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You keep saying this, despite all available evidence and history demonstrating this is more or less exactly how it works.

You’re right it’s “slightly” more complex than that, but not much. As I said upthread, the only real rule is “if the car built right now can be transported and delivered to a customer far away before the end of the year, and there’s still time to build a new car for the nearby customer, the person far away wins.” Every time. They’ll figure out the logistics later.

-25000 deliveries into California’s 10 delivery centers... in two weeks? That’s nearly 1800 deliveries per day per center. Yeah right.

I can’t answer for all delivery centers, but the San Francisco center on Van Ness couldn’t store even 10% of that number.

Deliveries and VIN assignments are already happening as far west as Texas and Kansas City. My guess is California VINs will start coming in next week, or at least by Thanksgiving.
 
We've surmised they'll deliver the lr awd in Cali soon, then the sr a few weeks later, then the performance last few weeks of the year.

I would hope so. Personally I can't take delivery much beyond X-mas.

Well, you live in San Francisco - how many cars do you think they can fit in the Van Ness showroom? Not many! Walnut Creek - even less. They have no showroom in Marin. That leaves Fremont. (San Jose is probably going to be take a ticket!). They don't have that much room left at Fremont either.

I'm sure SoCal is even more congested. Manufacturer direct delivery has it's drawbacks - like lack of big showroom parking lots. I would have expected Tesla to have learned after they get caught with tons of inventory at EOQ all the time.

Well, I hope what you have surmised is true!
 
I would hope so. Personally I can't take delivery much beyond X-mas.

Well, you live in San Francisco - how many cars do you think they can fit in the Van Ness showroom? Not many! Walnut Creek - even less. They have no showroom in Marin. That leaves Fremont. (San Jose is probably going to be take a ticket!). They don't have that much room left at Fremont either.

I'm sure SoCal is even more congested. Manufacturer direct delivery has it's drawbacks - like lack of big showroom parking lots. I would have expected Tesla to have learned after they get caught with tons of inventory at EOQ all the time.

Well, I hope what you have surmised is true!

Marin has a showroom in Marin and a service center, but no delivery center. I’m not aware of a DC in Walnut Creek, and was not offered that choice when ordering. Only SF and Fremont.
 
-25000 deliveries into California’s 10 delivery centers... in two weeks? That’s nearly 1800 deliveries per day per center. Yeah right.

I can’t answer for all delivery centers, but the San Francisco center on Van Ness couldn’t store even 10% of that number.

Deliveries and VIN assignments are already happening as far west as Texas and Kansas City. My guess is California VINs will start coming in next week, or at least by Thanksgiving.

I agree. There are more Tesla's around here than Mercedes - and I never thought that would happen. No place to deliver them in 2 weeks and no place to keep them.
 
Apologies for crossing over to chime in here! Ordered a MS on 10/5 but thought you all would find this response interesting... email from my sales associate today stating:

'Thank you for being so patient about this and understanding. The latest news I've heard about this is that Tesla will officially begin to build all vehicles for the United States starting December 15th. There may be a chance they start sooner. You are one of my clients that ordered the earliest, you should definitely be getting your vehicle before EOY and eligible for the Federal Tax Credit.'

Considering the movement of M3s from the East to the Midwest at the moment, I found the sentence 'Tesla will officially begin to build all vehicles for the United States starting December 15th' rather funny. Just thought I share that with those waiting in California as well. Maybe you get a chuckle out of it.
If that's the case then why is the eastcoast & southern states getting their VIN & deliveries. I strongly believe these SA have no clue what's going on & making stuff up along the way. Only time will tell when we will get our cars.
 
The 2 weeks was for a Model S. Doesn't mean it applies to Model 3 as well.

I think the reason why Tesla leaves the North Cal the last is because this is the only way to sell the cars made in the last days in the given quarter. Once they don't need to fight for quarterly delivery numbers any more, they will be able to balance it better.
 
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The 2 weeks was for a Model S. Doesn't mean it applies to Model 3 as well.

I think the reason why Tesla leaves the North Cal the is because this is the only way to sell the cars made in the last days in the given quarter. Once they don't need to fight for quarterly delivery numbers any more, they will be able to balance it better.
So if we ordered in the beginning of October vs. now - we still are going to get delivered last? How are they going to deliver what must be 15-20% of the cars in the last 2 weeks of a quarter? Perhaps they will deliver the cars ordered in mid November on - but all of them?
 
