jaschrbob
Member
Lots of movement in the last few days...2 days ago DD updated to 10 day window, then this morning to a 3 day window and I now have a VIN! 315xxx, and apparently I have 15 miles on my car already!
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Tbf he ordered before you and is west coast so his order really will not effect you. But I'm with you we've both been stuck at this same EDD for a while now. Every morning I open the app and mocks me with its glitched September date
Good on you for doing your research. There's a lot of valuable information hidden in this thread.
An estimated delivery date is just a ballpark of when the car will be available for pickup. There is a separate notification where the app offers you a choice of a specific day and time on which to pick up your car. It's setting up an appointment. From the rest of your post, I get the impression that you haven't reached that point yet. It just means that the delivery site doesn't know exactly when they'll have the car ready for you.
You ordered a new vehicle, and a company cannot offer you a demo car without telling you that's what it is.
The order spreadsheet indicates that all colors are being produced, same as ever.
Teslike Model 3 Survey & Order Tracker #2
Nfletcher
Member
I know his order doesn’t particularly affect me, but he’s a late March order and I’m a week later. Seeing other April orders get a VIN because they have a different paint color (in all locations) was my observation. The last few flyover videos showed tons of black, white, blue, and red M3’s and only a few MSM. My location of Memphis is primarily the main factor working against me. We don’t get many deliveries here so I’m stuck waiting for a full truck to come my way, after it’s been rail shipped. MSM orders have been consistently lagging behind the other colors was my point, even though the other free white paint is the most popular color. I would have paid more for the MSM color because I like it better than the others but alas I will wait.
Nfletcher
Member
Well that would make the most sense but it’s not how it works. Mid April orders have a closer EDD than mine. My location hurts me. Few deliveries here. There is a good chance I won’t have my car until Sept based on my initial EDD.
Hi
I just want to post this for the new people to offer some clarification on how the delivery queue works. Disclaimer: I do not work for Tesla nor am I a logistics expert this is simply a summary based on trends, notes posted by others and reading tea leaves. If anyone sees any errors or has any changes please let me know
Tldr: It is a very complicated process that may seem unfair at times but it is based on the most "efficient" delivery schedule possible
Order date: When you order a Tesla and pay 250$ deposit you are assigned a order date (OD). This never changes as long as you stay within your model (S,3,X,Y) even if you change make (RWD, LR, P). Each make has its own queue that varies in length and delivery times. Furthermore, within each make queue it is further divided based on configuration (paint color, wheel, software) and location ("west vs east"). If you change makes you will go into a new line. Some people are able to take advantage of this because they may have been waiting since (for example) 2021 for a RWD now they go to the LR and the system puts them right to the top of the match list. Upgrading your make is the only proven method of seriously improving your estimated delivery date (EDD) though it is not 100% guaranteed.
Estimated delivery date: This is where things get a little more complicated. First read what an EDD is very carefully, it is an ESTIMATED DELIVERY DATE. It is the day (range) Tesla thinks they are going to hand you the keys to your car and you drive away. Once you pay the 250$ deposit you must complete 3 tasks in your app. Register with your license, confirm trade in (better to say NO until you get a VIN as its good for 30 days), confirm payment (better to say cash until you get a VIN as its good for only 30-60 days). At this point the app will say you are all set. You should then get a EDD with dates, not just months. This means you are now in the queue. You are NOT in the queue before this is done when you just have months showing. (There is some controversy over this last point but general consensus is this).
However, the queue varies as it is a "sub" queue within the make queue. This queue as I said before is based on delivery location, and color/wheels/software. Tesla has two methods of delivery truck and train-->truck. West coast is primarily truck only, while "east coast" is shipped from train to three locations then by truck to the final delivery center. I have posted before the train route but there are primarily three train stops. From this it looks like tesla has multiple zones as well that they consider when they assign deliveries.
