You were doing well until you said “cold weather”. Battery capacity is lower in cold weather, and the rated miles displayed has always reflected that. A 100% charge in cold weather will show fewer miles of range than in warm weather. There has never been any dispute about this. Search the hundreds of posts on this topic over the years for details.
OK, thanks. I'm still trying to get a handle on this, and I've run across posts that say cold weather shouldn't affect rated range displayed, though obviously it affects actual range significantly. So, based on your reply I'll adjust my assessment of the CW to reflect that in cold weather the displayed rated range can be lower.
But . . . How cold are we talking? In my area, the highs have been around 75-85 for the past few months. Evening temps can dip down to the high 40's only very lately (as in 48, 49); otherwise lows have been mostly in the mid-50's to upper 60's over the life of my car.
In other words, this isn't exactly Fargo, ND weather here in Nor Cal. You can indeed find a million (literally I think a million) posts about folks in Minnesota, etc. where they're wondering why their range has dropped when it's 15 degrees outside, but those posts carry little relevance to my situation.
So bottom line then, how cold should it get before I can start attributing any part of my current 22 mile range reduction to temperature? If it goes from 85-75 degrees, is that at all meaningful in terms of range you should see displayed? Because that's exactly the temperature band my car has been in its entire life so far.
As a last data point, I did a 10-100% cycle to achieve only 291 miles full range, I did that cycling when my days averaged highs in the low 80's, and yet Tesla Dublin said that my 310-291 drop probably was all due to temperature decrease.
Does this sound right to you?
PS - I see in some searches of cold-related range issues, that S's and X's will actually tell you that the cold is affecting range, and will even tell you how much. I also understand Model 3's will show a little blue snowflake next to the range when the car senses that temperature is affecting range. I have never seen the blue snowflake on my display. Ever.