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Model 3 Supercharging Capable Discussion

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The hard thing about this conversation is the fact that we lack pretty much all of the data to discuss it properly. Tesla has to have some idea of what the potential abuse/misuse numbers look like relative to standard acceptable usage. Maybe some of you are right and that number happens to be insignificant. If so, flat fee might make sense if they're to assume the behavior of future (3) owners will be similar to that of existing owners. Or, maybe it's not insignificant and so they can use the data they have to sort out a plan that limits charging in some way. Perhaps it's a machine learning algorithm, as I've suggested before. Or maybe it's more straightforward - you can charge near home occasionally, but if you do it often, then you can't anymore. You lose the privilege of that charger.

To me, paying for usage is sure to cut down on misuse (assuming it's actually a problem), and I really don't think it'll eat into valid travel. If you have a long trip planned, paying a few bucks per charge isn't going to deter you. It certainly wouldn't stop me from any kind of trip I'd take, especially if it's billed in the background.
 
I would expect the total average use (minutes per owner per month) to drop roughly in half with pay-per-minute billing, vs. all-you-can-eat.

So... it costs $13 to drive 200 miles in an ICE. Should supercharging cost more than that or do you honestly think $13 is going to cause people to cut their travel in half....

To me, paying for usage is sure to cut down on misuse (assuming it's actually a problem), and I really don't think it'll eat into valid travel. If you have a long trip planned, paying a few bucks per charge isn't going to deter you. It certainly wouldn't stop me from any kind of trip I'd take, especially if it's billed in the background.

Agreed... that's why I completely disagree with the premise that any pay per use fee can in any meaningful way pay for the network... maybe in ~10 years when it's mature but certainly not now when it needs to double annually... it's impossible for reasonable usage fees to fund that aggressive expansion.
 
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Let's try some numbers. (For those who are sick of my posts, please skip this!) I think we can assume that unmetered unlimited supercharging will not come "free" with every Model 3, particularly not for the $35k base model. So there are two limiting scenarios:

1. Upfront option (say $2k) to enable unmetered unlimited supercharging
2. Pay-per-minute (say $0.25/min) supercharging

The first option would immediately reduce demand for the car. Why? For buyers who view supercharging as a necessity, which is probably most of them, the car just got $2k more expensive. Will they just pay it? Well, if money were no object, they probably would have already bought an S/X, right? Some buyers will cough up the $2k for SC at the expense of other high-margin options, to stay within their budget. Others will decide to buy an ICE (gulp) instead. This does not further Tesla's mission.

Now, suppose it currently costs Tesla $2k per SC-enabled car (under the all-you-can-eat approach) to build and maintain the SC network. This is technically sustainable, although fewer total cars will be sold. If Tesla sells 500k SC-enabled cars per year, that's $1B per year they must spend to maintain the network.

So what happens if they switch the majority of these cars to a pay-per-minute system?

A. Total demand for supercharger use (minutes/car/month) drops roughly in half.
B. The SC buildout thus costs $500m per year instead of $1B.
C. Tesla nets about $250m/year in per-minute revenue. (This increases over time with the size of the network!)
D. The difference ($250m), split across 500k cars sold, is about $500/car, which can be taken upfront from the profit margin of each car.

Of course, at a $35k price point, even a $500k hit to profit is quite painful. So this actually suggests a blended approach:

3. $500 to enable SC + $0.20/min for incremental use.

$500 is a LOT easier to cough up than $2000, especially for price-conscious consumers who expect to need SC only on rare occasions. It also preserves Tesla's profit margin relative to the $2k-upfront scenario. But it doesn't drive away nearly as many buyers to ICE's as the $2k upfront option would.

I admit that these numbers are just my own best guesses. There may be no way to know without doing the experiment. But I haven't yet seen a plausible set of economic assumptions that shows that all-you-can-eat for Model 3 is a better approach.
 
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So... it costs $13 to drive 200 miles in an ICE. Should supercharging cost more than that or do you honestly think $13 is going to cause people to cut their travel in half....

It won't affect long-distance travel or miles driven at all. It will have a much stronger effect on local charging, when suddenly it is no longer economically convenient to plug in at the SC while eating dinner on the way home, or to use the SC for local charging in general. And it will drastically cut down on trickle-charging to 100% at the SC, and/or staying plugged in after charging. So I think that dropping total SC minutes in half is quite realistic.

