West coast gets a steady stream of cars throughout the quarter, with a clear blitz at the end of the quarter because Tesla can turn those deliveries around faster. The focus right now is on eastbound orders because the logistics are more complicated and Tesla doesn't want to be left holding a big inventory because a rail shipment didn't make it in time.
Lowering prices when there's a backlog of orders is a tricky business. Tesla would have to lower the price for everyone waiting or those people would just cancel their current order and start a new one. The resulting madhouse at the web site would be a wonder to behold, and people would definitely begrudge losing all the time they waited. That means that if there are 50,000 orders waiting for a base configuration Long Range, Tesla is walking away from $150 million. Then there's the fact that a bunch of people with more expensive configurations would probably cancel and go for the vehicle that's effectively just had its price slashed by $10,000. Instead of paying maybe $5,000 more for colors and wheels, now the difference is $15,000. That's a pretty good incentive to forego some style preferences in these inflationary times. That's more profit out the window for Tesla.
Tesla isn't lacking for demand. I would say that they'd wait until the tax rebate was affecting the order flow so much that the order backlog was starting to thin out. Then they would take the loss of revenue by dropping the price on current orders so that they could get the backlog back up again. As nobody else is capable of producing BEVs in volume right now, I would think that Tesla could wait a year or two. If they do anything in time for the January effective date, then they are truly princes among capitalists.
Oh, and there's also the problem that Tesla's batteries may not qualify for the credit anyway. A lot of their raw materials don't come from approved sources.