I was thinking that maybe we can pool our backgrounds to take a stab at potential margins for the Model 3. So, I think it's best to take a stab at margins when Model 3 is producing at a 100 k annual run rate ( say in 2019), and Model X + Model S, in that year, is at least another $100 k run rate, for purposes of spreading non-direct production line costs over a larger total production base for the entire product line.
I realize this is , at least, gonna be a very high level approximation, with an inherent high error rate. Hey, but maybe it's worth a start at a stab ?
First, a few assumptions ( please feel free to correct, as appropriate ):
1. Starting price in the US of $35k, and assume on average the production model buyers will add , say, $5k in options ( could be more if Tesla offer a 10 kWh range upgrade for say $2,500)
2. I'm assuming the SuperCharger network will be included, but who knows maybe it will be a $1500 or more option.
3. Potential Other options have be thoroughly reported here already by others.
4. Battery costs by 2019, for a 60 kWh no more than $ $7000 ( note that JB Straubel said that Tesla would be very disappointed if battery costs were more than $100 per kWh by 2020).
5. Sales and marketing costs of $1,500, per unit, as suggested by Elon when discussing recent referral incentive program.
6. So, now we need some estimates for drive train, motor, skin, wheels, tires and interior, mirrors, sensors and what I would call misc parts ( other than options ).
7. Then we would need some sort of plug in for software, and other amortizated production line and R & D costs.
8. Once we have that we can then take a stab at service center, warranty, supercharger network and other admin and corporate overhead ( which should be a lot lower once we are at 200 k annual volume run rate ) based on the P & L and info on past earnings Conf calls.
So, I don't know if this is a fool's errand ( could be) but thought I'd at least try to get some sense from those in the industry for drive train, motor, wheels, tires, skin, interior, mirrors, sensors etc.
At least a stab at all of that could give us some sense of the range of where the costs could potentially fall.
The objective here is simply to explore the likelihood of a minimum 30 per cent operating margin, at a total production volume run rate of 200 k units in 2019.
If folks or Mod think this is not worth it or should not be a new thread ...please edit accordingly. Thanks.
I realize this is , at least, gonna be a very high level approximation, with an inherent high error rate. Hey, but maybe it's worth a start at a stab ?
First, a few assumptions ( please feel free to correct, as appropriate ):
1. Starting price in the US of $35k, and assume on average the production model buyers will add , say, $5k in options ( could be more if Tesla offer a 10 kWh range upgrade for say $2,500)
2. I'm assuming the SuperCharger network will be included, but who knows maybe it will be a $1500 or more option.
3. Potential Other options have be thoroughly reported here already by others.
4. Battery costs by 2019, for a 60 kWh no more than $ $7000 ( note that JB Straubel said that Tesla would be very disappointed if battery costs were more than $100 per kWh by 2020).
5. Sales and marketing costs of $1,500, per unit, as suggested by Elon when discussing recent referral incentive program.
6. So, now we need some estimates for drive train, motor, skin, wheels, tires and interior, mirrors, sensors and what I would call misc parts ( other than options ).
7. Then we would need some sort of plug in for software, and other amortizated production line and R & D costs.
8. Once we have that we can then take a stab at service center, warranty, supercharger network and other admin and corporate overhead ( which should be a lot lower once we are at 200 k annual volume run rate ) based on the P & L and info on past earnings Conf calls.
So, I don't know if this is a fool's errand ( could be) but thought I'd at least try to get some sense from those in the industry for drive train, motor, wheels, tires, skin, interior, mirrors, sensors etc.
At least a stab at all of that could give us some sense of the range of where the costs could potentially fall.
The objective here is simply to explore the likelihood of a minimum 30 per cent operating margin, at a total production volume run rate of 200 k units in 2019.
If folks or Mod think this is not worth it or should not be a new thread ...please edit accordingly. Thanks.
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