It's also important to take into account that Model 3 owners will be, by and large, in a different economic situation than S/X owners. With an all-you-can-eat plan, Model 3 owners would be significantly more likely to do more charging at the SC; they might have less access to home charging, or have only 110v, or decide that it's worth 30 minutes of their time to save $10 in electricity. Pay-per-use would substantially help offset this, while remaining fair to all users (and still cheaper than gas).
 
A. Total demand for supercharger use (minutes/car/month) drops roughly in half.

Do you have any data to support this idea that charging ~$13 to drive 200 miles would reduce the desire to travel by 50%? Pretty... Pretty sure $13 isn't much of a deterrent... that's not the goal anyway... Tesla WANTS you to travel. It's advertising.

The most recent Supercharger update is from a year ago... which state ~90M miles have been supercharged which would have raised ~$5.6M in usage fees at $0.25/min. Meanwhile collecting diverting $2k from every car would raise ~$100M.
 
It won't affect long-distance travel or miles driven at all. It will have a much stronger effect on local charging, when suddenly it is no longer economically convenient to plug in at the SC while eating dinner on the way home, or to use the SC for local charging in general.

Wouldn't a simpler solution be to block local cars from charging? A software fix is probably a lot easier than a new pay structure...

And.... I'm ~99.99% certain that local use of superchargers is much closer to ~5% than 50%... so eliminating local use isn't going to take that much stress off the network.
 
I'm aware of it, which is why I would not want to do so. But paying 2K upfront for a service that I would use once a year gives me plenty of incentive to actually get my monies worth. I'm not a jerk, but I'm also not a sap.

And by the way, the true point of supercharging is to break down a major barrier to EV adoption. Making the network financially impracticable for a significant portion of people is counterproductive to the whole process.
Look. I see your point. I just rather thoroughly disagree with it. Besides, by my calculations, even if there were a fee, it probably wouldn't be more than $500 -- at this point, $2,000 would be WAY too much. Here is how I described it elsewhere:

The $2,000 fee for Supercharging on the Model S
60 represented only 11.44% of the 25% profit
margin on that car. The traditional automobile
manufacturers admit to a 6% profit margin on their
cars. Since Tesla Motors will not have a network
of 'independent franchised dealerships' to siphon
off profitability, that makes for another 6%. So,
it is very likely the minimum profit margin on a
$35,000 Model ☰ will be 12%. That comes to $4,200
and 11.44% of that is $480.48 or less than $500.
Besides... What's the point of cutting the
Reservation deposit from a $5,000 minimum on Model S
and Model X to only $1,000 if you are only going cut
the Supercharger option from $2,000 to $1,000 on
higher volume? Sure, a $1,000 fee is simple,
straightforward, linear, understandable, and likely
'fair'... But a $500 fee, if tendered, would be
extremely affordable and accessible. And, swallowing
that amount and telling people to just buy a car,
then charge where ever they like, as often as they
like, but please don't be a [BUM] about it, is even
better.


The base price has been set, effectively at 'half' the
$69,900 price of the Model S 60 since 2013. The
people at Tesla Motors are very, very smart. They are
making every effort to ensure that the cost to build
the car does not exceed 94% of $35,000 to start -- or
$32,900 -- so that the car is at the very least,
profitable in some way from the very beginning. By the
way, car companies that fall below 5% profitability go
out of business. Lexus manages 14% across their whole
product line. Worst case, if the options that are
added above and beyond the base price cost 50% as much
as is charged for them, if someone adds as much as
$15,000 in options to the base car -- meaning a $50,000
MSRP car costs $40,400 to build -- the overall
profitability goes to 19.2% instead. Even a $2,000 fee
for Supercharger access would only move that to 22.3%
profitability on the top end. And if Supercharger
access were the sole $2,000 option chosen on a $35,000
car, that would take you from a 6% minimum to a 11.1%
margin. My, that number looks familiar... Oh! That's
because as I said before, not having a network of
'independent franchised dealerships' allows for an
additional 6% of profitability all by itself -- and
therefore, Supercharger access is already paid for!
 
Why do you think paying for a charge has to be inconvenient?

