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Model X Crash on US-101 (Mountain View, CA)

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This is the exact situation in which the Nissan implementation of Mobileye has it all over Tesla's AP IMHO. With Tesla, AutoPilot is an all-or-nothing deal. Either AP is steering or you are, but never both. In fact, some physical force is required to wrest control of the car away from AutoPilot. And, once you have taken over, AP is disabled permanently until you manually reactivate it.

With Nissan's ProPilot Assist, the steering is perfectly natural and both the driver and ProPilot Assist can be steering at the same time without totally disengaging ProPilot Assist. It's more like a Driver's Ed car with two steering wheels where both can make steering adjustments as necessary to avoid a problem. You can even change lanes manually, and ProPilot Assist will reactivate as soon as it has clear lane markers again.

Honda Lane Keep Assist is the same. It works with the driver, and will re-engage automatically after lane change or driver steering input. Very smooth and not intrusive at all.
 
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Hmmm.. yeah I suppose it's hard to claim FSD if a human is still required in the loop. The Uber AZ accident is very concerning in this regard. I do agree though as you say when the Tesla system is fully able to track the other objects in it's environment the EAP experience will be greatly improved.
How about look at the equation this way:
AP = FSD - Human Monitoring. So, FSD already capable of human like monitoring right?
 
When I first started using AP I was apprehensive. As I became more familiar with it and gained confidence
I found it to be relaxing in that I could let the car deal with the stop-and-go of commuting.
But I’ve always kept my hands on the wheel.
The few times that AP has made a poor choice while engaged have reinforced to me the importance of doing so.

In this video, the updated AP 1018.10.4 handles now correctly a 360 degree round curb at 35 mph,
but the driver had to deactivate the AP when merging into the freeway.

If the driver had not been making attention and be prepared,
(and was looking at his phone during the past 5 seconds or so)
he would have not noticed the lane merge and semi truck on the other lane.
(there was not flashing red alert 'hand on the wheels' request).

AP Curb Handling 1 .jpg AP Curb Handling 2 .jpg AP Curb Handling 3 .jpg

 
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My bet is the majority of cars currently within a 3 year lease go back without the FSD having been delivered.
What will be interesting is when the bluff is called. On the Tesla website they point out that rules and regulations stand in the way of FSD.
Yet this month California is allowing fully autonomous vehicles on the roads. Is there anything in California preventing FSD from being implemented?
"It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. "

Is there anything preventing Tesla in California from flipping the switch to turn on FSD at this point for those who paid for it?
 
No! AP is only a sub-function of FSD. AP lacks (or requires) the monitoring functions to provide the necessary safe autopilot driving.
Sorry.. not to abuse bandwidth but I believe we're trying to say the same thing..
AP = auto lane centering that requires vigilant human oversight... and hopefully someday AEB that exceeds what every current OEM adaptive cruise control system can already do.
FSD = AP without human oversight +++++
 
What will be interesting is when the bluff is called. On the Tesla website they point out that rules and regulations stand in the way of FSD.
Yet this month California is allowing fully autonomous vehicles on the roads. Is there anything in California preventing FSD from being implemented?
"It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. "

Is there anything preventing Tesla in California from flipping the switch to turn on FSD at this point for those who paid for it?
California approved fully autonomous vehicles on the road for testing. To do so, law enforcement has to be able to communicate with vehicles and have an agreed-upon 'law enforcement interaction plan'. That probably qualifies as something that 'would prevent Tesla from flipping the switch to turn on FSD at this point'. :)

I'm not saying Tesla does or doesn't qualify for testing - I just didn't want to see the misconception that Tesla could currently sell self-driving cars in California become fact (not that we would do anything like that here on TMC). The most they can do is test FSD.

Edit: Oh, and one more pesky thing. Our lawmakers in DC must come to an agreement regarding self-driving standards, before selling to consumers. They did pass legislation last fall, but that was just legislation that said they need to do that. Like a plan for a plan. Or a meeting about meetings :). Until they do that, testing for cars can only be done in the states that have approved it. And only testing.
 
