the 10-K explicitly said the beta wasn't completed, but might come as a result of the candidate models they are currently building.

There's zero doubt that they're building Model 3 prototypes.

 

[Snow Drift]

Ok ok, just start snapping pics of the Betas in the wild! Us eastcoasters can't wait to see your pics.

 

[alseTrick]

Paulo Santos is short Tesla so I take his Seeking Alpha articles with a grain of salt but this Electrek article confirms that while Tesla has begun producing Model 3 betas, they are doing so a couple months after they had hoped. Does this lend credence to Paulo’s assertions (article) that Model 3 will be late?


Unfortunately, it seems that he may have a point but I’m not sure I agree with the minimum of 6 months late if Tesla is only two months behind their projected beta production schedule? Wouldn’t that, at worst, indicate a slight potential delay?

Discuss

No, it doesn't.

It says Tesla didn't announce Musk's bonus for that milestone in 4Q16. It does not say the target to reach that milestone was 4Q16.

 

[Model 3]

Great reads mostly on SA due to the research and typically well reasoned opinions. Even the bears have to justify their stance and while the conclusions may be off, the historical info provided is helpful.

There are some articles there that is as you described here, but from my experience (until I gave up on reading anything there) they was in a minority. Now I will not give any "clicks" to articles there until someone trustworthy can confirm that it is an valuable article with real trustworthy informations and/or good reasoned options. And especially not articles written by shorts of the type "Elon did not get his Model 3 beta bonus in Q4-16 (witch they never said was the plan) so Model 3 has to be to late!!!!"

 

[sg021]

I used to read SA, but stopped probably close to a year ago. For an investment site I feel their Tesla articles often don't provide realistic guidance. Too many times conclusions are drawn that make little sense if you are well read on Tesla and Elon.

 

[lmaccaro]

Ok ok, just start snapping pics of the Betas in the wild! Us eastcoasters can't wait to see your pics.

There was a short and low quality video of a dark grey one spotted in CA posted to Reddit today.

 

[houdini]

Yet the 10-K explicitly said the beta wasn't completed, but might come as a result of the candidate models they are currently building.

There's zero doubt that they're building Model 3 prototypes.

SA are dodgy as F*#&. He makes wild claims in this article based off a document reporting months ago. Who cares when the document was published I.e. Days ago, it references long ago. As others have said; ignore this price manipulating short stock selling bulls&^$t artist and enjoy the fact we'll be getting our Model 3's earlier then expected .

And buy tesla stocks as they're effectively on sale at the moment.