It could easily be billed directly to your credit card automatically. It could be exactly as convent as it is now, just plug in and charge up. The only difference (besides a small charge on your credit card) is there would be more available stalls and the wait time would be less.
This concept of 'easy' billing is just amazing. Tesla Motors has already determined that the internal expense of transaction fees and administration of such a system would be higher than the cost of the electricity dispensed. That increased cost would be inconvenient to Tesla Motors. Because it would not save them money, it would COST them MORE money.

Lookit: General Motors spent $3.10 Billion on advertising during 2011. That was about $1 Billion more than Ford, and they still got their butt handed to them. Tesla Motors does not use traditional advertising at all. They have a YouTube and Vimeo account, a Twitter feed, a Facebook page, and a website. They rely greatly upon word-of-mouth to inform people of what they have to offer. And in one week after the reveal of Model ☰ they had 325,000 Reservations for it. That is practically 11 years worth of planned Production for the Chevrolet BOLT... or five-and-a-half years of BOLT and VOLT combined. At this rate, even if Tesla Motors chose to spend $1,000,000,000 on expanding the Supercharger network ahead of the release of Model ☰, they would still not be losing a dime. One estimate places their internal cost for an 8 space Supercharger location at about $400,000. So, they could install 2,500 of those Supercharger locations, adding 20,000 Supercharger spaces and still be far below the advertising budgets of Ford or Chevrolet.

Without 'real' advertising or 'independent franchised dealerships' weighing down on the bottom line, Tesla Motors is in a great position to expand their operations and remain profitable -- without additional fees for Supercharger access.
 
...I would be quite happy to pay a per use fee.
God knows I hate it when people write that... What do you mean you will be a 'frequent user' of Superchargers in an urban environment? How much do you drive per week? Since most people apparently only drive less than 40 miles per day... A 200+ mile range should be able to last you at least five days. So, if you charged up on Friday night... Did whatever running around you might do on the weekend, charged up again on Sunday afternoon... You'd be good for the rest of the work week. Right?

Unless, you live in the frozen tundra... In which case, parking outside, without a trickle charge, might vampirize your state of charge somewhat... And even that wouldn't be too bad, maybe 4-to-8 miles per night... Plus whatever energy it took to warm up the cabin for your journey the next day... In which case you'd end up using the Supercharger three times a week instead of only two. I don't see that as 'abuse' at all.

Remember, the car will 'phone home' to the Mothership, and upload data regarding your state of charge and usage and when and where you charged. Using a Supercharger when you are below 20%, 10%, or 5% is NOT abusive in the slightest. Especially when you don't have any other option.
 
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Wouldn't a simpler solution be to block local cars from charging? A software fix is probably a lot easier than a new pay structure...

And.... I'm ~99.99% certain that local use of superchargers is much closer to ~5% than 50%... so eliminating local use isn't going to take that much stress off the network.

Blocking someone is going to piss them off a LOT more than charging a fair or even steep fee. Tesla wouldn't risk the PR damage, especially because there would inevitably be cases where someone has a perfectly legitimate reason to charge (or even an emergency reason) and was blocked from doing so. Imagine you forgot to plug in your car overnight, your wife goes into labor, you try to race her to the hospital but realize you need a 3-minute SC stop, and Tesla blocks your car from charging. PR nightmare. (Totally contrived, but eventually something like this will happen.)

Local use would spike with the Model 3 because of economic reasons cited in my earlier posts, unless some measure were in place to deter it. (If you're financially pinched, sitting at the local SC for 30 minutes to save $10 in electricity is certainly a lot more appealing than it was for most S/X owners.) And when you stop at a SC on a long-distance trip, you typically charge for ~20 minutes and keep going. When you stop at the mall for dinner on the way home and conveniently plug into the SC there and forget about it, that could be 2 hours. So each local charging stop, even if there are fewer of them, could have a disproportionately higher impact than a roadtrip stop.
 