Thats the first "sub" queue. The next "sub-sub" queue is color/accessories. Color seems to be the most important one over wheels and software. Software used to be very important but due to abuse of the priority system Tesla has now changed it. Software is typically pushed once the car arrives at the delivery center so it is very inconsequential now to delivery. Color seems to be the most important in priority of external to internal color. That means all white Teslas in truck v train (with 3+ delivery zones) are in a line. However what happens with white teslas has nothing to do with what happens with black tesla and so on. Therefore it does no good to compare yourself to someone who is a) on the "opposite coast" from you with a similar config, b) someone who has a totally different color scheme then you. The best thing to do is find a "buddy" someone who has a car in same configuration as you and is in a similar geographic location. (In my case I follow black/black east coast orders very closely). For reference white/ silver are the two most common paint colors right now, so they have the longest lines.
So for an example: My car is Black/Black heading to southern NY. Lets say that makes my zone/subzone/delivery center: East Coast-NY-Southern (again I'm not 100% sure this is how they do it but it is how most logistics companies work to some extent). The system says ok today we are filling the East Coast-NY-Southern truck/train let's see what cars we have. Oh we have a black/black! Who is next in line? ZZ... bam VIN assigned. Or oh, no black/black, tough luck ZZ. Now lets see when the next black/black will be made... 2 weeks then bump ZZ's EDD back. The production is likely on an algorithm as well as they don't make your car to order. So if your order is #100 and its black/black but order #101 is red/white they will not roll a black/black out of the doors followed by a red/white. Instead they will make a batch of black/black then eventually a batch of red/white. This is why even if you and a friend ordered minutes apart and live next door to each other you can get wildly different deliveries.
Finally, explaining Tesla's delivery/production schedule. Tesla runs on quarters that are 3 months each and start q1 January 1st and end q4 December 31st. The typical pattern is as follows: (M=month)
M1 1-2 weeks maintenance, with very little production. Changing things here will not speed up delivery at all. Weeks 3-4 we start to see VINs roll out
M2 Primarily East Coast orders, with some old West Coast orders. Note it takes 2-3 weeks for Tesla to ship to East Coast delivery. Therefore if you have an EDD that is 2-3 weeks out and you haven't got a VIN you will likely not get the car at the start of your EDD and may see a bump.
M3 Primarily a West Coast push. Cars come very fast in the last month to the West Coast and VIN to delivery can be as short as 24 hours. So be prepared if you are west coast.
Tesla does these pushes because until the car is delivered and paid for it doesn't count on their earnings report.
Back to EDDs. EDDs bounce around a bit. The general turn around time from order to delivery is almost 4 months (120 days). It is useless to check your EDD and/or analyze it if you are not getting close to that date count. It will pull in and push out throughout the course of the order. Yes, we all check everyday, but just letting new orders be aware to not over analyze any little change. For example I ordered in April and was originally told Aug-Sept. Throughout May-June my EDD began to contract until I actually got a 2 week EDD in end of June for July, However, that soon shot back out to Aug-Sept. Despite 2 months of changes my EDD is essentially where it was when I first started.
The general trend with EDDs will be a 6 week window-->5 week-->4 week--> 2 week-->12 days-->VIN--> 5 day window. This does not mean that all EDDs will follow this trend. When you start to get a 2 week window start preparing for delivery but make sure you all pay attention to which month you are in. The system works on an algorithm that is constantly projecting delivery based on production rate. When the factory is going over drive in month 3 sometimes the system gets a little optimistic and will give you a unrealistic EDD. Like wise the opposite can happen when the factory if under maintenance in month 1.
That is the general idea of how this all works. Hope that helps. Take care
I just want to post this for the new people to offer some clarification on how the delivery queue works. Disclaimer: I do not work for Tesla nor am I a logistics expert this is simply a summary based on trends, notes posted by others and reading tea leaves. If anyone sees any errors or has any changes please let me know
Tldr: It is a very complicated process that may seem unfair at times but it is based on the most "efficient" delivery schedule possible
Order date: When you order a Tesla and pay 250$ deposit you are assigned a order date (OD). This never changes as long as you stay within your model (S,3,X,Y) even if you change make (RWD, LR, P). Each make has its own queue that varies in length and delivery times. Furthermore, within each make queue it is further divided based on configuration (paint color, wheel, software) and location ("west vs east"). If you change makes you will go into a new line. Some people are able to take advantage of this because they may have been waiting since (for example) 2021 for a RWD now they go to the LR and the system puts them right to the top of the match list. Upgrading your make is the only proven method of seriously improving your estimated delivery date (EDD) though it is not 100% guaranteed.
