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Model 3 official test drives coming this year.
- Thread starter Keith909man
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Is it anti-sell? Or are they looking to damp expectations that regular people will actually see cars in 2017?
This goes a long way to reinforce my "gut feeling" schedule for production ramp up, that I'm copying from another thread.
July: NADA, except some hand built RCs as they have now. Tesla may claim that they're off of the line, but that's a bit fuzzy. These cars will be a mix of hand & machine assembled, using some production components and sub-assemblies and some prototype parts.
August: Same as July, but a higher proportion of assy and parts from production processes.
September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees
Month of October: 500 - employees
Month of November: 1000 - employees
Month of December: 2000 - employees and California
Month of January: 5000 - California
Month of February: 10000 - Start of general release
By June 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.
This goes a long way to reinforce my "gut feeling" schedule for production ramp up, that I'm copying from another thread.
July: NADA, except some hand built RCs as they have now. Tesla may claim that they're off of the line, but that's a bit fuzzy. These cars will be a mix of hand & machine assembled, using some production components and sub-assemblies and some prototype parts.
August: Same as July, but a higher proportion of assy and parts from production processes.
September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees
Month of October: 500 - employees
Month of November: 1000 - employees
Month of December: 2000 - employees and California
Month of January: 5000 - California
Month of February: 10000 - Start of general release
By June 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.
Thomas Edison
Active Member
I don't really see it as antiselling. It just means they want to fill customer orders before they pump out another 1000-2000 cars that will be not for sale.
When I went into the Tesla store 4 months ago they said they were expecting test drive cars before Christmas. Not that what a Tesla store employee says really means much. Apprears to be legit in this case.
When I went into the Tesla store 4 months ago they said they were expecting test drive cars before Christmas. Not that what a Tesla store employee says really means much. Apprears to be legit in this case.
I don't think it would break the company. I think the market has already built in an expectation that the car will be late. Certainly Tesla doesn't have a track record of meeting any of their deadlines, so I don't know why anybody who follows the company would expect otherwise.
EM and crew had set a July deadline for production as milestone for the project team. And they clung to that as a means to not let-up the pressure. But now, as July rolls around, they need to switch to managing customer expectations. If they're telling early reservation holders that they can have a "test drive" late 2017, what does that imply for when they'll actually get a car? I'm not hearing a 2017 delivery in that statement.
What I've predicted is that the first real deliveries (i.e. non-employees) would be in Feb 2018. Given that a Model S used to have a 3 month lag from order to delivery, a Nov/Dec test drive and a Feb delivery sounds pretty much on spot.
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it's really tough to say what this means given their stated West -> East delivery plan - perhaps trying to curb expectations for East Coast and International buyers, and/or those who have not yet placed an order?
I think that not being able to have a decent number of base $35k Model 3 West Coast deliveries on the books before the end of 2017 would be a back look for Tesla. But I'm a 3/31/16 early morning reservation holder in Seattle who expects my car before the end of 2017, so of course I think that!
I think that not being able to have a decent number of base $35k Model 3 West Coast deliveries on the books before the end of 2017 would be a back look for Tesla. But I'm a 3/31/16 early morning reservation holder in Seattle who expects my car before the end of 2017, so of course I think that!
jgillispie
Member
It will be interesting to see if this means the M3 AWDs arrive around the same time the first MS AWD leases start coming back. They could try pushing more reservation holders up to CPOs.
Edit: Sorry, I missed the bit about the AWD 3s in December.
No, there's no chance. The AWDs will be summer 2018 at the earliest. I could see them trying to push a bunch of the reservation holders who want/need AWD up to an early P85D CPO. I've got one of the first P85Ds off of the line, and I'll be lease returning it in December.
It's an awfully nice car and is wonderful to drive in the winter! And it'll be a good while before you get a 3 that performs like this thing does.
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How would you rate your leasing experience with Tesla? I see a lot of naysayers on this site who are quite down on Tesla leasing, but that's because they're likely comparing it to ICE leasing which has largely been a dishonest ploy by manufacturers to begin with.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
This just doesn't fit with their capital expense at all. Just 3 weeks ago they signed off on the $216M tooling purchase to make the batteries for the M3. Why buy the tools now if mass production isn't until Dec/Jan, 6-7 months from now? I'm certainly not ruling out any unforeseen delays that Tesla doesn't know at this moment. But for Tesla to make the purchase on the tooling, they must have some confidence that they will need the capacity very soon.
I had no complaints; the process was straightforward and open. They were a little conservative on the residual, but I was okay with that. If, come end of lease, the car is worth more the buy out value, I can just buy it out and either trade or sell it to recover the difference.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
IIRC Tesla started delivering MX to customers before having them widely available for test drives. My interpretation is that by late 2017 Tesla will have enough M3 coming that they can spare some for test drives.
Selling a significant number of Model 3's at less than cost will probably 'break' Tesla Motors. It is likely that when Model 3 production ramps up, MS/X sales will decline, which could create a double whammy of losses at time when money is rushing out the door for factories, AV, inventory parts, tooling, Superchargers, etc. Ramping up is something that needs to happen when profitability is guaranteed for the M3 program.
I don't know the terms for the tooling, but if they're buying it now, it'll take a few months to deliver. And then they need to install, commission and do the part production approvals. It seems to be pretty much in-line with a serious ramp-up near the beginning of 2018.
N5329K
Active Member
No sign of this on my Tesla page yet, but it's really good news. The ingress/egress evolution, cockpit checkout and test drive are mandatory items for me.
Robin
Robin
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I disagree, I think ~3 month (not 6month) is typical for industrial machines delivery/installation time. The hundreds of "alien dreadnought" robots at Fremont factory had something like 15-20 wk installation schedule. I expect the battery tooling order to start getting filled in ~2 month time (end of July), and ramp up to completion in another 2 months (end of Sep), so by beginning of Q4 Oct I think Tesla will crank out a lot of cars.
This. I don't think cars not being available for test drives is a sign that they wont be delivered until then. There are probably a lot of people on the list willing to order the car without a test drive and one can always test drive the S to get a general feel of how the car handles.
If they are building cars at a rapid pace in November/December it might be better to hold some back. They do not want to hit 200,000 sales at the end of a quarter. If they have cars sitting around they might as well get people back into the store and give them a chance to tryout their future purchase.