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I'd like that... but I'm very skeptical that the network would be able to sustain hundreds of thousands of people using local superchargers to reduce their electric bills...
I sincerely doubt that will be an issue at all. Even in Los Angeles County, where there are over 6,000,000 vehicles registered, nowhere near 1% of them are fully electric. There are eight Supercharger locations (including the permitted one in Santa Ana) within fifty miles of my house. By my best guess, by the time there are 60,000 'locals' with Tesla Motors products within that area, they will need another 112 Supercharger locations in this area. Even that might be a very high number, because electric cars have the benefit of being able to be charged at home or at work. And the grand majority of the populace here lives in single Family dwellings, as opposed to highrise apartments or condominiums. If we presume that as many as 40% of those who buy have no form of private charging and must use Superchargers for all their driving needs, that would reduce the total to 48 Supercharger locations around here. Keep in mind that for those 6,000,000 vehicles, there are only 1,900 gas stations. So, one for every 3,000 vehicles or so. And this is one of the most vehicle intensive places in the world.
 
Do you have any data to support this idea that charging ~$13 to drive 200 miles would reduce the desire to travel by 50%? Pretty... Pretty sure $13 isn't much of a deterrent... that's not the goal anyway... Tesla WANTS you to travel. It's advertising.

The most recent Supercharger update is from a year ago... which state ~90M miles have been supercharged which would have raised ~$5.6M in usage fees at $0.25/min. Meanwhile collecting diverting $2k from every car would raise ~$100M.

1. The $13 doesn't affect the desire to travel in the slightest. But it does affect the desire to use the SC for local charging, and/or to stay plugged in after charging while you finish your meal or whatever.

2. The usage fee revenue to Tesla is not the point. The reduction in local-charging demand and abuse (thus greatly reducing the strain on the SC network and the cost to build it out) is the point. The $5.6m vs $100m comparison is disingenuous, since it ignores the tremendous additional savings to Tesla that the $5.6m fee would engender through reduced buildout costs.
 
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This makes really good sense to me. There will always people who tend to abuse a good thing, and as a result one has to build in both a carrot, and stick!
I say that Tesla Motors has put forth the 'carrot' as demonstrating to the traditional automobile manufacturers what is possible with electric drive. They present the 'stick' as the potential for whomping their butts in sales in every market segment they take on every time the traditional automobile manufacturers refuse to offer viable electric cars. When it comes to their Customers, Tesla Motors has a whole bunch of carrots. One of them is the Supercharger network. There is no need to put the carrots in a box, on a shelf, at the back of the warehouse, walled behind a fence, with an entry fee.
 
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I would expect the total average use (minutes per owner per month) to drop roughly in half with pay-per-minute billing, vs. all-you-can-eat. This would allow Tesla to accommodate the total demand with half as many charging stations. The advantage of pay-per-minute billing has almost nothing to do with the cost of electricity; rather, it's all about the cost of building out the infrastructure. If Tesla can get away with "throwing" $500m instead of $1b into expanding the network for 2020/2021 while satisfying demand, then that would let them either make that much more profit off the cars, or lower the sticker price by that much while maintaining profit margins. Either way, it's a huge win for Tesla, and also for its most price-conscious consumers. The ~$50m/year Tesla might make off the pay-per-minute fee is almost beside the point; the $500m/year saved through the smaller network build-out is much more important.

Either way, a substantial fraction of the cost of building out the network will inevitably be "baked in" to the car's sticker price. The rest can be made up with the per-minute fee. This arrangement would allow Tesla to offer SC capability in the most economical way to the largest number of buyers. Sure, Tesla might be able to sustain their current SC pricing model up to a million cars, but by 2025 there will be a million S/X's alone on the road (presumably also with that pricing model), on top of several million (hopefully!) Model 3's. I think the cleanest way Tesla could transition to the inevitable (IMO) new system would be to apply it to all Model 3's right from the start.
God. I still feel as if you are very seriously trying to fix a problem that does not exist. The Model ☰ will be profitable from the outset. It will be more profitable due to people purchasing options. It will become even more profitable over time as economies of scale come to fruition. It will be profitable because Tesla Motors won't need to spend thousands of dollars per car to advertise it. It will be profitable because Tesla Motors won't have to give up a 6% minimum amount off the top to 'independent franchised dealerships'. It will be profitable because Tesla Motors has hired and will hire extremely capable people to make sure their suppliers, internally and externally, give them great deals on components. Of any and all expenses that Tesla Motors may incur over the next decade, the cost of building, administering, energizing, and maintaining Superchargers is very literally of no concern whatsoever. Because it can be financed by sales of Tesla Generation II vehicles, Model S and Model X alone. Because a relatively small percentage of the profit margin from Model ☰ sales can be directed toward Superchargers as well. Because there will be a whole lot more of the Model ☰ being sold, the revenue generated from those cars will be higher than anything garnered from Model S and Model X. So... Don't worry about it.
 
