Model 3 Production Resume?

[ShearModXY]

Hi All!

This is my first post. My wife and I are planning on putting a deposit on a Model 3 in early summer, so I'm getting pretty excited. Not sure if I should consider waiting for the Model Y to get a little bigger vehicle with room for our 3 kids, but either way it will come down to cost... so Model 3 may be the best option.

Anyway, I know Tesla said they were shutting down production for a week, it's been two today, did I miss where they started back up? Or are they still down? It will be amazing to see them go from robots to humans but for final assembly, I think it's what's needed to meet their goals... well that and 24 hour production.

Thanks a lot!

 

[gearchruncher]

A bunch of people got VINs last week, so it appears they are running again.

Not that it has any bearing on someone just putting a reservation down in a few months- You're looking at end of 2019 to get your car.

 

[ShearModXY]

Thanks... right. I colleague of mine just reserved one about 3 weeks ago and her time table was obviously the 12-18 months (unless they bring on more humans and they can ramp even more and cut that time in half... that'd be cool and good for the company).
So she's just waiting and until I throw down a deposit in early summer, it'd be a long wait either way but the more time I wait the longer I have to save up additional funds... that's how I'm looking at things... more time = more money to put down = smaller payment.

 

[jamnmon66]

Thanks... right. I colleague of mine just reserved one about 3 weeks ago and her time table was obviously the 12-18 months (unless they bring on more humans and they can ramp even more and cut that time in half... that'd be cool and good for the company).
So she's just waiting and until I throw down a deposit in early summer, it'd be a long wait either way but the more time I wait the longer I have to save up additional funds... that's how I'm looking at things... more time = more money to put down = smaller payment.

They currently only have one production line in operation. The goal is for it to be putting out 5,000 cars per week by the end of June. No guarantees but this is quite possible. There are at least 400,000 people ahead of you in line (probably quite a bit more but Tesla stopped updating this in 2016). 5,000 cars per week is ~250,000 cars per year. Even if they can double the output, it'll be around one year or more to get your car.

Not to discourage you but just be realistic about the wait. Everyone who has been getting their cars recently have been waiting over two years.

There's a good chance that this process will repeat itself when the Model Y is announced. If that's your choice, it'd be worth it to wake up early & stand in line to put in your reservation on day 1.

 

[NRG4All]

Thanks... right. I colleague of mine just reserved one about 3 weeks ago and her time table was obviously the 12-18 months (unless they bring on more humans and they can ramp even more and cut that time in half... that'd be cool and good for the company).
So she's just waiting and until I throw down a deposit in early summer, it'd be a long wait either way but the more time I wait the longer I have to save up additional funds... that's how I'm looking at things... more time = more money to put down = smaller payment.

You have one advantage over those of us receiving our vehicles now. Tesla will have time to work all the "bugs" out of the cars. Much ballyhoo has been made of a few cosmetic (and some cases of functional flaws). However, I have not seen any true statistical sampling done on the 20,000 Model 3's that have been produced. So a lot of that press is just anecdotal of a few cars. I think a good deal of that may have some petroleum interests behind the curtain. And, look on the bright side, I've been waiting 25 months and have configured but have not received a VIN number yet.

Also, when you do put your deposit down to get your place in line to reserve an M3, remember to join in on the worksheets that help track the progress. Also, remember too that the $1,000 is fully refundable if you decide you don't want an M3.

 

[adaptabl]

They currently only have one production line in operation. The goal is for it to be putting out 5,000 cars per week by the end of June. No guarantees but this is quite possible. There are at least 400,000 people ahead of you in line (probably quite a bit more but Tesla stopped updating this in 2016). 5,000 cars per week is ~250,000 cars per year. Even if they can double the output, it'll be around one year or more to get your car.

Not to discourage you but just be realistic about the wait. Everyone who has been getting their cars recently have been waiting over two years.

There's a good chance that this process will repeat itself when the Model Y is announced. If that's your choice, it'd be worth it to wake up early & stand in line to put in your reservation on day 1.

Less the number of cancelations. It may be sooner than later.

 

[GTKAZ]

They are definitely back in production 24/6

 

[jamnmon66]

Less the number of cancelations. It may be sooner than later.

Hopefully. Plus they might get up to 10,000 per week & find a way to get a second production line up & running. I hope this is how it goes. But, after watching for a few years, I'm optimistic about the products and innovation from Tesla but pessimistic about timelines.

Just go into it realizing that Elon is over optimistic & off the charts ambitious. This results in kick ass products but missed self-imposed deadlines. If you're ok with that, like I am, then you won't get jaded when it takes 2+ years to get your car.

 

[drawfour]

So she's just waiting and until I throw down a deposit in early summer, it'd be a long wait either way but the more time I wait the longer I have to save up additional funds... that's how I'm looking at things... more time = more money to put down = smaller payment.

You can throw down the deposit now, reserving your spot in line against anyone who would come afterwards. Then when you get the invite, you can defer until you have the funds. You're not required to turn it into a purchase when they call your number. Unless you need that $1k now and can't afford to do it, I'd recommend just tossing it down. You can always cancel later and get the money back if you change your mind.

 

[ShearModXY]

Thanks everyone. I am not swayed by the talk of quality and fit-and-finish, the cars being delivered now are better with all that sort of thing than the early cars and the I am aware that the $1,000 is refundable and that I can defer to a later date. I am not swayed by the long wait, as I've stated before, the longer I wait, the more time that gives me to save up money for when I get to configure and finally purchase.

Now, with my reservation actually a reality that will come soon (now that my wife is on board with us reserving one!) my only concern is should I wait to put down a reservation on a Model 3 and hold out for a Model Y?

