I figure that within the next 5-to-10 years TSLA will be equivalent to 1/100th of BRK-A. Most recently TSLA was 1/1,293rd of BRK-A. Truly, if it gets to even 1/500th of BRK-A, there will be a bunch of $h0r+s taking long walks off high balcony ledges around Wall $treet./QUOTE]
There is always execution risk, key people leaving/dying but Tesla is a conglomerate looking to be the market leader or perhaps #2 in several huge industries over the next 15 years.
Global market leader in Battery Energy Storage.
US leader in solar panel manufacturing and installation.
Global Leader in autonomous electric mobility/carsharing services.
Most profitable global automotive company.
So if Toyota is worth ~$177B and Uber is worth ~$68B Tesla is a freaking bargain at ~$31B.
I will not opine on specific price targets, but on relative expectations of Tesla vs diversified auto companies. Daimler-Benz, VW, Ford and GM all have substantial non-automotive businesses. Hyundai, Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Samsung are parts of chaebol/keiretsu that are much more diverse than anything in Europe or NA.
Tesla is much like an early-stage keiretsu since it includes Tesla/Solar City and SpaceX. Thus Tesla now deploys technology developed in one industry to the advantage of another (e.g. SpaceX proprietary inconel producing Ludicrous).
Just as Wall Street has a horrible problem correctly evaluating technology transfer it also has problems valuing anything other than traditional entities. Conglomerates, for example, are difficult for them even if all the businesses are themselves conventional. That inability causes gross errors of estimate both on buy and sell side, so, for example, evolving tech companies are notoriously volatile. I'm old enough to remember the "nifty 50" even though Kodak and Polaroid are dead and Xerox is not exactly thriving.
FWIW, I am long Tesla, have been since the day after I attended the NTSB hearings in 2013 (April 13, 2014 $49.00 I paid). I do not check daily prices nor do I worry much about dilution. Frankly I suspect they'll need to raise capital in 2017 to support Solar City/Tesla growth in utility-level systems, which will always have front-ended expense and a slow payment cycle. I doubt if the Model 3 itself will cost too much incrementally but the doubling of Fremont capacity and redoubling of the gigafactory will certainly make new demands for capital. Some will be debt, some will be Panasonic, some will be other partners, but some will be Tesla too. So what?
The Tesla of 2018 will be vastly different than the one today due to gigafactory, Model 3 and very large solar installations. We'll probably be ready for growth in other areas too, but some of that might be a trifle slower because of US Federal impediments induced by the fossil fuel interests. That one, IMHO, is vastly overblown as a risk to Tesla, maybe more material to Tesla wanna-be competitors in both categories.
Red Sage might just be correct about some people "...taking long walks off high balcony ledges around Wall $treet." However, the lives of active traders are always high risk, and those of "the shorts" even more prone to get it in theirs.