Estimated delivery date: This is where things get a little more complicated. First read what an EDD is very carefully, it is an ESTIMATED DELIVERY DATE. It is the day (range) Tesla thinks they are going to hand you the keys to your car and you drive away. Once you pay the 250$ deposit you must complete 3 tasks in your app. Register with your license, confirm trade in (better to say NO until you get a VIN as its good for 30 days), confirm payment (better to say cash until you get a VIN as its good for only 30-60 days). At this point the app will say you are all set. You should then get a EDD with dates, not just months. This means you are now in the queue. You are NOT in the queue before this is done when you just have months showing. (There is some controversy over this last point but general consensus is this).
However, the queue varies as it is a "sub" queue within the make queue. This queue as I said before is based on delivery location, and color/wheels/software. Tesla has two methods of delivery truck and train-->truck. West coast is primarily truck only, while "east coast" is shipped from train to three locations then by truck to the final delivery center. I have posted before the train route but there are primarily three train stops. From this it looks like tesla has multiple zones as well that they consider when they assign deliveries.
Thats the first "sub" queue. The next "sub-sub" queue is color/accessories. Color seems to be the most important one over wheels and software. Software used to be very important but due to abuse of the priority system Tesla has now changed it. Software is typically pushed once the car arrives at the delivery center so it is very inconsequential now to delivery. Color seems to be the most important in priority of external to internal color. That means all white Teslas in truck v train (with 3+ delivery zones) are in a line. However what happens with white teslas has nothing to do with what happens with black tesla and so on. Therefore it does no good to compare yourself to someone who is a) on the "opposite coast" from you with a similar config, b) someone who has a totally different color scheme then you. The best thing to do is find a "buddy" someone who has a car in same configuration as you and is in a similar geographic location. (In my case I follow black/black east coast orders very closely). For reference white/ silver are the two most common paint colors right now, so they have the longest lines.
So for an example: My car is Black/Black heading to southern NY. Lets say that makes my zone/subzone/delivery center: East Coast-NY-Southern (again I'm not 100% sure this is how they do it but it is how most logistics companies work to some extent). The system says ok today we are filling the East Coast-NY-Southern truck/train let's see what cars we have. Oh we have a black/black! Who is next in line? ZZ... bam VIN assigned. Or oh, no black/black, tough luck ZZ. Now lets see when the next black/black will be made... 2 weeks then bump ZZ's EDD back. The production is likely on an algorithm as well as they don't make your car to order. So if your order is #100 and its black/black but order #101 is red/white they will not roll a black/black out of the doors followed by a red/white. Instead they will make a batch of black/black then eventually a batch of red/white. This is why even if you and a friend ordered minutes apart and live next door to each other you can get wildly different deliveries.
Finally, explaining Tesla's delivery/production schedule. Tesla runs on quarters that are 3 months each and start q1 January 1st and end q4 December 31st. The typical pattern is as follows: (M=month)
M1 1-2 weeks maintenance, with very little production. Changing things here will not speed up delivery at all. Weeks 3-4 we start to see VINs roll out
M2 Primarily East Coast orders, with some old West Coast orders. Note it takes 2-3 weeks for Tesla to ship to East Coast delivery. Therefore if you have an EDD that is 2-3 weeks out and you haven't got a VIN you will likely not get the car at the start of your EDD and may see a bump.
M3 Primarily a West Coast push. Cars come very fast in the last month to the West Coast and VIN to delivery can be as short as 24 hours. So be prepared if you are west coast.
Tesla does these pushes because until the car is delivered and paid for it doesn't count on their earnings report.