So that leads me to a really good question for you folks who are in the know more than I: If I put down a reservation on a Model 3 but after the reveal of the Y in late 2018, do they allow a reservation holder to 'transfer' that reservation to that model?

I'm just thinking, for a family of 5, I can only entertain an M3 because it can hold all my people but if it's similarly priced, and it's slightly bigger, it might be worth the wait for the Y, for a slightly larger CUV... but again, if it's much more than the M3's 35k base price, I may not be able to afford the Y anyway, so that is my conundrum.

I don't want to wish my summer away, but I want to know about the Model Y!!!!

 

[jbcarioca]

...
Now, with my reservation actually a reality that will come soon (now that my wife is on board with us reserving one!) my only concern is should I wait to put down a reservation on a Model 3 and hold out for a Model Y?

So that leads me to a really good question for you folks who are in the know more than I: If I put down a reservation on a Model 3 but after the reveal of the Y in late 2018, do they allow a reservation holder to 'transfer' that reservation to that model?

...
I don't want to wish my summer away, but I want to know about the Model Y!!!!

No problem. You only need to commit that $1,000. reserve a Model 3, so you're in the queue. WhenModel Y is revealed you can reserve that and they'll refund your Model 3 reservation deposit. No worries. If you are asked to configure teh Model 3 before Model Y real no problem, just defer configuration until Model Y reveal.

Flexibility just costs you the opportunity cost for income on that $1000 deposit.

Unless the world changes, Model Y is likely to attract pretty large wait times too, so that might make you take a Model 3 too. All logic suggests Model Y will outsell Model 3 by a very large margin, so there are probably a lot of people who'll share your idea.

FWIW, one of my two Model 3 reservations I'll change to Model Y if there will not be a 'huge wait'. (In quotation marks because I expect there will be one of those, regardless of how one defines the term.

 

[harry]

So that leads me to a really good question for you folks who are in the know more than I: If I put down a reservation on a Model 3 but after the reveal of the Y in late 2018, do they allow a reservation holder to 'transfer' that reservation to that model?

Tesla has allowed that in the past. My daughter switched her deposit from an X to an S.

 

[evJOULE]

HI ShearModXY, welcome to the forum and to the Tesla family. IMO, I would put the deposit down, and when the Model Y is revealed and you find that it better fits your situation and budget, just take the Model 3 deposit back if they won't let you transfer and apply it to a Model Y. That way you at least get a spot in line for the Model 3 while you wait to see how the Model Y shapes up for your situation. Good luck.

 

[wbhokie]

They currently only have one production line in operation. The goal is for it to be putting out 5,000 cars per week by the end of June. No guarantees but this is quite possible. There are at least 400,000 people ahead of you in line (probably quite a bit more but Tesla stopped updating this in 2016). 5,000 cars per week is ~250,000 cars per year. Even if they can double the output, it'll be around one year or more to get your car.

Not to discourage you but just be realistic about the wait. Everyone who has been getting their cars recently have been waiting over two years.

Well not necessarily. Yes, I am a current owner, but my turnaround time was 1 month between when I put down my deposit to when I was asked to configure. Seems like they are first time owners, so maybe it will be that long, but the line is deceptive.

 

[adaptabl]

You can throw down the deposit now, reserving your spot in line against anyone who would come afterwards. Then when you get the invite, you can defer until you have the funds. You're not required to turn it into a purchase when they call your number. Unless you need that $1k now and can't afford to do it, I'd recommend just tossing it down. You can always cancel later and get the money back if you change your mind.

Provided they are still around or don't restructure. Reservation money is used for day to day operations.

 

[drawfour]

Provided they are still around or don't restructure. Reservation money is used for day to day operations.

Nah. You'll get it back before any creditors get it.

 

[TT97]

Nah. You'll get it back before any creditors get it.

Why would you think that? The reservations are unsecured loans. We would be well down the list of being repaid and even then, if we see anything, it will be pennies on the dollar and years from now. (Unfortunately, I speak from previous experience.)

 

[trentbridge]

The law as I found it:

Bankruptcy Code Section 507(a)(7) establishes a priority for unsecured claims of individuals arising from Customer Deposits towards the purchase of goods or services that were not delivered up to a maximum of $2,600. The remaining portion of the un-refunded deposit would become a general unsecured claim. Consumers owed deposits are only paid after all of the secured creditors and administrative expenses of the bankruptcy (such as bankruptcy lawyers’ fees) are paid. As priority creditors, holders of deposits would be paid up to $2,600 before any general unsecured obligations of the retailer are satisfied.

 

[TT97]

The law as I found it:

Bankruptcy Code Section 507(a)(7) establishes a priority for unsecured claims of individuals arising from Customer Deposits towards the purchase of goods or services that were not delivered up to a maximum of $2,600. The remaining portion of the un-refunded deposit would become a general unsecured claim. Consumers owed deposits are only paid after all of the secured creditors and administrative expenses of the bankruptcy (such as bankruptcy lawyers’ fees) are paid. As priority creditors, holders of deposits would be paid up to $2,600 before any general unsecured obligations of the retailer are satisfied.

Unfortunately, in BK situations, the secured debt (and admin expenses) pretty much eat up all the available funds for distribution. But I guess the $1000 reservations don't have it as bad at the Roadster reservations as only $2600 of their deposit is priority (or people who ordered but not received yet).

 

[jamnmon66]

Provided they are still around or don't restructure. Reservation money is used for day to day operations.

Surprised it took this long for someone to beat the bankruptcy drum. There should be a separate sub-forum to keep all of the doom & gloom in one place for easy reference.