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Model 3 trip range estimates

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I was planning to drive from Darts Farm superchargers Exeter yesterday to Membury Services and the car (SR+) added a short stop via Gordano Bristol. When I tried to remove this stop the car advised to remain below 75mph to reach membury and I would have 4% of battery remaining.

Does anyone know if this is a conservative estimate which would typically be fine to proceed with or is hoping to reach a destination with 4% asking for trouble?
 
The sat nav gives the most accurate estimate of all of the systems, and will continually update and tell you to slow down further if needed. My experience is it's only conservative in the sense it wants you to arrive with about 10% or more in the car before nagging. In general though I look out the window and determine whether the numbers are likely to be ok or not, a nice warm wind less day and I would trust it, strong head wind and raining and I wouldn;t trust 4%. But as Cloggie says, if you're passing a supercharger then a splash and dash to give you a bigger buffer is just safer. If you're not passing one, then just call up the consumption chart and check you're tracking on or below the predicted rate and slow down a bit if needed.
 
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Will agree with the above replies - I did a road trip down to London for a few days on Sunday - I used ABRP to plan out the route beforehand (I had to make a diversion to pick a friend up near Grantham)...

The estimates given by ABRP were way off what actually happened in reality (on the safe side - giving way more usage than actually occurred).

The cars navigation system estimates for the stops and destination throughout the trip was pretty much exact on all occasions - it was the first trip of over 100 miles I've done since getting the car so I'm now fairly confident to trust it.
 
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If I were you, I’d do the equivalent of a ‘splash and dash’. Stop at Gordano for quick top up and then head to Membury. The thought that I might not make it in one go would make me too anxious to enjoy the journey. For the sake of a ten minute stop, it would remove the stress.
 
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