So if we ordered in the beginning of October vs. now - we still are going to get delivered last? How are they going to deliver what must be 15-20% of the cars in the last 2 weeks of a quarter? Perhaps they will deliver the cars ordered in mid November on - but all of them?


I don't know. If you take a look at the ships, it's always the 2nd month that has the highest amount shipped (except for this Q4 where it is the first as of now), so the first month was definitely meant for overseas but I don't know what percentage is that of the total cars made.
 

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Ordered a SR+ 10/15 with white exterior, black interior and 19inch wheels. No VIN or Delivery Time yet. Been trying to get a definite answer with my SA (who hasn't been the best in providing an answer nor did the online chat on ETA). Only thing I heard from them was they're "filling orders this week".

Confirmed with my SA the originally ordered price will be honored despite the price increase on your accounts. Checked my account just now and saw my price was reduced.

The "2 Week ETA Delivery" was gone as of Monday and replaced with:
"We will reach out to you to schedule your delivery date. Delivery time frame will be based on reservation date, order date, delivery location and vehicle configuration."
 
LR is currently making its way across the US right now. I don't know how long that's going to take, can't be more than two weeks? So, SR+ people who ordered 2 weeks+ ago, be prepared for a late Nov early Dec VIN for sure and possible delivery. SR+ delivery could even be early - mid Dec for west coast and I'm thinking during that time, M3P will start making it's way westward.
 
LR is currently making its way across the US right now. I don't know how long that's going to take, can't be more than two weeks? So, SR+ people who ordered 2 weeks+ ago, be prepared for a late Nov early Dec VIN for sure and possible delivery. SR+ delivery could even be early - mid Dec for west coast and I'm thinking during that time, M3P will start making it's way westward.

That’s what I’m hearing but I’m hoping that it comes way sooner. Rental car is not cheap, mind as well start paying for a month.
My SA kept saying I should have it within the month. But there’s a spec exactly what I ordered in the showroom and I’ve been bugging him to sell to me. Funny how I have to almost beg Tesla to give me a car that they have in the showroom..
 
LR is currently making its way across the US right now. I don't know how long that's going to take, can't be more than two weeks? So, SR+ people who ordered 2 weeks+ ago, be prepared for a late Nov early Dec VIN for sure and possible delivery. SR+ delivery could even be early - mid Dec for west coast and I'm thinking during that time, M3P will start making it's way westward.
I don’t understand. I ordered 10/11 (LR AWD, Red)—- have not heard anything and given all the conflicting answers, I can’t expect a delivery date.

We have no real information but a few conflicting SA reports.
 
The "2 Week ETA Delivery" was gone as of Monday and replaced with:
"We will reach out to you to schedule your delivery date. Delivery time frame will be based on reservation date, order date, delivery location and vehicle configuration."

Wow, I'd hate that, so indefinite. Mine has always said "6-10 weeks from order date", and it's the first thing I look for when I scan my account. Hopefully they can change that to give you a better indication for delivery date. Or better yet, give you a VIN. ;)
 
Wow, I'd hate that, so indefinite. Mine has always said "6-10 weeks from order date", and it's the first thing I look for when I scan my account. Hopefully they can change that to give you a better indication for delivery date. Or better yet, give you a VIN. ;)
The "2 Week ETA Delivery" was gone as of Monday and replaced with:
"We will reach out to you to schedule your delivery date. Delivery time frame will be based on reservation date, order date, delivery location and vehicle configuration."

Mine changed to that in the last few days. What it says to me is, “you will get your car when we get around to it. Don’t get your hopes up - you simply don’t matter one bit. Yes, you may have ordered relatively early in the quarter, but you can count on orders placed later than yours to be fulfilled promptly.”

This is DMV -talk!
 
California Clean Air Rebate is dropping from $2500 to $2000 for applications after Dec 3rd. Lets hope we get things early.

Indeed.

PSA: If you take delivery late November or early December, get those rebate applications in the mail ASAP. The December 3 deadline is for applications -received-. It may be worthwhile to use express/certified mail (with return receipt) to ensure it gets there in time and you have a paper trail to prove it.

This is doubly important if your MSRP is > $60k or your rebate will be $0.
 
Mine changed to that in the last few days. What it says to me is, “you will get your car when we get around to it. Don’t get your hopes up - you simply don’t matter one bit. Yes, you may have ordered relatively early in the quarter, but you can count on orders placed later than yours to be fulfilled promptly.”

This is DMV -talk!

Did you order when it was still "2 weeks"? I ordered after it changed to 6-10 weeks.