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California approved fully autonomous vehicles on the road for testing. To do so, law enforcement has to be able to communicate with vehicles and have an agreed-upon 'law enforcement interaction plan'. That probably qualifies as something that 'would prevent Tesla from flipping the switch to turn on FSD at this point'. :)

I'm not saying Tesla does or doesn't qualify for testing - I just didn't want to see the misconception that Tesla could currently sell self-driving cars in California become fact (not that we would do anything like that here on TMC). The most they can do is test FSD.

Edit: Oh, and one more pesky thing. Our lawmakers in DC must come to an agreement regarding self-driving standards, before selling to consumers. They did pass legislation last fall, but that was just legislation that said they need to do that. Like a plan for a plan. Or a meeting about meetings :). Until they do that, testing for cars can only be done in the states that have approved it. And only testing.

Would that special state communication require new hardware on the vehicles?

This reminds me of my insurance company 'offering' (haha) to have a device monitor my driving in order to reduce my premium.
Noooooooooooooo thank you.
Seems like an onerous trade off to have FSD yet have it in the back of your mind that you're going 60 in a 45mph construction zone and the state knows about it.
 
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Would that special state communication require new hardware on the vehicles?

This reminds me of my insurance company 'offering' (haha) to have a device monitor my driving in order to reduce my premium.
Noooooooooooooo thank you.
Seems like an onerous trade off to have FSD yet have it in the back of your mind that you're going 60 in a 45mph construction zone and the state knows about it.
Again, the communication requirement is for the test cars. I have no idea what federal minimal standards for consumer-purchased FSD will be implemented. Or when the folks in DC would actually be able to come to an agreement.

Self-driving cars will be disruptive for people who are aging in place. Instead of losing independence because they are no longer capable of driving, they will buy a self-driving car (or summon one from a service). The one of the largest lobbying organizations is (yep) AARP - I predict that AARP will get involved in pushing to get the standards defined & implemented nation-wide, because it serves the interests of their members. Japan, for instance, has been pushing hard on this precisely because of their aging population. AARP's involvement will probably help push our lawmakers into finding common ground. Just speculation on my part, of course.
 
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Oh, please. Let's stop pretending that Tesla has some magic FSD software just sitting on the shelf waiting for government officials to act. What horsesh*t.
No one is saying that. I think I was pretty clear that I wasn't commenting on the state of Tesla's software - we were only discussing the barriers to getting consumer FSD on the roads. Sold by any company.
 
Oh, please. Let's stop pretending that Tesla has some magic FSD software just sitting on the shelf waiting for government officials to act. What horsesh*t.
I see the video on the autopilot website where the car drives several miles and then parks itself. The hardware on the current vehicles is advertised as being ready for FSD.
The only difference between the car in the demo and one coming off the line must be a software update. The code is out there waiting on regulatory approval.
Am I right in assuming that many customers have already paid for FSD? They couldn't sell FSD if they weren't close to delivering.
 
Again, the communication requirement is for the test cars. I have no idea what federal minimal standards for consumer-purchased FSD will be implemented. Or when the folks in DC would actually be able to come to an agreement.

Probably the best way to roll out full-autonomy regulations is by starting with fleet operators working under state laws/permits.

It's much easier for a state to each regulate/monitor a few fleet operators than a bunch of competing/changing self-drive technologies in a huge number of individually-owned cars. A fleet can operate entirely within a state, so there is no need to try and figure out a nationwide standard in the early years of the technology (which would be a bad idea, since there are so many ideas about how to make this all work). Plus, if there is a problem with one or more fleets, they can be ordered to make changes or stop operating. It's much more difficult to make happen with individually owned cars.

I know this would create problems for Tesla's business model (since they not only plan to focus on selling individually-owned autonomous cars, but have actually sold cars with the "feature"), but it will be a much safer way to roll out a new and potentially dangerous technology. Otherwise, it'll be the wild west; as carmakers rush to get kind-of-works autonomy into their individually-sold vehicles.
 
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What will be interesting is when the bluff is called. On the Tesla website they point out that rules and regulations stand in the way of FSD.
Yet this month California is allowing fully autonomous vehicles on the roads. Is there anything in California preventing FSD from being implemented?
"It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. "

Is there anything preventing Tesla in California from flipping the switch to turn on FSD at this point for those who paid for it?
Yes. I don’t think FSD software is ready yet. If AP2 gets still confused with lane markings, FSD would be no better. FSD requires for AP2 to work very well.