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Tally updated. Might be interesting to either add Chinese numbers into the trend/rate of reservations or make a separate column as it looks like club.autohome (& Maoing - thanks) are a good source for Chinese reservation trends.
Thanks, tally updated. Ever so close to 15k total! There seems to be a pickup in the pace (practically double normal activity since end of April).
NigelM
Recovering Member
The rate in the past 8 days spiked!
Some interesting stats:
- 548 per month for April (~ 20 per day)
- We are now at 18.5/day since Feb 10 launch
- Now at 35 per day so far in May (well up from the 15-20 per day in the past 6 months and well on track to blast that out of the park for May!
Without knowing a huge part of the landscape of what might be catalyzing reservations in other countries, it seems:
1. No big catalysts in Europe (maybe some expiring incentives?)
2. No big catalysts in US (delayed production would certainly not drive reservations, right?)
3. First Model S deliveries in China, surrounded by huge publicity there, makes it look like China is likely accounting for most of the doubling of Model X from 18 reservations/day in April to 35/day in May. So Elon's probably right (duh), China may well surpass the US as a market in a few years, justifying a Chinese assembly plant (which will drive more sales due to huge savings to Chinese customers as import taxes are waived).
My guess is the same is happening for the Model S as well.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Could have something to do with last weeks earnings release; IOW, Tesla was in the news a lot.
The reason that the data is not there is because Model X, although it looks like an SUV, is really a new class of vehicle. Because of the inherent advantages of powertrain packaging it will rival utility of a minivan, while looking like an SUV, costing less than a Prius to operate, and giving premium performance sedans hard time to keep up in acceleration from the stand still. There is nothing really on the market which you can use to model Model X sales relative to Model S sales. At this point I will go with the EM prediction that the sales will equal or perhaps exceed the sales of Model S.
Having said that, I CAN give you an example of SUV outselling comparably priced sedan from the same manufacturer: look at sales of Acura MDX vs. sales of Acura TL: in 2013 Acura sold 53,040 copies of MDX and 24,318 TLs.
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+1 For sure. Also feel free to update the tally directly if you like. But no pressure, even the post alone is very appreciated.
Where is the link to actual tally?
>>> I found it. I wasn't realized that the #2 is a wiki post. In the future, I'll update tally also but I prefer to add post in parallel because I'm not the actual buyer
Will try to direct Chinese buyers to update tally by themselves if they are comfortable with English.
>>> I found it. I wasn't realized that the #2 is a wiki post. In the future, I'll update tally also but I prefer to add post in parallel because I'm not the actual buyer
Will try to direct Chinese buyers to update tally by themselves if they are comfortable with English.
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Where is the link to actual tally?
>>> I found it. I wasn't realized that the #2 is a wiki post. In the future, I'll update tally also but I prefer to add post in parallel because I'm not the actual buyer
Will try to direct Chinese buyers to update tally by themselves if they are comfortable with English.
Cool and thank-you. Also do you know if there is a Model S tally going on over there? I checked around there, but didn't find anything. Thx in advance.
Vger
Active Member
To me, very anecdotally, it seems that a lot of my friends (both Canada and US) that have been on the fence for a long time (1+ years) are all of a sudden waking up and thinking they have to have a Tesla. A majority of them are wanting to wait for the X. If my tiny sample is in any way representative, I think that there may be another wave of demand building. I think it is just the psychology of watching your trusted friend now zipping about the continent(s), racking up miles (kms), grinning all the time. Those that are just a bit less adventurous, who could not put up with the uncertainty of Tesla's early survival, are now realizing it is safe to dive in and enjoy.
I think that the true potential market for these cars is WAY bigger than the majority of press and financial analysts can comprehend, or will accept.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Two additional data points on the market for the Model X being larger than the Model S:
1. I did a car show last weekend (Exotics at RTC) - I've showed my Model S there several times last year. This was the first time this year, so it's been a while. Last year it was all questions about Tesla and the Model S. This year I got more questions about the Model X than I did about my car that was sitting right there! My favorite, guy walks up: "So, this is the car that's built on the same platform as the Model X, right?"
2. Of the 10 people on my team at work, none have talked about getting a Model S despite many test rides in mine, but three are planning to get Model X's.
1. I did a car show last weekend (Exotics at RTC) - I've showed my Model S there several times last year. This was the first time this year, so it's been a while. Last year it was all questions about Tesla and the Model S. This year I got more questions about the Model X than I did about my car that was sitting right there! My favorite, guy walks up: "So, this is the car that's built on the same platform as the Model X, right?"
2. Of the 10 people on my team at work, none have talked about getting a Model S despite many test rides in mine, but three are planning to get Model X's.
Done...done...done. I've been waiting to do this for over a year, and now it is done! Reservation #9898 for my Model X. I can now stop going online and designing/redesiging a Model S (or maybe I can't ). It's a new dawn, it's a new day...and I'm feelin' good.:biggrin:
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