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Model S resale values

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Wshowell, Mar 17, 2015.

  1. Wshowell

    Wshowell Member

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    Location:
    Arroyo Grande Ca
    Here we go again....Please poke holes in my analysis. Plenty of people smarter than I on this forum but below is how I see it.
    I agree that this forum is probably the worst place to try to sell if expecting top dollar and the best place to buy if priced right. There are just so many well informed buyers aware of the supply/demand situation going on. I look at the overall market four ways: allofcraigs.com - Search ALL of Craigslist, cars.com, ebaymotors and TMC. In general the sweet spot to sell quick with mileage between 5k and 25k seems to be: P85 $72-$77k, S85 $65-72k, S60 $58-62K. Some options (dual Chargers, yacht flooring, 21 vs 19, third row seats) appear to have very little effect on the overall pricing, some options like Pano, Tech Package and Air Suspension have a much larger effect and low mileage seems to be expected and high mileage greatly discounted (>12k annually is excessive). Colors that seem to bring in the price premiums (white, silver, grey) and price discounts (black, blue, brown). The biggest killer of resale value seems to be low VIN (reliability, built quality, age, lack of newest features or combo?) and age (2012 ouch, 2013 snore, 2014 without auto-pilot meh and 2014 with auto-pilot big premium). Seems to me the depreciation curve is @ 2%/month and $1 mile which makes sense considering Tesla's own model is 1%/month and $1/mile for their demo/loaners. I'm thinking values will take a quick and painful 10% drop when the Xs start to reach garages and then flatten out by mid 2016 with used prices:p85 <$60k, S85<$55k and S60<$45k. The Tesla buy back program will also become a major player is used resale valuation. Well, there are my total amateur guesstimates for everyone to poke holes into and ultimately time will prove just how inaccurate. Of course, the car is amazing, life is short, talk is cheap and hard earned money is well worth spending but it's a fun mental exercise for me.
     
  2. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    Hmmmm using your formula I'm not willing to sell my 25month old P85 with 65k miles by donating it to a buyer for free plus giving them $21k of spending cash to go along with it. Does. Not. Compute.
     
  3. PokerBroker

    PokerBroker Member

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    I'll take that deal ;) I think that math holds true until about 50% depreciation before it slows down considerably. I would peg your car in the mid 60s today if you were selling and I imagine Teslas trade-in offer would be in the 40s... About right?
     
  4. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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    Over my dead body!! lol I will not sell for less than what I paid for it. Give or take a few dollars. Haha :). Honestly I have no idea what it's worth but it doesn't matter as I'm going to drive it to my grave.
     
  5. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    I think your reasoning is very sound but only until the car reaches about 50-55% depreciation and then the rate of depreciation levels off.

    This is true for any premium car where typical buyers of the car prefer to move onto a newer model in 2-4 years creating extra supply. The extra supply but is just now starting to happen since the Model S is so new. The figures you quoted can be had now if you know where to look. It's always amusing to see people trying to sell their Model S for about what they paid for it when the rebates are factored in :)

    A P85/P85D lease is in the 1600-1700 range easily, not accounting for the initial $7K payment. These lease payments are such because the cars depreciate that much. A one year old P85/P85D, depending on options will depreciate $20-$26K just the first year. with about an additional $20K of depreciation the second year.

    In the coming years and months we can expect the following and they will all have an effect on depreciation. Basically buy what you want and enjoy it, these cars are not an investment.

    + Higher capacity battery with possible faster charging circuitry. Perhaps dual chargers standard?
    + Better interior. They will most likely transplant the better Model X interior to the Model S to keep manufacturing simple.
    + Enhanced suite of Autopilot sensors. The current system still racks 360 degree camera and rear and side medium and long range radar.
    + We may even see exterior design changes.

    All in all in about 3-4 years we will see residuals in the 50-something % range and that's really not too bad and still better than any other premium car around $100K.

     

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