Back to EDDs. EDDs bounce around a bit. The general turn around time from order to delivery is almost 4 months (120 days). It is useless to check your EDD and/or analyze it if you are not getting close to that date count. It will pull in and push out throughout the course of the order. Yes, we all check everyday, but just letting new orders be aware to not over analyze any little change. For example I ordered in April and was originally told Aug-Sept. Throughout May-June my EDD began to contract until I actually got a 2 week EDD in end of June for July, However, that soon shot back out to Aug-Sept. Despite 2 months of changes my EDD is essentially where it was when I first started.
The general trend with EDDs will be a 6 week window-->5 week-->4 week--> 2 week-->12 days-->VIN--> 5 day window. This does not mean that all EDDs will follow this trend. When you start to get a 2 week window start preparing for delivery but make sure you all pay attention to which month you are in. The system works on an algorithm that is constantly projecting delivery based on production rate. When the factory is going over drive in month 3 sometimes the system gets a little optimistic and will give you a unrealistic EDD. Like wise the opposite can happen when the factory if under maintenance in month 1.
That is the general idea of how this all works. Hope that helps. Take care
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RoBoRaT
PoPeYeD'SaiLoRDuDe
There's some method to the madness, that we won't fully know.
But here's a true story: OD 3/12 Pearl White, Black, Aero, No FSD, Las Vegas delivery.
I just sent a text nudge (reminder) about my 4 month old order, without asking if Tesla can expedite delivery, to confirm registration and delivery location. Then bam! VIN assigned the same day. YMMV.
Good luck, and may you get VIN'ed soon.
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I'm with you on this. You can see I got frustrated last night when a black/black that ordered end of June got a VIN while I'm sitting here waiting. This is when things get hard for us because we'll start seeing people with our same config get VINs. Soon it will be over don't worry
How does one determine how many deliveries are made to one's location? I'm in the St Louis area
@Nfletcher
Nfletcher
Member
You and I have the exact same EDD...you ordered 20 days later than me and we are both on the East Coast. Obviously different parts of the East Coast. You have upgraded black paint. NY gets many more deliveries than my area. I made 1 comment to the other person with MSM paint who ordered in late March, who I did observe to be on the west coast but has lagged a bit behind his/her counterparts for some reason (MAYBE PAINT COLOR???) and has my same config and the whole thread turned into a "schooling on EDD's". I made an observation. A friendly comment to another person waiting. My initial EDD will be the most accurate. It's in line with late April and some early May orders. As I've said time and time again, my location is my primary problem but my paint color is too. The spreadsheet is not particularly helpful because it's only as good as the people to plug their information in and update it. As far as data samples go, it's weak. I'm not knocking it, it's good for certain information and I appreciate it for some data points. I'm willing to bet 75% of the people on this thread don't even know there is a spreadsheet or haven't bothered to plug in their info. Many never return to update it. I have no frustration at this point (except with this thread) because I have reasonable expectations that my original EDD is when to expect it. If I don't get a mobile charger, well that will be a different story and is my only concern at this point.I'm with you on this. You can see I got frustrated last night when a black/black that ordered end of June got a VIN while I'm sitting here waiting. This is when things get hard for us because we'll start seeing people with our same config get VINs. Soon it will be over don't worry
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Nfletcher
Member
Go to your local SC and ask or join a local Tesla group and they'll most likely know.
Not sure what your getting at. I was agreeing with you and sharing mutual frustration. As for my long post it wasn't directed at you it was something you reminded me of so I wrote it for everyone.
Nfletcher
Member
Not just @ you but you were the last person to comment on the topic so I just replied to you.
Not sure if anyone can see the signature I just put in. I ordered 4/7 M3LR, Blue, Black interior, Aero, No FSD. I live in Indiana as well. My EDD right now is August 1 - August 15. Expecting a delay tomorrow as I have had 4 delays the last 4 Mondays. Also because I still don’t have a VIN and from what I have seen it takes 2-3 weeks to ship. Based off how things are going do you guys think I will receive delivery in August?
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