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1. The $13 doesn't affect the desire to travel in the slightest. But it does affect the desire to use the SC for local charging, and/or to stay plugged in after charging while you finish your meal or whatever.

2. The usage fee revenue to Tesla is not the point. The reduction in local-charging demand and abuse (thus greatly reducing the strain on the SC network and the cost to build it out) is the point. The $5.6m vs $100m comparison is disingenuous, since it ignores the tremendous additional savings to Tesla that the $5.6m fee would engender through reduced buildout costs.
People will charge anyway -- because they will need to do so.

If you continually expand the Supercharger network, there will be no 'strain' to avoid to begin with.

This isn't about being exclusive. It is about being inclusive. It isn't about being rare. It is about being ubiquitous. It isn't about penalizing people. It is about making the ownership of an electric car as easy as possible for people to consider a worthwhile pursuit to adopt in their lives.
 
Blocking someone is going to piss them off a LOT more than charging a fair or even steep fee. Tesla wouldn't risk the PR damage,

Why? There was some ambiguity with the S but that's almost entirely gone now... superchargers are for getting from A -> B... not for saving money on electric bills... that's what solar city is for...

IMO the bigger PR hit would be the loss of the word 'Free' from 'Free long distance charging' even if it is bundled in the price of the car.

A pay per use fee is going apply a solution to 100% of SCs to address ~5% of the problem...
 
God knows I hate it when people write that... What do you mean you will be a 'frequent user' of Superchargers in an urban environment? How much do you drive per week? Since most people apparently only drive less than 40 miles per day... A 200+ mile range should be able to last you at least five days. So, if you charged up on Friday night... Did whatever running around you might do on the weekend, charged up again on Sunday afternoon... You'd be good for the rest of the work week. Right?
If I have an urban charger in downtown SF, I might do all of my local driving on the superchargers (currently I don't have dedicated parking, but will plan to rent one if necessary, or might move). That means roughly 10k miles per year. If I use it only for long distance, then that would be roughly 1000-2000 miles per year (once or twice a year trips between SF and Sacramento or SF and LA).

10k+ miles a year is a frequent user, 1000-2000 miles per year is more typical of a long distance user. Basically as an urban user, I put 5-10x the demand on the network, vs. if I just limit it to long distance.

Currently supercharger miles hover around 10% of total miles traveled by Tesla owners. This is because Tesla haven't expanded their chargers fully into urban territories (they seemed to have abandoned this plan in the US). I repeated it often, but if just 10% of users are using superchargers for local driving, that doubles demand to 19% of total travel. You may hand wave away "just 40 miles per day", but in terms of long distance travel, demand averages out only to 8 miles per day.

A pay per use urban supercharger can make it viable for Tesla to support urban owners (like me) without having dedicated charging.
 
If I have an urban charger in downtown SF, I might do all of my local driving on the superchargers (currently I don't have dedicated parking, but will plan to rent one if necessary, or might move). That means roughly 10k miles per year. If I use it only for long distance, then that would be roughly 1000-2000 miles per year (once or twice a year trips between SF and Sacramento or SF and LA).

10k+ miles a year is a frequent user, 1000-2000 miles per year is more typical of a long distance user. Basically as an urban user, I put 5-10x the demand on the network, vs. if I just limit it to long distance.

Currently supercharger miles hover around 10% of total miles traveled by Tesla owners. This is because Tesla haven't expanded their chargers fully into urban territories (they seemed to have abandoned this plan in the US). I repeated it often, but if just 10% of users are using superchargers for local driving, that doubles demand to 19% of total travel. You may hand wave away "just 40 miles per day", but in terms of long distance travel, demand averages out only to 8 miles per day.

A pay per use urban supercharger can make it viable for Tesla to support urban owners (like me) without having dedicated charging.
Why wouldn't cluster of HPWC work for urban drivers?
 
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